Time-dependent response of a zonally averaged ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model to Milankovitch forcing

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer-Verlag for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climate Dynamics 6 (2010): 763-779, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0790-6.An ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model is developed to explore the time-dependent response of climate to Milankovitch forcing for the time interval 5-3 Myr BP. The ocean component is a zonally averaged model of the circulation in five basins (Arctic, Atlantic, Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans). The atmospheric component is a one-dimensional (latitudinal) energy balance model, and the sea-ice component is a thermodynamic model. Two numerical experiments are conducted. The first experiment does not include sea ice and the Arctic Ocean; the second experiment does. Results from the two experiments are used to investigate (i) the response of annual mean surface air and ocean temperatures to Milankovitch forcing, and (ii) the role of sea ice in this response. In both experiments, the response of air temperature is dominated by obliquity cycles at most latitudes. On the other hand, the response of ocean temperature varies with latitude and depth. Deep water formed between 45°N-65°N in the Atlantic Ocean mainly responds to precession. In contrast, deep water formed south of 60°S responds to obliquity when sea ice is not included. Sea ice acts as a time-integrator of summer insolation changes such that annual mean sea-ice conditions mainly respond to obliquity. Thus, in the presence of sea ice, air temperature changes over the sea ice are amplified, and temperature changes in deep water of southern origin are suppressed since water below sea ice is kept near the freezing point.This work was supported by an NSERC Discovery Grant awarded to L.A.M. We also thank GEC3 for a Network Grant

Cluster randomised trials in the medical literature: two bibliometric surveys

Background: Several reviews of published cluster randomised trials have reported that about half did not take clustering into account in the analysis, which was thus incorrect and potentially misleading. In this paper I ask whether cluster randomised trials are increasing in both number and quality of reporting. Methods: Computer search for papers on cluster randomised trials since 1980, hand search of trial reports published in selected volumes of the British Medical Journal over 20 years. Results: There has been a large increase in the numbers of methodological papers and of trial reports using the term 'cluster random' in recent years, with about equal numbers of each type of paper. The British Medical Journal contained more such reports than any other journal. In this journal there was a corresponding increase over time in the number of trials where subjects were randomised in clusters. In 2003 all reports showed awareness of the need to allow for clustering in the analysis. In 1993 and before clustering was ignored in most such trials. Conclusion: Cluster trials are becoming more frequent and reporting is of higher quality. Perhaps statistician pressure works

Complement C3 variant and the risk of age-related macular degeneration

Background: Age-related macular degeneration is the most common cause of blindness in Western populations. Susceptibility is influenced by age and by genetic and environmental factors. Complement activation is implicated in the pathogenesis.Methods: We tested for an association between age-related macular degeneration and 13 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) spanning the complement genes C3 and C5 in case subjects and control subjects from the southeastern region of England. All subjects were examined by an ophthalmologist and had independent grading of fundus photographs to confirm their disease status. To test for replication of the most significant findings, we genotyped a set of Scottish cases and controls.Results: The common functional polymorphism rs2230199 (Arg80Gly) in the C3 gene, corresponding to the electrophoretic variants C3S (slow) and C3F (fast), was strongly associated with age-related macular degeneration in both the English group (603 cases and 350 controls, P=5.9 x 10(sup -5)) and the Scottish group (244 cases and 351 controls, P=5.0 x 10(sup -5)). The odds ratio for age-related macular degeneration in C3 S/F heterozygotes as compared with S/S homozygotes was 1.7 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3 to 2.1); for F/F homozygotes, the odds ratio was 2.6 (95% CI, 1.6 to 4.1). The estimated population attributable risk for C3F was 22%.Conclusions: Complement C3 is important in the pathogenesis of age-related macular degeneration. This finding further underscores the influence of the complement pathway in the pathogenesis of this disease

Treatment of peritoneal carcinomatosis with photodynamic therapy: Systematic review of current evidence

Background: Peritoneal carcinomatosis results when tumour cells implant and grow within the peritoneal cavity. Treatment and prognosis vary based on the primary cancer. Although therapy with intention-to-cure is offered to selective patients using cytoreductive surgery with chemotherapy, the prognosis remains poor for most of the patients. Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a cancer-therapeutic modality where a photosensitiser is administered to patients and exerts a cytotoxic effect on cancer cells when excited by light of a specific wavelength. It has potential application in the treatment of peritoneal carcinomatosis. Methods: We systematically reviewed the evidence of using PDT to treat peritoneal carcinomatosis in both animals and humans (Medline/EMBASE searched in June 2017). Results: Three human and 25 animal studies were included. Phase I and II human trials using first-generation photosensitisers showed that applying PDT after surgical debulking in patients with peritoneal carcinomatosis is feasible with some clinical benefits. The low tumour-selectivity of the photosensitisers led to significant toxicities mainly capillary leak syndrome and bowel perforation. In animal studies, PDT improved survival by 15–300%, compared to control groups. PDT led to higher tumour necrosis values (categorical values 0–4 [4 = highest]: PDT 3.4 ± 1.0 vs. control 0.4 ± 0.6, p < 0.05) and reduced tumour size (residual tumour size is 10% of untreated controls, p < 0.001). Conclusion: PDT has potential in treating peritoneal carcinomatosis, but is limited by its narrow therapeutic window and possible serious side effects. Recent improvement in tumour-selectivity and light delivery systems is promising, but further development is needed before PDT can be routinely applied for peritoneal carcinomatosis

Dimension-specific attention directs learning and listening on auditory training tasks

The relative contributions of bottom-up versus top-down sensory inputs to auditory learning are not well established. In our experiment, listeners were instructed to perform either a frequency discrimination (FD) task ("FD-train group") or an intensity discrimination (ID) task ("ID-train group") during training on a set of physically identical tones that were impossible to discriminate consistently above chance, allowing us to vary top-down attention whilst keeping bottom-up inputs fixed. A third, control group did not receive any training. Only the FD-train group improved on a FD probe following training, whereas all groups improved on ID following training. However, only the ID-train group also showed changes in performance accuracy as a function of interval with training on the ID task. These findings suggest that top-down, dimension-specific attention can direct auditory learning, even when this learning is not reflected in conventional performance measures of threshold change

Do we want more cancer patients on clinical trials If so, what are the barriers to greater accrual

It is often stated that only a small proportion of adult cancer patients participate in clinical trials. This is said to be a bad thing, with calls for more trials to include more patients. Here I argue that whether or not greater accrual to clinical trials would be a good thing depends on the trials we conduct. The vast majority of clinical trials in cancer are currently early phase trials, and most do not lead to further studies even if they have encouraging results. The key metric is thus not the number of patients on clinical trials, but the number on the sort of large, randomized, Phase III trials that can be used as a basis for clinical decisions. I also address two important barriers to greater clinical trial participation. The first barrier is financial: clinical research has long been the poor cousin of basic research, with perhaps no more than a nickel in the cancer research dollar going to clinical research. The second barrier is regulatory: clinical research has become so overburdened by regulation that it takes years to initiate a trial, and dedicated staff just to deal with the paperwork once the trial starts. This not only adds significantly to the costs of clinical research, but scares many young investigators away. It has been estimated that nearly half of all US-sponsored trials are being conducted abroad, and it is plausible that excessive regulation is at least partly responsible. That statistic should serve as a wake-up call to the US clinical research community to implement the recommendations of the now decade-old report of National Cancer Institute Clinical Trials Program Review Group, which largely center around simplifying trials and streamlining trial procedures

Detection of emphysema progression in alpha 1-antitrypsin deficiency using CT densitometry; Methodological advances

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Computer tomography (CT) densitometry is a potential tool for detecting the progression of emphysema but the optimum methodology is uncertain. The level of inspiration affects reproducibility but the ability to adjust for this variable is facilitated by whole lung scanning methods. However, emphysema is frequently localised to sub-regions of the lung and targeted densitometric sampling may be more informative than whole lung assessment.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Emphysema progression over a 2-year interval was assessed in 71 patients (alpha 1-antitrypsin deficiency with PiZ phenotype) with CT densitometry, using the 15^thpercentile point (Perc15) and voxel index (VI) -950 Hounsfield Units (HU) and -910 HU (VI -950 and -910) on whole lung, limited single slices, and apical, central and basal thirds. The relationship between whole lung densitometric progression (ΔCT) and change in CT-derived lung volume (ΔCT_Vol) was characterised, and adjustment for lung volume using statistical modelling was evaluated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>CT densitometric progression was statistically significant for all methods. ΔCT correlated with ΔCT_Voland linear regression indicated that nearly one half of lung density loss was secondary to apparent hyperinflation. The most accurate measure was obtained using a random coefficient model to adjust for lung volume and the greatest progression was detected by targeted sampling of the middle third of the lung.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Progressive hyperinflation may contribute significantly to loss of lung density, but volume effects and absolute tissue loss can be identified by statistical modelling. Targeted sampling of the middle lung region using Perc15 appears to be the most robust measure of emphysema progression.</p

A systematic review of biomarkers for disease progression in Parkinson's disease

Peer reviewedPublisher PD