Summary [January 1978]

This brief provides a summary of the world, UK and Scottish economic outlook. The upward movement in the Scotland/UK unemployment relative over the past few quarters is unlikely to portend a return to the poor relative performance of the Scottish economy which occurred in the early nineteen sixties. Nevertheless the outlook for the Scottish economy in 1978 is not very encouraging

Review of the quarter's economic trends [January 1977]

There is now ample evidence that the pace of recovery in the major economies slackened during 1976. Published statistics, however, are as yet inadequate to document the full extent of the slowdown or to assert that it was a transient phenomenon. Available evidence would suggest that the growth in the major economies in 1977 may be somewhat slower than had earlier been forecast, and that in the short run further reductions in unemployment and inflation rates may be very difficult to achieve. Several threads may be drawn together in an attempt to justify this interpretation of likely future developments

Econometric forecasts for Scotland

In the first issue (July 1975) of the Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Commentary, the special article, by Professor J McGilvray, reviewed the problems associated with constructing regional econometric models to forecast key economic variables. Since that time, a number of forecasts for the Scottish economy have been made in the main text or in special articles of the Quarterly Commentary. Many of these have been underpinned by forecasting relationships which have been estimated for particular sectors of the economy. Up to now we have been unable to produce a set of relationships which could genuinely be described as a 'model' of the Scottish economy. The reason for this is simple, but illustrative of the type of problem discussed by Professor McGilvray. To understand it one must be acquainted with the fundamental differences which exist between national and regional economic models

Summary [January 1977]

The pace of recovery in the major economies of the world slackened in the course of 1976. The available evidence suggests that their growth in 1977 may be slower than had earlier been hoped for, and that further reductions in unemployment and in rates of inflation may be difficult to achieve in the short run

Review of the quarter's economic trends [January 1978]

In the year just ended, no growth in the aggregate level of output in the UK economy was discernible. Nevertheless, there were significant shifts in the composition of output. Exports increased by some 7% in volume terms, while the volume of manufacturing investment in the first three quarters of the year was about 6% higher than in the similar period of 1976. The performance of electronics, oil, and the chemicals sectors contrasted favourably with disappointing results in other parts of the economy. Further analysis of the UK economy and wider global economy is also provided

The Scottish economy [January 1978]

The outlook for the Scottish economy during 1978 depends primarily on the extent to which the Chancellor decides to reflate the UK economy in his April budget. Performance during 1977 was disappointing. A substantial rise in unemployment over the year was accompanied by no real rise in output (see Industrial Performance). Without some substantial stimulus to demand during 1978, the outlook is equally bleak. For the first time, this analysis groups economic indicators under broad headings to give a more complete view of recent and forthcoming changes in the major economic aggregates in Scotland. Three headings have been chosen for this issue, namely, production, investment and consumption

Review of the quarter's economic trends [April 1977]

[Abstract unavailable

The Scottish economy [April 1977]

The Scottish economy is between recession and recovery. If one were to judge the future only by prospective aggregate demand, then the outlook would be one of prolonged stagnation. Certainly, the slow growth which is foreseen for world trade is bound to keep order books low for many of Scotland's traditional export industries. Whatever the outcome of the negotiations concerning the next state of incomes policy, even if there is no agreed policy at all, it is difficult to foresee any rapid expansion of the UK market. While particular groups may benefit from the absence of an incomes policy, the government will feel bound to contain the overall growth of domestic demand. Further analysis of Scotland's current economic health is provided, as too is some consideration of Scotland's potential for entrepreneurial activity

Collecting and displaying the British past [special Issue of Museum History Journal]

This special issue examines the ways in which the British past was collected and displayed in Britain between 1850 and 1950, looking at objects ranging from Anglo-Saxon artefacts, to objects relating to medical history, to ethnographic and 'folk' objects. It shows that a range of issues impacted on this collection and display, from nationalist ideologies, to ways of thinking about other people geographically as well as temporally, as well as changing ideas about gender

Occupational shifts in the Scottish working population 1851-1971

The figures which accompany this article represent the occupational classification of the working population in Scotland as revealed by the decennial censuses 1851-1971. One of these censuses is missing, namely 1941, because of the Second World War. There are also some doubts about the exact classification into the different occupational categories. They may not always be consistent from one year to another, and it is obvious that the category "indefinite" is a large and fluctuating one. Nevertheless, the examination of the figures shows some fairly clear trends, which are distinctive enough to stand independently of the possibility of any errors of collection and classification