Prophylactic Medication for the Prevention of Endoscopic Recurrence in Crohn's Disease: a Prospective Study Based on Clinical Risk Stratification.

BACKGROUND: To prevent recurrence after ileocolonic resection [ICR] in Crohn's disease [CD], postoperative prophylaxis based on risk stratification is recommended in international guidelines. This study aimed to evaluate postoperative CD recurrence after implementation of a clinical management algorithm and to determine the predictive value of clinical and histological risk factors [RFs]. METHODS: In this multicentre, prospective cohort study, CD patients [≥16 years] scheduled for ICR were included. The algorithm advised no postoperative medication for low-risk patients, and treatment with prophylaxis [immunosuppressant/biological] for high-risk patients [≥1 RF: active smoking, penetrating disease, prior ICR]. Clinical and histological RFs [active inflammation, granulomas, plexitis in resection margins] for endoscopic recurrence [Rutgeerts' score ≥i2b at 6 months] were assessed using logistic regression and ROC curves based on predicted probabilities. RESULTS: In total, 213 CD patients after ICR were included [age 34.5 years; 65% women] (93 [44%] low-risk; 120 [56%] high-risk: 45 [38%] smoking; 51 [43%] penetrating disease; 51 [43%] prior ICR). Adherence to the algorithm was 82% in low-risk [no prophylaxis] and 51% in high-risk patients [prophylaxis]. Endoscopic recurrence was higher in patients treated without prophylaxis than with prophylaxis in both low [45% vs 16%, p = 0.012] and high-risk patients [49% vs 26%, p = 0.019]. Clinical risk stratification including the prescription of prophylaxis corresponded to an area under the curve [AUC] of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.61-0.79). Clinical RFs combined with histological RFs increased the AUC to 0.73 [95% CI 0.64-0.81]. CONCLUSION: Adherence to this management algorithm is 65%. Prophylactic medication after ICR prevents endoscopic recurrence in low- and high-risk patients. Clinical risk stratification has an acceptable predictive value, but further refinement is needed

Prediction of Relapse After Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor Cessation in Crohn's Disease: Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis of 1317 Patients From 14 Studies.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Tools for stratification of relapse risk of Crohn's disease (CD) after anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy cessation are needed. We aimed to validate a previously developed prediction model from the diSconTinuation in CrOhn's disease patients in stable Remission on combined therapy with Immunosuppressants (STORI) trial, and to develop an updated model. METHODS: Cohort studies were selected that reported on anti-TNF cessation in 30 or more CD patients in remission. Individual participant data were requested for luminal CD patients and anti-TNF treatment duration of 6 months or longer. The discriminative ability (concordance-statistic [C-statistic]) and calibration (agreement between observed and predicted risks) were explored for the STORI model. Next, an updated prognostic model was constructed, with performance assessment by cross-validation. RESULTS: This individual participant data meta-analysis included 1317 patients from 14 studies in 11 countries. Relapses after anti-TNF cessation occurred in 632 of 1317 patients after a median of 13 months. The pooled 1-year relapse rate was 38%. The STORI prediction model showed poor discriminative ability (C-statistic, 0.51). The updated model reached a moderate discriminative ability (C-statistic, 0.59), and included clinical symptoms at cessation (hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4), younger age at diagnosis (HR, 1.5 for A1 (age at diagnosis ≤16 years) vs A2 (age at diagnosis 17 - 40 years); 95% CI, 1.11-1.89), no concomitant immunosuppressants (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.18-172), smoking (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.15-1.67), second line anti-TNF (HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.01-1.69), upper gastrointestinal tract involvement (HR, 1.3 for L4 vs non-L4; 95% CI, 0.96-1.79), adalimumab (HR, 1.22 vs infliximab; 95% CI, 0.99-1.50), age at cessation (HR, 1.2 per 10 years younger; 95% CI, 1-1.33), C-reactive protein (HR, 1.04 per doubling; 95% CI, 1.00-1.08), and longer disease duration (HR, 1.07 per 5 years; 95% CI, 0.98-1.17). In subanalysis, the discriminative ability of the model improved by adding fecal calprotectin (C-statistic, 0.63). CONCLUSIONS: This updated prediction model showed a reasonable discriminative ability, exceeding the performance of a previously published model. It might be useful to guide clinical decisions on anti-TNF therapy cessation in CD patients after further validation