Kinship and Family Support in Aging Societies

The main direction of research in IIASA's Population Program is population aging--a phenomenon which almost all countries in the world are experiencing today. Many social economic consequences of aging for society depend on the existing family structure and its future evolution. This paper describes the micro-simulation approach to the analysis of the kinship patterns. The only data which one needs are the data on fertility and mortality. Among other findings the paper shows that, as a result of fertility reduction, the links between generations became weaker

The Multistate Life Table with Duration-Dependence

The classical linear multi-state model is represented by an equation due to Kolmogorov, and applied to demography by Andrei Rogers. For many purposes it gives a realistic representation of phenomena, especially in problems in which the population is nearly homogeneous. In that respect it resembles the ordinary life table, of which it is a generalization. But like the life table it acts as though all of the individuals of a given category have the identical probability, so the statistically observed average represents each and every individual in its category. No demographer has ever regarded this as quite satisfactory; all recognize that individuals within a given cell are different from one another and the average of the cell does not apply to individuals. In a given group every couple may have one chance in three of divorcing; or else 1/9 of couples may divorce 3 times each. The overall probability that a couple will divorce is the same in the two cases, but the inference about what will happen to a random couple in the future is very different for the two. Yet to take into account this distinction involves difficulties, both of data and of the model for dealing with the data. James Vaupel and Anatoli Yashin of this program have made great progress in dealing with this question, and their work will be brought together in a volume now being prepared. The present paper sets out the theory of a procedure for taking account of a particular kind of heterogeneity -- that associated with the length of time in a state. Insofar as people are less likely to divorce the longer they have been married, and if divorce rates by duration are known, separate transition matrices can be set up for different durations. Douglas Wolf ingeniously shows how these separate transition matrices can be combined in a single matrix, and the analysis carried out simply and without further reference to duration. Thus what follows has a special significance for IIASA's population program, in that it combines lines of thought that go back to the multi-state model introduced by Rogers, and on which many IIASA papers were based in the period 1975-83, and the work on heterogeneity of Vaupel and Yashin, that has been central to IIASA's program in more recent years

A Random-Effects Logit Model for Panel Data

A random-effects panel logit model is proposed, in which the unmeasured attributes of an individual are represented by a discrete-valued random variable, the distribution of which is binomial with a known number of support points. The maximum-likelihood estimator of the unknown parameters of the model are derived, and the performance of the ML estimators is investigated in a series of Monte-Carlo experiments. Several further extensions of the framework are also suggested, including application to discrete event-history data

Using the INLOGIT Program to Interpret and Present the Results of Logistic Regressions

Nonlinear statistical models, of which logistic regression is one example, are often used in applied demographic analysis as well as in many other social sciences. Presentation of the results of such models can be enhanced by the calculation of predicted probabilities, or expected values of the phenomenon of interest, yet such calculations can often be rather time-consuming. This paper describes the use of a computer program, INLOGIT, which can help the applied researcher interpret and display the results of a logistic regression model

Living Arrangements and Family Networks of Older Women in Italy

Population aging in Italy is, as in many other industrialized countries, disproportionately a phenomenon associated with unmarried women, mainly widows. This paper examines the extent to which older unmarried women live alone, and the extent to which they receive help in everyday tasks from others outside their households, using data from a large Italian household sample survey conducted in 1983. Older women can either live alone or with others, and may or may not receive external help in either case; thus there are four distinct combinations of outcomes analyzed. In both descriptive, bivariate analysis and a multivariate model of the outcomes we find pronounced differences in behavior according to region of residence, educational level, age, degree of disability, work experience and pension receipt. The findings indicate the importance of family as a source of help and/or coresidence in situations of need

Varieties of Independent Living: Older Women in the Netherlands, 1982

Everywhere older people sooner or later come to suffer disabilities that make independent living difficult. In the IIASA countries, the majority of these old people are unmarried women. When and if they give up living alone because of their disabilities, it is found in other studies that they tend to live with or receive help from their children, if they have any, particularly daughters. The Netherlands shows a variant that appears to be the effect of extensive government construction of residences for the aged. These are specially designed for old people, including ramps instead of stairs, refrigerators and other equipment made easy to use. The availability of such residences permits a large portion of the elderly women who are disabled in one way or another to continue to live independently. Correspondingly, in the Netherlands, disability is a much weaker determinant for living with children than in some other countries. Of those elderly women who do live with a child, the majority now live with unmarried sons. Since it is hard to visualize sons cooking and making beds for their aged mothers, we may suppose the mothers are continuing their traditional role -- i.e., looking after their sons as well as themselves. This indicates that elderly women who might otherwise be in need of care are now able to continue to live independently thanks to special arrangements coming from the government, while elderly women able to give care continue to do so. This paper is one in a series of country case studies dealing with the effects of kin patterns and health on the household composition of older women

Kin Availability and the Living Arrangements of Older Unmarried Women: Canada, 1985

A model of the living arrangements of older unmarried women is presented, using data from a 1985 survey of the Canadian population. Living arrangements are represented by a multichotomous variable distinguishing those living alone, with children, with siblings, and with others. The hypothesized determinants of living arrangements include income, disability status, the array of available kin, and education. Results from a multinomial logit estimation of the model confirm the importance of income, disability and kin availability; particularly interesting is the significant effect of the number of grandchildren on the relative propensities to live alone, with children, and with siblings

Kinship Patterns and Household Composition of the Elderly: Hungarian Women, 1984

The population aging which is occurring in all IIASA countries raises the question of how the elderly will be housed and cared for in coming decades. This question has led to several studies of kinship patterns and the role of kin patterns in determining the living and health-care arrangements of the elderly. This paper is one in a series of country case studies dealing with the effect of kin patterns on the household composition of older women

Population Futures for Europe: An Analysis of Alternative Scenarios

Population projections using arbitrary assumptions are made by many agencies, national and international, and there is no obvious need for one more set. But what distinguishes the projections of this Working Paper is the extremely wide range of assumptions in regard to births, deaths and migration with which the authors experimented. Moreover, they give a more explicit rationale for their assumptions than is commonly presented. In effect the paper answers such questions as "What if we have a new baby boom, short but intense, comparable to that of the 1950s?" "What if mortality improves spectacularly, not only at the ages to which people have lived up to now, but far beyond those ages, say though discovery of a magic drug?" On the other hand they also ask "What happens if some vast epidemic, such as AIDS, ravages the population of Europe?" Its imaginative assumptions are unlikely to be fulfilled, but none of them is impossible. This new set of perspectives goes beyond the more conventional projections that are currently in print in displaying what may happen in the future