Multi-center evaluation of baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR) ratio as an independent predictor of mortality and clinical risk stratifier in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosisResearch in context

Summary: Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive, fatal disorder with a variable disease trajectory. The aim of this study was to assess the potential of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) to predict outcomes in IPF. Methods: We adopted a two-stage discovery (n = 71) and validation (n = 134) design using patients from the UCL partners (UCLp) cohort. We then combined discovery and validation cohorts and included an additional 794 people with IPF, using real-life data from 5 other UK centers, to give a combined cohort of 999 patients. Data were collected from patients presenting over a 13-year period (2006–2019) with mean follow up of 3.7 years (censoring: 2018–2020). Findings: In the discovery analysis, we showed that high values of NLR (>/ = 2.9 vs < 2.9) were associated with increased risk of mortality in IPF (HR 2.04, 95% CI 1.09–3.81, n = 71, p = 0.025). This was confirmed in the validation (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.15–3.18, n = 134, p = 0.0114) and combined cohorts (HR 1.65, n = 999, 95% CI 1.39–1.95; p < 0·0001). NLR correlated with GAP stage and GAP index (p < 0.0001). Stratifying patients by NLR category (low/high) showed significant differences in survival for GAP stage 2 (p < 0.0001), however not for GAP stage 1 or 3. In a multivariate analysis, a high NLR was an independent predictor of mortality/progression after adjustment for individual GAP components and steroid/anti-fibrotic use (p < 0·03). Furthermore, incorporation of baseline NLR in a modified GAP-stage/index, GAP–index/stage-plus, refined prognostic ability as measured by concordance (C)-index. Interpretation: We have identified NLR as a widely available test that significantly correlates with lung function, can predict outcomes in IPF and refines cohort staging with GAP. NLR may allow timely prioritisation of at-risk patients, even in the absence of lung function. Funding: Breathing Matters, GSK, CF Trust, BLF-Asthma, MRC, NIHR Alpha-1 Foundation

Pneumomediastinum in COVID-19: a phenotype of severe COVID-19 pneumonitis? The results of the United Kingdom (POETIC) survey.

BACKGROUND: There is an emerging understanding that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with increased incidence of pneumomediastinum. We aimed to determine its incidence among patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the United Kingdom and describe factors associated with outcome. METHODS: A structured survey of pneumomediastinum and its incidence was conducted from September 2020 to February 2021. United Kingdom-wide participation was solicited via respiratory research networks. Identified patients had SARS-CoV-2 infection and radiologically proven pneumomediastinum. The primary outcomes were to determine incidence of pneumomediastinum in COVID-19 and to investigate risk factors associated with patient mortality. RESULTS: 377 cases of pneumomediastinum in COVID-19 were identified from 58 484 inpatients with COVID-19 at 53 hospitals during the study period, giving an incidence of 0.64%. Overall 120-day mortality in COVID-19 pneumomediastinum was 195/377 (51.7%). Pneumomediastinum in COVID-19 was associated with high rates of mechanical ventilation. 172/377 patients (45.6%) were mechanically ventilated at the point of diagnosis. Mechanical ventilation was the most important predictor of mortality in COVID-19 pneumomediastinum at the time of diagnosis and thereafter (p<0.001) along with increasing age (p<0.01) and diabetes mellitus (p=0.08). Switching patients from continuous positive airways pressure support to oxygen or high flow nasal oxygen after the diagnosis of pneumomediastinum was not associated with difference in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Pneumomediastinum appears to be a marker of severe COVID-19 pneumonitis. The majority of patients in whom pneumomediastinum was identified had not been mechanically ventilated at the point of diagnosis