Simulating emergent urban form: desakota in China

We propose that the emergent phenomenon know as ?desakota?, the rapidurbanization of densely populated rural populations in the newlydeveloped world, particularly China, can be simulated using agent-basedmodels which combine both local and global features. We argue thatdeskota represents a surprising and unusual form of urbanization wellmatchedto processes of land development that are driven from the bottomup but moderated by the higher-level macro economy. We develop asimple logic which links local household reform to global urban reform,translating these ideas into a model structure which reflects these twoscales. Our model first determines the rate of growth of different spatialaggregates using linear statistical analysis. It then allocates this growth tothe local level using developer agents who determine the transformation ormutation of rural households to urban pursuits based on local land costs,accessibilities, and growth management practices. The model is applied todesakota development in the Suzhou region between 1990 and 2000. Weshow how the global rates of change predicted at the township level in theWuxian City region surrounding Suzhou are tempered by localtransformations of rural to urban land uses which we predict using cellularautomata rules. The model, which is implemented in the RePast 3software, is validated using a blend of data taken from remote sensing andgovernment statistical sources. It represents an example of generativesocial science that fuses plausible behavior with formalized logics matchedagainst empirical evidence, essential in showing how novel patterns ofurbanization such as desakota emerge

Melham's Conjecture on Odd Power Sums of Fibonacci Numbers

Ozeki and Prodinger showed that the odd power sum of the first several consecutive Fibonacci numbers of even order is equal to a polynomial evaluated at certain Fibonacci number of odd order. We prove that this polynomial and its derivative both vanish at $1$, and will be an integer polynomial after multiplying it by a product of the first consecutive Lucas numbers of odd order. This presents an affirmative answer to a conjecture of Melham.Comment: 15page

Visualization in spatial modeling

This chapter deals with issues arising from a central theme in contemporary computer modeling - visualization. We first tie visualization to varieties of modeling along the continuum from iconic to symbolic and then focus on the notion that our models are so intrinsically complex that there are many different types of visualization that might be developed in their understanding and implementation. This focuses the debate on the very way of 'doing science' in that patterns and processes of any complexity can be better understood through visualizing the data, the simulations, and the outcomes that such models generate. As we have grown more sensitive to the problem of complexity in all systems, we are more aware that the twin goals of parsimony and verifiability which have dominated scientific theory since the 'Enlightenment' are up for grabs: good theories and models must 'look right' despite what our statistics and causal logics tell us. Visualization is the cutting edge of this new way of thinking about science but its styles vary enormously with context. Here we define three varieties: visualization of complicated systems to make things simple or at least explicable, which is the role of pedagogy; visualization to explore unanticipated outcomes and to refine processes that interact in unanticipated ways; and visualization to enable end users with no prior understanding of the science but a deep understanding of the problem to engage in using models for prediction, prescription, and control. We illustrate these themes with a model of an agricultural market which is the basis of modern urban economics - the von Thünen model of land rent and density; a model of urban development based on interacting spatial and temporal processes of land development - the DUEM model; and a pedestrian model of human movement at the fine scale where control of such movements to meet standards of public safety is intrinsically part of the model about which the controllers know intimately. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006

Dynamics of urban sprawl

This paper introduces a framework for understanding the dynamics of urban growth,particularly the continuing problem of urban sprawl. The models we present are based on transitions from vacant land to established development. We propose that the essential mechanism of transition is analogous to the way an epidemic is generated within a susceptible population, with waves of development being generated from the conversion of available land to new development and redevelopment through the aging process. We first outline the standard aggregate model in differential equation form, showing how different variants (including logistic, exponential, predator-prey models) can be derived for various urban growth situations. We then generalize the model to a spatial system and show how sprawl can be conceived as a process of both interaction/reaction and diffusion. We operationalize the model as a cellular automata (CA) which implies that diffusion is entirely local, and we then illustrate how waves of development and redevelopment characterizing both sprawl and aging of the existing urban stock, can be simulated.Finally we show how the model can be adapted to a real urban situation - the AnnArbor area in Eastern Michigan - where we demonstrate how waves of development are absorbed and modified by particular historical contingencies associated with the re-existing urban structure

Two-stage hybrid feature selection algorithms for diagnosing erythemato-squamous diseases

This paper proposes two-stage hybrid feature selection algorithms to build the stable and efficient diagnostic models where a new accuracy measure is introduced to assess the models. The two-stage hybrid algorithms adopt Support Vector Machines (SVM) as a classification tool, and the extended Sequential Forward Search (SFS), Sequential Forward Floating Search (SFFS), and Sequential Backward Floating Search (SBFS), respectively, as search strategies, and the generalized F-score (GF) to evaluate the importance of each feature. The new accuracy measure is used as the criterion to evaluated the performance of a temporary SVM to direct the feature selection algorithms. These hybrid methods combine the advantages of filters and wrappers to select the optimal feature subset from the original feature set to build the stable and efficient classifiers. To get the stable, statistical and optimal classifiers, we conduct 10-fold cross validation experiments in the first stage; then we merge the 10 selected feature subsets of the 10-cross validation experiments, respectively, as the new full feature set to do feature selection in the second stage for each algorithm. We repeat the each hybrid feature selection algorithm in the second stage on the one fold that has got the best result in the first stage. Experimental results show that our proposed two-stage hybrid feature selection algorithms can construct efficient diagnostic models which have got better accuracy than that built by the corresponding hybrid feature selection algorithms without the second stage feature selection procedures. Furthermore our methods have got better classification accuracy when compared with the available algorithms for diagnosing erythemato-squamous diseases

Escherichia coli of sequence type 3835 carrying blaNDM-1, blaCTX-M-15, blaCMY-42 and blaSHV-12

New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase (NDM) represents a serious challenge for treatment and public health. A carbapenem-resistant Escherichia coli clinical strain WCHEC13-8 was subjected to antimicrobial susceptibility tests, whole genome sequencing and conjugation experiments. It was resistant to imipenem (MIC, >256 μg/ml) and meropenem (MIC, 128 μg/ml) and belonged to ST3835. blaNDM-1 was the only carbapenemase gene detected. Strain WCHEC13-8 also had a plasmid-borne AmpC gene (blaCMY-42) and two extended-spectrum β-lactamase genes (blaCTX-M-15 and blaSHV-12). blaNDM-1 and blaSHV-12 were carried by a 54-kb IncX3 self-transmissible plasmid, which is identical to plasmid pNDM-HF727 from Enterobacter cloacae. blaCMY-42 was carried by a 64-kb IncI1 plasmid and blaCTX-M-15 was located on a 141-kb plasmid with multiple F replicons (replicon type: F36:A4:B1). blaCMY-42 was in a complicated context and the mobilisation of blaCMY-42 was due to the transposition of IS Ecp1 by misidentifying its right-end boundary. Genetic context of blaNDM-1 in strain WCHEC13-8 was closely related to those on IncX3 plasmids in various Enterobacteriaceae species in China. In conclusion, a multidrug-resistant ST3835 E. coli clinical strain carrying blaNDM-1, blaCTX-M-15, blaCMY-42 and blaSHV-12 was identified. IncX3 plasmids may be making a significant contribution to the dissemination of blaNDM among Enterobacteriaceae in China