Determining Predictor Importance In Multiple Regression Under Varied Correlational And Distributional Conditions

This study examines the performance of eight methods of predictor importance under varied correlational and distributional conditions. The proportion of times a method correctly identified the dominant predictor was recorded. Results indicated that the new methods of importance proposed by Budescu (1993) and Johnson (2000) outperformed commonly used importance methods

Recent climate-driven ecological change across a continent as perceived through local ecological knowledge

Documenting effects of climate change is an important step towards designing mitigation and adaptation responses. Impacts of climate change on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems have been well-documented in the Northern Hemisphere, but long-term data to detect change in the Southern Hemisphere are limited, and some types of change are generally difficult to measure. Here we present a novel approach using local ecological knowledge to facilitate a continent-scale view of climate change impacts on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems that people have perceived in Australia. We sought local knowledge using a national web-based survey, targeting respondents with close links to the environment (e.g. farmers, ecologists), and using a custom-built mapping tool to ask respondents to describe and attribute recent changes they had observed within an area they knew well. Results drawn from 326 respondents showed that people are already perceiving simple and complex climate change impacts on hundreds of species and ecosystems across Australia, significantly extending the detail previously reported for the continent. While most perceived trends and attributions remain unsubstantiated, \u3e35 reported anecdotes concurred with examples in the literature, and \u3e20 were reported more than once. More generally, anecdotes were compatible with expectations from global climate change impact frameworks, including examples across the spectrum from organisms (e.g. increased mortality in \u3e75 species), populations (e.g. changes in recruitment or abundance in \u3e100 species, phenological change in \u3e50 species), and species (e.g. \u3e80 species newly arriving or disappearing), to communities and landscapes (e.g. \u3e50 examples of altered ecological interactions). The overarching pattern indicated by the anecdotes suggests that people are more often noticing climate change losers (typically native species) than winners in their local areas, but with observations of potential ‘adaptation in action’ via compositional and phenological change and through arrivals and range shifts (particularly for native birds and exotic plants). A high proportion of climate change-related anecdotes also involved cumulative or interactive effects of land use. We conclude that targeted elicitation of local ecological knowledge about climate change impacts can provide a valuable complement to data-derived knowledge, substantially extending the volume of explicit examples and offering a foundation for further investigation

Tailored approach to sleep health education (TASHE): study protocol for a web-based randomized controlled trial

Background: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a sleep disorder that disproportionately affects African Americans (hereafter referred to as blacks). Moreover, blacks may underutilize sleep services including overnight polysomnography. Thus, OSA among blacks may go undiagnosed and untreated, which has significant health consequences, including hypertension, diabetes, cognitive impairment, and daytime sleepiness. Design and Methods: This two-arm randomized controlled trial will assign 200 participants to a culturally and linguistically tailored web-based sleep educational platform. The website will be developed to ensure that the content is user friendly and that it is readable and acceptable by the target community. Participants will receive login information to a password-protected website and will have access to the website for 2 months. Study assessments will be collected at baseline, 2 months (post-enrollment) and at 6 months (follow-up). We will use qualitative and quantitative methods to develop tailored materials and to ascertain whether tailored materials will increase OSA knowledge and OSA health literacy by comparing blacks exposed to tailored materials versus those exposed to standard sleep health literature. We hypothesize that exposure to tailored OSA information will improve OSA health literacy. Discussion: Few studies have investigated the racial/ethnic disparities in relation to OSA screening and treatment comparing blacks and whites. Moreover, we know of no interventions designed to increase OSA knowledge and health literacy among blacks. Use of the Internet to disseminate health information is growing in this population. Thus, the Internet may be an effective means to increase OSA health literacy, thereby potentially increasing utilization of sleep-related services in this population

Developing a Tailored Website for Promoting Awareness about Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) Among Blacks in Community-Based Settings

Blacks are at greater risk for lower sleep quality and higher risk for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) than other racial groups. In this study, we summarize the development of a tailored website including visuals, key messages, and video narratives, to promote awareness about sleep apnea among community-dwelling blacks. We utilized mixed methods, including in-depth interviews, usability-testing procedures, and brief surveys (n = 9, 55% female, 100% black, average age 38.5 years). Themes from the qualitative analysis illuminated varied knowledge regarding OSA symptoms and prevalent self-reported experience with sleep disturbance and OSA symptoms (e.g., snoring). On a scale from 1 (not at all) to 5 (very high), participants provided favorable ratings of website usefulness (mean = 4.9), user friendliness (mean = 4.9) and attractiveness (mean = 4.3). Our findings suggest although tailored health communication has potential for serving as a tool for advancing health equity, usability-testing of health materials is critical to ensure that culturally and linguistically tailored messages are acceptable and actionable in the intended population

Annual Cycle of Turbulent Dissipation Estimated from Seagliders

The rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy is estimated using Seaglider observations of vertical water velocity in the midlatitude North Atlantic. This estimate is based on the large‐eddy method, allowing the use of measurements of turbulent energy at large scales O(1–10 m) to diagnose the rate of energy dissipated through viscous processes at scales O(1 mm). The Seaglider data considered here were obtained in a region of high stratification (1 × 10−4<N < 1×10−2s−1), where previous implementations of this method fail. The large‐eddy method is generalized to high‐stratification by high‐pass filtering vertical velocity with a cutoff dependent on the local buoyancy frequency, producing a year‐long time series of dissipation rate spanning the uppermost 1,000 m with subdaily resolution. This is compared to the dissipation rate estimated from a moored 600 kHz acoustic Doppler current profiler. The variability of the Seaglider‐based dissipation correlates with one‐dimensional scalings of wind‐ and buoyancy‐driven mixed‐layer turbulence. Plain Language Summary Measuring ocean turbulence is crucial for understanding how heat and carbon dioxide are transferred from the atmosphere to the deep ocean. However, measurements of ocean turbulence are sparse. Here autonomous Seagliders are used to estimate turbulence in the surface kilometer of the North Atlantic Ocean. Using an estimate of the vertical water velocity from the flight of the Seaglider through the water, we estimate turbulence by assuming the energy of the largest turbulent fluctuations is representative of the energy dissipated at molecular scales. This approach has been used previously in an ocean region where the vertical gradient of density is small. Our results show that this previous approach fails when the vertical density gradient increases, as it does not account for other processes that are unrelated to turbulence. We introduce a generalized method that isolates only the turbulent processes by accounting for the strength of the vertical density gradient. We show that this new estimate agrees with other turbulence measurements. Our estimate also agrees well with a simple estimates of turbulence from atmospheric processes. This study therefore presents method that can be applied to existing and new Seaglider data to greatly increase our measurements of ocean turbulence

St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project: Seismic and Liquefaction Hazard Maps

We present probabilistic and deterministic seismic and liquefaction hazard maps for the densely populated St. Louis metropolitan area that account for the expected effects of surficial geology on earthquake ground shaking. Hazard calculations were based on a map grid of 0.005°, or about every 500 m, and are thus higher in resolution than any earlier studies. To estimate ground motions at the surface of the model (e.g., site amplification), we used a new detailed near-surface shear-wave velocity model in a 1D equivalent- linear response analysis. When compared with the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model, which uses a uniform firm-rock-site condition, the new probabilistic seismic-hazard estimates document much more variability. Hazard levels for upland sites (consisting of bedrock and weathered bedrock overlain by loess-covered till and drift deposits), show up to twice the ground-motion values for peak ground acceleration (PGA), and similar ground-motion values for 1.0 s spectral acceleration (SA). Probabilistic ground-motion levels for lowland alluvial floodplain sites (generally the 20-40-m-thick modern Mississippi and Missouri River floodplain deposits overlying bedrock) exhibit up to twice the ground-motion levels for PGA, and up to three times the ground-motion levels for 1.0 s SA. Liquefaction probability curves were developed from available standard penetration test data assuming typical lowland and upland water table levels. A simplified liquefaction hazard map was created from the 5%-in-50-year probabilistic ground-shaking model. The liquefaction hazard ranges from low (\u3c40% of area expected to liquefy) in the uplands to severe (\u3e60% of area expected to liquefy) in the lowlands. Because many transportation routes, power and gas transmission lines, and population centers exist in or on the highly susceptible lowland alluvium, these areas in the St. Louis region are at significant potential risk from seismically induced liquefaction and associated ground deformation

Calibration database for the Murchison Widefield Array All-Sky Virtual Observatory

We present a calibration component for the Murchison Widefield Array All-Sky Virtual Observatory (MWA ASVO) utilising a newly developed PostgreSQL database of calibration solutions. Since its inauguration in 2013, the MWA has recorded over thirty-four petabytes of data archived at the Pawsey Supercomputing Centre. According to the MWA Data Access policy, data become publicly available eighteen months after collection. Therefore, most of the archival data are now available to the public. Access to public data was provided in 2017 via the MWA ASVO interface, which allowed researchers worldwide to download MWA uncalibrated data in standard radio astronomy data formats (CASA measurement sets or UV FITS files). The addition of the MWA ASVO calibration feature opens a new, powerful avenue for researchers without a detailed knowledge of the MWA telescope and data processing to download calibrated visibility data and create images using standard radio-astronomy software packages. In order to populate the database with calibration solutions from the last six years we developed fully automated pipelines. A near-real-time pipeline has been used to process new calibration observations as soon as they are collected and upload calibration solutions to the database, which enables monitoring of the interferometric performance of the telescope. Based on this database we present an analysis of the stability of the MWA calibration solutions over long time intervals.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, Accepted for publication in PAS