Few promising multivariable prognostic models exist for recovery of people with non-specific neck pain in musculoskeletal primary care: a systematic review

© 2017 Australian Physiotherapy Association Question Which multivariable prognostic model(s) for recovery in people with neck pain can be used in primary care? Design Systematic review of studies evaluating multivariable prognostic models. Participants People with non-specific neck pain presenting at primary care. Determinants Baseline characteristics of the participants. Outcome measures Recovery measured as pain reduction, reduced disability, or perceived recovery at short-term and long-term follow-up. Results Fifty-three publications were included, of which 46 were derivation studies, four were validation studies, and three concerned combined studies. The derivation studies presented 99 multivariate models, all of which were at high risk of bias. Three externally validated models generated usable models in low risk of bias studies. One predicted recovery in non-specific neck pain, while two concerned participants with whiplash-associated disorders (WAD). Discriminative ability of the non-specific neck pain model was area under the curve (AUC) 0.65 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.71). For the first WAD model, discriminative ability was AUC 0.85 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.91). For the second WAD model, specificity was 99% (95% CI 93 to 100) and sensitivity was 44% (95% CI 23 to 65) for prediction of non-recovery, and 86% (95% CI 73 to 94) and 55% (95% CI 41 to 69) for prediction of recovery, respectively. Initial Neck Disability Index scores and age were identified as consistent prognostic factors in these three models. Conclusion Three externally validated models were found to be usable and to have low risk of bias, of which two showed acceptable discriminative properties for predicting recovery in people with neck pain. These three models need further validation and evaluation of their clinical impact before their broad clinical use can be advocated. Registration PROSPERO CRD42016042204. [Wingbermühle RW, van Trijffel E, Nelissen PM, Koes B, Verhagen AP (2018) Few promising multivariable prognostic models exist for recovery of people with non-specific neck pain in musculoskeletal primary care: a systematic review. Journal of Physiotherapy 64: 16–23

Development and internal validation of prognostic models for recovery in patients with non-specific neck pain presenting in primary care

Objectives: Development and internal validation of prognostic models for post-treatment and 1-year recovery in patients with neck pain in primary care. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Primary care manual therapy practices. Participants: Patients with non-specific neck pain of any duration (n = 1193). Intervention: Usual care manual therapy. Outcome measures: Recovery defined in terms of pain intensity, disability, and global perceived improvement directly post-treatment and at 1-year follow-up. Results: All post-treatment models exhibited acceptable discriminative performance after derivation (AUC ≥ 0.7). The developed post-treatment disability model exhibited the best overall performance (R2 = 0.24; IQR, 0.22–0.26), discrimination (AUC = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.63–0.84), and calibration (slope 0.92; IQR, 0.91–0.93). After internal validation and penalization, this model retained acceptable discriminative performance (AUC = 0.74). The five other models, including those predicting 1-year recovery, did not reach acceptable discriminative performance after internal validation. Baseline pain duration, disability, and pain intensity were consistent predictors across models. Conclusion: A post-treatment prognostic model for disability was successfully developed and internally validated. This model has potential to inform primary care clinicians about a patient’s individual prognosis after treatment, but external validation is required before clinical use can be recommended

External validation of prognostic models for recovery in patients with neck pain

BackgroundNeck pain is one of the leading causes of disability in most countries and it is likely to increase further. Numerous prognostic models for people with neck pain have been developed, few have been validated. In a recent systematic review, external validation of three promising models was advised before they can be used in clinical practice.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to externally validate three promising models that predict neck pain recovery in primary care.MethodsThis validation cohort consisted of 1311 patients with neck pain of any duration who were prospectively recruited and treated by 345 manual therapists in the Netherlands. Outcome measures were disability (Neck Disability Index) and recovery (Global Perceived Effect Scale) post-treatment and at 1-year follow-up. The assessed models were an Australian Whiplash-Associated Disorders (WAD) model (Amodel), a multicenter WAD model (Mmodel), and a Dutch non-specific neck pain model (Dmodel). Models' discrimination and calibration were evaluated.ResultsThe Dmodel and Amodel discriminative performance (AUC ConclusionsExternal validation of promising prognostic models for neck pain recovery was not successful and their clinical use cannot be recommended. We advise clinicians to underpin their current clinical reasoning process with evidence-based individual prognostic factors for recovery. Further research on finding new prognostic factors and developing and validating models with up-to-date methodology is needed for recovery in patients with neck pain in primary care