INFLATION COSTS, UNCERTAINTY COSTS AND EMERGING MARKETS

Given the costs to real output that inflation uncertainty has been shown to impose, two recent papers have investigated the interaction of inflation and uncertainty for a group of emerging market nations. Both papers find that an increase in inflation almost invariably increases uncertainty in developing countries. This finding accords with the Friedman hypothesis and with most results for industrialized countries. However, there is both theoretical and some tentative empirical evidence suggesting that, when inflation is high, and thus costly, an increase in inflation can spur greater investment in predicting the path of prices, and actually reduce rather than increase uncertainty. This possibility is particularly relevant for emerging markets, some of which have histories of high inflation. Using a somewhat different empirical methodology than previous authors, we find that inflation does indeed lower uncertainty at some horizons, and, as per theory, does so predominantly in those countries in our sample with the higher rates of inflation.Price Level, Inflation, Deflation, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

The Precision nEDM Measurement with UltraCold Neutrons at TRIUMF

The TRIUMF Ultra-Cold Advanced Neutron (TUCAN) collaboration aims at a precision neutron electric dipole moment (nEDM) measurement with an uncertainty of $10^{-27}\,e\cdot\mathrm{cm}$, which is an order-of-magnitude better than the current nEDM upper limit and enables us to test Supersymmetry. To achieve this precision, we are developing a new high-intensity ultracold neutron (UCN) source using super-thermal UCN production in superfluid helium (He-II) and a nEDM spectrometer. The current development status of them is reported in this article.Comment: Proceedings of the 24th International Spin Symposium (SPIN 2021), 18-22 October 2021, Matsue, Japa