SETTING THE STAGE: AMERICAN AGRICULTURE TODAY AND WHAT WE CAN EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 10 YEARS

According to estimates made by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute in March of 1999, there are several macro factors that will significantly impact U.S. and global agriculture over the next decade. Factors leading to near-term price pressure are contrasted with likely implications for the longer term. In general, the longer run estimated consequences for global agriculture are more positive, but with the strong likelihood of low price pressure lingering over the next two to three years.agricultural policy, farm financial pressure, global agriculture, global economics, technology, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance,

STATE OF THE FARM ECONOMY: HOW GOOD OR HOW BAD?

Community/Rural/Urban Development,

SOCIAL INDICATORS, BASEBOOK, BASELINE AND INDICATOR MODEL

Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

MEASUREMENT AND EXPLANATION OF TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY IN MISSOURI HOG PRODUCTION

The U.S. live hog production has undergone a significant structural change characterized by a trend toward larger operations. Experts argue that there is a cost advantage for larger farms due to industrialization and increased management intensity. One important element in production, mainly for industries with rapid consolidation, is technical efficiency which affects the firm's competitive position directly. This study uses a stochastic production frontier function and farm-level data to measure and explain technical efficiency in Missouri hog production. The study estimates the mean technical efficiency for farms in the sample at about 82 percent, implying that a large proportion of production (18%) is lost due to farm-specific inefficiencies. Further, the results of the technical efficiency model proves the effects of technology and managerial skills on the level of productive efficiency. The study also finds economies of scale in hog production, thus explaining the consolidation in the industry.technical efficiency, economies of scale, production frontier, econometric methods, Industrial Organization, Livestock Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis,

WHEAT ACREAGE RESPONSE: A REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC INVESTIGATION

An econometric model of planted wheat acreage was estimated for five distinct production regions in the United States. This structural investigation represents an update of previous published work with specific attention given to policy program variables, weather, production cost, risk, market price influences, and program participation. Estimated results indicated regional divergence in responsiveness to government program variables. The most significant divergence occurred in the Cornbelt and Southeast - soft red winter wheat areas. Results indicate that management of the wheat program from the USDA level will contain countervailing production incentives unless these regional characteristics are taken into consideration in policy directives.Crop Production/Industries,

REGIONAL ACREAGE RESPONSE FOR U.S. CORN AND WHEAT: THE EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS

This paper presents findings from an analytical scheme that offers a promising alternative to traditional procedures of modeling acreage response. The scheme addresses the two-step decision process in which program and nonprogram planting decisions are modeled separately, conditional on the decision to participate. This provides a more realistic and intuitive portrayal of producersÂ’ decision making process. The model is applied at the regional level to assess the impact of farm programs on acreage response for corn in the Cornbelt and Lake States, and for wheat in the Northern Plains. The impacts of policy variable changes on participation and planted acreage are also analyzed.Agricultural and Food Policy,

DISCUSSION: CHANGES IN DOMESTIC DEMAND FOR FOOD: IMPACTS ON SOUTHERN AGRICULTURE

Demand and Price Analysis,

AN ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF THE U.S. TUNG OIL ECONOMY

Crop Production/Industries,

Evaluation of Alternative Base Periods for a National Rice Counter Cyclical Payment Program Including Added AMTA

The analysis was completed for one year, namely, 2001 using the FAPRI baseline rice price of $6.29/cwt. as the mean price for 2001. Risk for price and yields was incorporated into the analysis to appropriately replicate the historical variability for these variables. The counter cyclical payment (CCP) payments were calculated based on a national revenue. CCP payments were assumed to be triggered if total planted acre market receipts for rice (national planted acre yield times national season average price) was less than the average national planted acre receipts for a particular base period.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Review of the American Farm Bureau Counter Cyclical Payment Program

Agricultural and Food Policy,