Macroeconomic consequences of global endogenous migration: a general equilibrium analysis

In this paper, we analyze the consequences of endogenous migration flows over the coming decades in a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy. Such an approach has two major benefits. First, it offers a global perspective on the economic consequences of international migration flows by taking into account effects on both the destination and the origin regions. Second, by allowing migration flows to be related to economic fundamentals, they are determined endogenously in the model. We proceed by estimating the determinants of migration in an econometric model and then endogenizing migration flows by introducing the estimated relationships between demographic and income developments in our world model. We show that (i) migration could have a substantial impact on GDP growth in sending and destination regions; (ii) endogenizing migration induces important changes in the volume and the distribution of migration flows between regions compared to the United-Nations projections; (iii) the size of these flows, although substantial, will not be sufficient to counteract the impact of population ageing in the receiving regions.CGEM, Migration, International capital flows.

Is there a ‘pig cycle' in the labour supply of doctors? How training and immigration policies respond to physician shortages

Shortage of physicians is a big challenge in many OECD countries. Policy makers try to tackle this issue by increasing the number of students entering medical school and by recruiting internationally. This paper investigates which strategies OECD governments adopt and when these policies are effective in addressing the medical shortages. Due to the length of time medical training requires, the impact of the expansion of medical school capacity should take longer to be effective than the recruitment of foreign-trained physicians. We have built a dataset that comprises information about physician shortages, the number of medical school graduates, and the number of foreign-trained physicians. We find that OECD governments, after a period of medical shortages, produce a higher number of medical graduates in the long run but in the short term face an increasing emigration of their practicing physicians and recruit highly from abroad. IV estimations confirm the effect through the immigration strategy. Simulation results show the limits of only recruiting abroad in the long term but also point out its appropriateness, in the short term, where there is a recurrent cycle of shortage/surplus in the labour supply of physicians