System Safety Engineering for Social and Ethical ML Risks: A Case Study

Governments, industry, and academia have undertaken efforts to identify and mitigate harms in ML-driven systems, with a particular focus on social and ethical risks of ML components in complex sociotechnical systems. However, existing approaches are largely disjointed, ad-hoc and of unknown effectiveness. Systems safety engineering is a well established discipline with a track record of identifying and managing risks in many complex sociotechnical domains. We adopt the natural hypothesis that tools from this domain could serve to enhance risk analyses of ML in its context of use. To test this hypothesis, we apply a "best of breed" systems safety analysis, Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), to a specific high-consequence system with an important ML-driven component, namely the Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs (PDMPs) operated by many US States, several of which rely on an ML-derived risk score. We focus in particular on how this analysis can extend to identifying social and ethical risks and developing concrete design-level controls to mitigate them.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables. Accepted to 36th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, Workshop on ML Safety (NeurIPS 2022

Prostate cancer-specific PET radiotracers : a review on the clinical utility in recurrent disease

Prostate cancer-specific positron emission tomography (pcPET) has been shown to detect sites of disease recurrence at serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels that are lower than those levels detected by conventional imaging. Commonly used pcPET radiotracers in the setting of biochemical recurrence are reviewed including carbon 11/fludeoxyglucose 18 (F-18) choline, gallium 68/F-18 prostate-specificmembrane antigen (PSMA), and F-18 fluciclovine. Review of the literature generally favors PSMA-based agents for the detection of recurrence as a function of low PSA levels. Positive gallium 68/F-18PSMA positron emission tomography/computed tomography scans detected potential sites of recurrence in a median 51.5% of patients when PSA level is 2.0 ng/mL. Review of carbon 11/fludeoxyglucose 18 (F-18) choline and F-18 fluciclovine data commonly demonstrated lower detection rates for each respective PSA cohort, although with some important caveats, despite having similar operational characteristics to PSMA-based imaging. Sensitive pcPET imaging has provided new insight into the early patterns of disease spread, which has prompted judicious reconsideration of additional local therapy after either prostatectomy, definitive radiation therapy, or postprostatectomy radiation therapy. This review discusses the literature, clinical utility, availability, and fundamental understanding of pcPET imaging needed to improve clinical practice. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of American Society for Radiation Oncology

High Resolution Infrared Imaging and Spectroscopy of the Pistol Nebula: Evidence for Ejection

We present new NICMOS/HST infrared images and CGS4/UKIRT Br-alpha (4.05 um) spectroscopy of the Pistol Star and its associated nebula, finding strong evidence to support the hypothesis that the Pistol Nebula was ejected from the Pistol Star. The Pa-alpha NICMOS image shows that the nebula completely surrounds the Pistol Star, although the line intensity is much stronger on its northern and western edges. The Br-alpha spectra show the classical ring-like signature of quasi-spherical expansion, with weak blueshifted emission (V_max approx -60 km/s) and strong redshifted emission (V_max approx +10 km/s), where the velocities are with respect to the velocity of the Pistol Star; further, the redshifted emission appears to be "flattened" in the position-velocity diagram. These data suggest that the nebula was ejected from the star several thousand years ago, with a velocity between the current terminal velocity of the stellar wind (95 km/s) and the present expansion velocity of gas in the outer shell of the nebula (60 km/s). The Pa-alpha image reveals several emission-line stars in the region, including two newly-identified emission-line stars north of the Pistol Star with spectral types earlier than WC8 (T_eff > 50,000 K). The presence of these stars, the morphology of the Pa-alpha emission, and the velocity field in the gas suggest that the side of the nebula furthest from us is approaching, and being ionized by, the hot stars of the Quintuplet, and that the highest velocity redshifted gas has been decelerated by winds from the Quintuplet stars. We also discuss the possibility that the nebular gas might be magnetically confined by the ambient magnetic field delineated by the nearby nonthermal filaments.Comment: Figure 1 is included as a JPG file. Figure 1 and 2 also available at ftp://quintup.astro.ucla.edu/pistol2

Dynamics of a ferromagnetic domain wall and the Barkhausen effect

We derive an equation of motion for the the dynamics of a ferromagnetic domain wall driven by an external magnetic field through a disordered medium and we study the associated depinning transition. The long-range dipolar interactions set the upper critical dimension to be $d_c=3$, so we suggest that mean-field exponents describe the Barkhausen effect for three-dimensional soft ferromagnetic materials. We analyze the scaling of the Barkhausen jumps as a function of the field driving rate and the intensity of the demagnetizing field, and find results in quantitative agreement with experiments on crystalline and amorphous soft ferromagnetic alloys.Comment: 4 RevTex pages, 3 ps figures embedde

Viral MHCI inhibition evades tissue-resident memory T cell formation and responses

Tissue-resident memory CD

Fertilizer use efficiency and economic viability in maize production in the Savannah and transitional zones of Ghana

Increasing fertilizer use is highly justified for sustainable agricultural intensification if yield response, fertilizer use efficiency (FUE), and economic viability of fertilizer application are high. Despite the increasing fertilizer application rates in Ghana, yields only marginally increased. Also, the recent fertilizer price hikes post COVID-19 revived concern for economic analysis of fertilizers. This study analyzed the FUE and economic viability of fertilizer use in maize production in Guinea/Sudan Savannah and Transitional/Deciduous zones of Ghana. Survey data from 2,673 farmers in the 2019, 2020, and 2021 production seasons were used. The average agronomic efficiency (AE), partial factor productivity (PFP), and value-cost ratio (VCR) of fertilizer use were 2.2 kg of grains per kilogram of fertilizer, 18.3 kg grains per kilogram of fertilizer, and 1.8 Ghana cedis of marginal yield per Ghana cedi spent on fertilizer, respectively. Fertilizer use was economically viable for only 28.1% of farmers with a VCR of 2 or higher, while 52.5% reached the break-even point with a VCR of at least 1. Various fertilizer formulations, including NPK plus sulfur, and adoption of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) practices, particularly improved seeds, organic fertilizers, and minimum tillage, improved maize yield response to fertilizer and thus the FUE. These low efficiency and economic viability of fertilizer use are prevailing conditions in other sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries and these do not guarantee sustainable food security and improved livelihood of the farmers in the region. Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA), together with relevant stakeholders, should provide guidance on ISFM and intensify farmer education through farmer associations to increase the adoption of ISFM. The local government should work with other relevant stakeholders to improve the market conditions within the agriculture sector, for instance, by linking farmers to city markets for favorable output prices

Coronary CT Angiography and 5-Year Risk of Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Although coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) improves diagnostic certainty in the assessment of patients with stable chest pain, its effect on 5-year clinical outcomes is unknown. METHODS: In an open-label, multicenter, parallel-group trial, we randomly assigned 4146 patients with stable chest pain who had been referred to a cardiology clinic for evaluation to standard care plus CTA (2073 patients) or to standard care alone (2073 patients). Investigations, treatments, and clinical outcomes were assessed over 3 to 7 years of follow-up. The primary end point was death from coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction at 5 years. RESULTS: The median duration of follow-up was 4.8 years, which yielded 20,254 patient-years of follow-up. The 5-year rate of the primary end point was lower in the CTA group than in the standard-care group (2.3% [48 patients] vs. 3.9% [81 patients]; hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.41 to 0.84; P=0.004). Although the rates of invasive coronary angiography and coronary revascularization were higher in the CTA group than in the standard-care group in the first few months of follow-up, overall rates were similar at 5 years: invasive coronary angiography was performed in 491 patients in the CTA group and in 502 patients in the standard-care group (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.13), and coronary revascularization was performed in 279 patients in the CTA group and in 267 in the standard-care group (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.27). However, more preventive therapies were initiated in patients in the CTA group (odds ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.65), as were more antianginal therapies (odds ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.54). There were no significant between-group differences in the rates of cardiovascular or noncardiovascular deaths or deaths from any cause. CONCLUSIONS: In this trial, the use of CTA in addition to standard care in patients with stable chest pain resulted in a significantly lower rate of death from coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction at 5 years than standard care alone, without resulting in a significantly higher rate of coronary angiography or coronary revascularization. (Funded by the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office and others; SCOT-HEART ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01149590 .)