Uncertainty Analysis Framework - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Model

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) embarked on a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of the predictions being made with a site-wide groundwater flow and transport model at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. In FY 2000, the focus of the initiative was on the characterization of major uncertainties in the current conceptual model that would affect model predictions. The long-term goals of the initiative are the development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology in future assessments and analyses using the site-wide model. This report focuses on the development and implementation of an uncertainty analysis framework

Technical review of entrained design report

Morgantown Energy Technology Center (METC) is planning to expand its in-house coal gasification R&D capabilities by installing a research facility that can address a number of concepts including entrained, fluid bed, and catalytic gasification and flash pyrolysis. This Advanced Gasification Concepts (AGC) facility design, as it currently stands, includes piping and instrumentation diagrams, vessel drawings and specifications, instrumentation lists and specifications, and equipment layout and isometric drawings. Before the design is finalized, a critique is needed to ensure that the intended flexibility and objectives can be met. The design approach was evaluated to determine whether the present design will meet the research objectives, including the need for flexibility. Heat and material balances, critical velocity requirements, vessel arrangements, potential operational problems, and instrumentation were reviewed. The mechanical design review included a critique of the drawings and specifications, adherence to standards and codes, materials of construction, vessels, piping, valves, heaters, and fittings. In addition, utilities requirements, heat transfer and particulate removal calculations, and pumping and heat exchanger requirements were checked. An evaluation of the equipment cost includes a critique of the reliability of the equipment cost breakdown, the areas of cost uncertainty, and the areas for potential cost savings. A safety analysis is also provided

Three-dimensional analysis of future groundwater flow conditions and contaminant plume transport in the Hanford Site unconfined aquifer system: FY 1996 and 1997 status report

A three-dimensional numerical model of groundwater flow and transport, based on the Coupled Fluid Energy, and Solute Transport (CFEST) code, was developed for the Hanford Site to support the Hanford Groundwater Project (HGWP), managed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The model was developed to increase the understanding and better forecast the migration of several contaminant plumes being monitored by the HGWP, and to support the Hanford Site Composite Analysis for low-level waste disposal in the 200-Area Plateau. Recent modeling efforts have focused on continued refinement of an initial version of the three-dimensional model developed in 1995 and its application to simulate future transport of selected contaminant plumes in the aquifer system. This version of the model was updated using a more current version of the CFEST code called CFEST96. Prior to conducting simulations of contaminant transport with the three-dimensional model, a previous steady-state, two-dimensional model of the unconfined aquifer system was recalibrated to 1979 water-table conditions with a statistical inverse method implemented in the CFEST-INV computer code. The results of the recalibration were used to refine the three-dimensional conceptual model and to calibrate it with a conceptualization that preserves the two-dimensional hydraulic properties and knowledge of the aquifer`s three-dimensional properties for the same 1979 water-table conditions. The transient behavior of the three-dimensional flow model was also calibrated by adjusting model storage properties (specific yield) until transient water-table predictions approximated observed water-table elevations between 1979 and 1996

Transient Inverse Calibration of Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts from 1943 to 1996--Alternative Conceptual Model Considering Interaction with Uppermost Basalt Confined Aquifer

The baseline three-dimensional transient inverse model for the estimation of site-wide scale flow parameters, including their uncertainties, using data on the transient behavior of the unconfined aquifer system over the entire historical period of Hanford operations, has been modified to account for the effects of basalt intercommunication between the Hanford unconfined aquifer and the underlying upper basalt confined aquifer. Both the baseline and alternative conceptual models (ACM-1) considered only the groundwater flow component and corresponding observational data in the 3-Dl transient inverse calibration efforts. Subsequent efforts will examine both groundwater flow and transport. Comparisons of goodness of fit measures and parameter estimation results for the ACM-1 transient inverse calibrated model with those from previous site-wide groundwater modeling efforts illustrate that the new 3-D transient inverse model approach will strengthen the technical defensibility of the final model(s) and provide the ability to incorporate uncertainty in predictions related to both conceptual model and parameter uncertainty. These results, however, indicate that additional improvements are required to the conceptual model framework. An investigation was initiated at the end of this basalt inverse modeling effort to determine whether facies-based zonation would improve specific yield parameter estimation results (ACM-2). A description of the justification and methodology to develop this zonation is discussed

Tritium monitoring in groundwater and evaluation of model predictions for the Hanford Site 200 Area Effluent Treatment Facility

The Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF) disposal site, also known as the State-Approved Land Disposal Site (SALDS), receives treated effluent containing tritium, which is allowed to infiltrate through the soil column to the water table. Tritium was first detected in groundwater monitoring wells around the facility in July 1996. The SALDS groundwater monitoring plan requires revision of a predictive groundwater model and reevaluation of the monitoring well network one year from the first detection of tritium in groundwater. This document is written primarily to satisfy these requirements and to report on analytical results for tritium in the SALDS groundwater monitoring network through April 1997. The document also recommends an approach to continued groundwater monitoring for tritium at the SALDS. Comparison of numerical groundwater models applied over the last several years indicate that earlier predictions, which show tritium from the SALDS approaching the Columbia River, were too simplified or overly robust in source assumptions. The most recent modeling indicates that concentrations of tritium above 500 pCi/L will extend, at most, no further than {approximately}1.5 km from the facility, using the most reasonable projections of ETF operation. This extent encompasses only the wells in the current SALDS tritium-tracking network

Transient Inverse Calibration of Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts - 1943 to 1996

This report describes a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of predictions made with the Hanford site-wide groundwater flow and transport model. The focus is on characterizing major uncertainties in the current model. PNNL will develop and implement a calibration approach and methodology that can be used to evaluate alternative conceptual models of the Hanford aquifer system. The calibration process will involve a three-dimensional transient inverse calibration of each numerical model to historical observations of hydraulic and water quality impacts to the unconfined aquifer system from Hanford operations since the mid-1940s

Uncertainty Analysis Framework - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Model

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) embarked on a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of the predictions being made with a site-wide groundwater flow and transport model at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. In FY 2000, the focus of the initiative was on the characterization of major uncertainties in the current conceptual model that would affect model predictions. The long-term goals of the initiative are the development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology in future assessments and analyses using the site-wide model. This report focuses on the development and implementation of an uncertainty analysis framework

Capture and Sequestration of CO2 at the Boise White Paper Mill

This report documents the efforts taken to develop a preliminary design for the first commercial-scale CO2 capture and sequestration (CCS) project associated with biomass power integrated into a pulp and paper operation. The Boise Wallula paper mill is located near the township of Wallula in Southeastern Washington State. Infrastructure at the paper mill will be upgraded such that current steam needs and a significant portion of the current mill electric power are supplied from a 100% biomass power source. A new biomass power system will be constructed with an integrated amine-based CO2 capture plant to capture approximately 550,000 tons of CO2 per year for geologic sequestration. A customized version of Fluor Corporation’s Econamine Plus™ carbon capture technology will be designed to accommodate the specific chemical composition of exhaust gases from the biomass boiler. Due to the use of biomass for fuel, employing CCS technology represents a unique opportunity to generate a net negative carbon emissions footprint, which on an equivalent emissions reduction basis is 1.8X greater than from equivalent fossil fuel sources (SPATH and MANN, 2004). Furthermore, the proposed project will offset a significant amount of current natural gas use at the mill, equating to an additional 200,000 tons of avoided CO2 emissions. Hence, the total net emissions avoided through this project equates to 1,100,000 tons of CO2 per year. Successful execution of this project will provide a clear path forward for similar kinds of emissions reduction that can be replicated at other energy-intensive industrial facilities where the geology is suitable for sequestration. This project also represents a first opportunity for commercial development of geologic storage of CO2 in deep flood basalt formations. The Boise paper mill site is host to a Phase II pilot study being carried out under DOE’s Regional Carbon Partnership Program. Lessons learned from this pilot study and other separately funded projects studying CO2 sequestration in basalts will be heavily leveraged in developing a suitable site characterization program and system design for permanent sequestration of captured CO2. The areal extent, very large thickness, high permeability in portions of the flows, and presence of multiple very low permeability flow interior seals combine to produce a robust sequestration target. Moreover, basalt formations are quite reactive with water-rich supercritical CO2 and formation water that contains dissolved CO2 to generate carbonate minerals, providing for long-term assurance of permanent sequestration. Sub-basalt sediments also exist at the site providing alternative or supplemental storage capacity