Women on the frontline: Rebel group ideology and women’s participation in violent rebellion

Despite the frequent participation of women in armed groups, few studies have sought to explain the variation in their roles across different rebellions. Herein, we investigate this variation. We argue that the political ideology a group adopts plays a central role in determining the extent of women’s participation, particularly their deployment in combat roles. Specifically, we link variations in women’s roles in armed groups to differences in beliefs about gender hierarchies and gender-based divisions of labor inherent in the specific ideologies the groups adopt. We evaluate hypotheses drawn from these arguments using a novel cross-sectional dataset on female combatants in a global sample of rebel organizations active between 1979 and 2009. We find that the presence of a Marxist-oriented ‘leftist’ ideology increases the prevalence of female fighters while Islamist ideologies exert the opposite effect. However, we find little evidence that nationalism exerts an independent influence on women’s combat roles. We also note a general inverse relationship between group religiosity and the prevalence of female fighters. Our analysis demonstrates that political ideology plays a central role in determining whether and to what extent resistance movements incorporate female fighters into their armed wings

Caught in the Vice: Economic Sanctions and State Repression in Developing Nations

Since the Second World War economic sanctions have become a favorite tool of foreign policy. However, the popularity of sanctions has been criticized both because of their mixed success and the collateral damage they inflict on civilian populations. This paper examines the impact of United States and United Nations Security Council-imposed sanctions on human rights conditions in developing nations. I show that declining economic conditions resulting from sanctions contribute to increases in state-sponsored repression of physical integrity rights. I employ Maximum Likelihood Estimation techniques to test this relationship in a sample of 126 developing countries between 1976 and 2001. The results reveal that state-sponsored violations of physical integrity rights in the increase following the application of all US sanctions and comprehensive UN sanctions. This study further finds that the severity of the increase in physical repression is dependent on the type of sanctions imposed

Female fighters and the fates of rebellions: How mobilizing women influences conflict duration

We investigate the potential relationship between female combatants and conflict duration. We contend that recruiting female combatants extends war duration via its influence on state–rebel bargaining. The recruitment and deployment of female combatants contribute to divergent perspectives between the rebels and the incumbent regarding the rebel group’s capabilities and the depth of its resolve, which impedes successful bargaining and extends the duration of the conflict. Results from duration analyses using data on the estimated prevalence of female combatants in rebel groups active between 1964 and 2011 support our central hypothesis and suggest that the use of female fighters is associated with longer conflicts

Governing Well after War: How Improving Female Representation Prolongs Post-conflict Peace

Previous studies suggest that women’s access to political power often increases following the termination of civil conflicts, particularly those ending in negotiated settlement. However, the effect of these changes has received limited attention. We argue that the proportion of female representatives in a national legislature prolongs peace following a negotiated settlement. Moreover, we highlight two mechanisms through which greater female representation reduces the risk of conflict recurrence: (1) by prioritizing social welfare spending over military spending and (2) by improving public perceptions of good governance and the credibility of political elites. We further argue that legislative independence and authority conditions this relationship, implying that greater female representation is more likely to promote peace in states with nominally democratic political institutions. Our empirical analyses of peace duration following negotiated settlements between 1946 and 2011 provide robust support for our general argument and the underlying mechanisms we believe drive this relationship

Disease and Dissent: Epidemics as a Catalyst for Social Unrest

We identify a set of potential theoretical mechanisms that link the outbreak and spread of communicable diseases to temporal and spatial patterns of social unrest. Despite the proliferation of research since 2020 analyzing the social impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, we examine the broader relationship between less severe epidemic outbreaks and their social consequences. Epidemics, as well as the policies that governments implement to tackle them, often generate acute grievances among the public and create new opportunities for collective dissent, the combination of which promotes unrest. Nonetheless, perceived opportunities for unrest are influenced by the scale and scope of the disease outbreak, and particularly lethal disease outbreaks may therefore offset the incentives for collective mobilization. We examine these relationships using sub-national data on communicable disease outbreaks and geo-located social unrest events data in 60 African and Latin American countries from 1990 to 2017 and find support for our argument. However, we observe a curvilinear relationships between the severity of the epidemic and the incidence of unrest

U–Pb Zircon Ages, Mapping, and Biostratigraphy of the Payette Formation and Idaho Group North of the Western Snake River Plain, Idaho: Implications for Hydrocarbon System Correlation

Sedimentary deposits north of the western Snake River Plain host Idaho’s first and only producing oil and gas field. They consist of the lower to middle Miocene Payette Formation, the middle to upper Miocene Poison Creek and Chalk Hills Formations, and the Pliocene to lower Pleistocene Glenns Ferry Formation. Using new geochronology, palynomorph biostratigraphy, and geologic mapping, we connect updip surface features to subsurface petroleum play elements. The Payette Formation is a likely main source of the hydrocarbons, and acts as one of the reservoirs in the unnamed basin. Here, we redefine the Payette Formation as 0 to ~3,500 ft (0 to ~1,000 m) of mudstone, with lesser amounts of sandstone overlying and interbedded with the Columbia River Basalt Group and Weiser volcanic field. Index palynomorphs, including Liquidambar and Pterocarya, present in Idaho during and immediately after the middle Miocene climatic optimum, and new U–Pb ages of 16.39 and 15.88 Ma, help establish the thickness and extent of the formation. For the first time, these biostratigraphic markers have been defined for the oil and gas wells. The Poison Creek Formation is sandstone interbedded with mudstone that is ~800–1,800 ft (250–550 m) thick. The Chalk Hills Formation is a tuffaceous siltstone, claystone, and sandstone that is as much as ~4,200 ft (1,280 m) thick. New U–Pb ages are 10.1, 9.04, and 9.00 for the Poison Creek Formation, along with maximum depositional ages of 10.7 to 9.9 Ma for four samples from the Poison Creek Formation. A single U–Pb age of 7.78 Ma was determined from pumice low in the Chalk Hills Formation. Like the Payette Formation, the Poison Creek Formation can be a reservoir, whereas the Chalk Hills Formation acts as a sealing mudstone facies. The overlying sandstone, siltstone, and conglomerate of the Glenns Ferry Formation act as the overburden to the petroleum system in the subsurface, and were important for burial and hydrocarbon maturation. The Glenns Ferry Formation is up to 500 ft (150 m) thick in the study area, as much has been eroded. Whereas the Payette and Poison Creek Formations were deposited during the mid-Miocene climatic optimum amongst and above volcanic flows, the Chalk Hills and Glenns Ferry Formations were deposited within ancient Lake Idaho during an overall increase in aridity and cooling after the mid-Miocene climatic optimum

Infrared heater system for warming tropical forest understory plants and soils

The response of tropical forests to global warming is one of the largest uncertainties in predicting the future carbon balance of Earth. To determine the likely effects of elevated temperatures on tropical forest understory plants and soils, as well as other ecosystems, an infrared (IR) heater system was developed to provide in situ warming for the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Three replicate heated 4‐m‐diameter plots were warmed to maintain a 4°C increase in understory vegetation compared to three unheated control plots, as sensed by IR thermometers. The equipment was larger than any used previously and was subjected to challenges different from those of many temperate ecosystem warming systems, including frequent power surges and outages, high humidity, heavy rains, hurricanes, saturated clayey soils, and steep slopes. The system was able to maintain the target 4.0°C increase in hourly average vegetation temperatures to within ± 0.1°C. The vegetation was heterogeneous and on a 21° slope, which decreased uniformity of the warming treatment on the plots; yet, the green leaves were fairly uniformly warmed, and there was little difference among 0–10 cm depth soil temperatures at the plot centers, edges, and midway between. Soil temperatures at the 40–50 cm depth increased about 3°C compared to the controls after a month of warming. As expected, the soil in the heated plots dried faster than that of the control plots, but the average soil moisture remained adequate for the plants. The TRACE heating system produced an adequately uniform warming precisely controlled down to at least 50‐cm soil depth, thereby creating a treatment that allows for assessing mechanistic responses of tropical plants and soil to warming, with applicability to other ecosystems. No physical obstacles to scaling the approach to taller vegetation (i.e., trees) and larger plots were observed

Armed Intervention and Civilian Victimization in Intrastate Conflicts

Abstract Research has begun to examine the relationship between changes in the conflict environment and levels of civilian victimization. We extend this work by examining the effect of external armed intervention on the decisions of governments and insurgent organizations to victimize civilians during civil wars. We theorize that changes in the balance of power in an intrastate conflict influence combatant strategies of violence. As a conflict actor weakens relative to its adversary, it employs increasingly violent tactics toward the civilian population as a means of reshaping the strategic landscape to its benefit. The reason for this is twofold. First, declining capabilities increase resource needs at the moment that extractive capacity is in decline. Second, declining capabilities inhibit control and policing, making less violent means of defection deterrence more difficult. As both resource extraction difficulties and internal threats increase, actors' incentives for violence against the population increase. To the extent that biased military interventions shift the balance of power between conflict actors, we argue that they alter actor incentives to victimize civilians. Specifically, intervention should reduce the level of violence employed by the supported faction and increase the level employed by the opposed faction. We test these arguments using data on civilian casualties and armed intervention in intrastate conflicts from 1989 to 2004. Our results support our expectations, suggesting that interventions shift the power balance and affect the levels of violence employed by combatants

Promoting COVID-19 vaccine confidence through public responses to misinformation: The joint influence of message source and message content

Objective During the pandemic healthcare professionals and political leaders routinely used traditional and new media outlets to publicly respond to COVID-19 myths and inaccuracies. We examine how variations in the sources and messaging strategies of these public statements affect respondents’ beliefs about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines. Methods We analyzed the results of an experiment embedded within a multi-wave survey deployed to US and UK respondents in January–February 2022 to examine these effects. We employ a test-retest between-subjects experimental protocol with a control group. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions reflecting discrete pairings of message source (political authorities vs. healthcare professionals) and messaging strategy (debunking misinformation vs. discrediting mis-informants) or a control condition. We use linear regression to compare the effects of exposure to treatment conditions on changes in respondent beliefs about the potential risks associated with COVID-19 vaccination. Results In the UK sample, we observe a statistically significant decrease in beliefs about the risks of COVID-19 vaccines among respondents exposed to debunking messages by healthcare professionals. We observe a similar relationship in the US sample, but the effect was weaker and not significant. Identical messages from political authorities had no effect on respondents’ beliefs about vaccine risks in either sample. Discrediting messages critical of mis-informants likewise had no influence on respondent beliefs, regardless of the actor to which they were attributed. Political ideology moderated the influence of debunking statements by healthcare professionals on respondent vaccine attitudes in the US sample, such that the treatment was more effective among liberals and moderates than among conservatives. Conclusions Brief exposure to public statements refuting anti-vaccine misinformation can help promote vaccine confidence among some populations. The results underscore the joint importance of message source and messaging strategy in determining the effectiveness of responses to misinformation