160 research outputs found

    Full Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model

    Get PDF

    The Florence Statement on Triclosan and Triclocarban

    Get PDF
    The Florence Statement on Triclosan and Triclocarban documents a consensus of more than 200 scientists and medical professionals on the hazards of and lack of demonstrated benefit from common uses of triclosan and triclocarban. These chemicals may be used in thousands of personal care and consumer products as well as in building materials. Based on extensive peer-reviewed research, this statement concludes that triclosan and triclocarban are environmentally persistent endocrine disruptors that bioaccumulate in and are toxic to aquatic and other organisms. Evidence of other hazards to humans and ecosystems from triclosan and triclocarban is presented along with recommendations intended to prevent future harm from triclosan, triclocarban, and antimicrobial substances with similar properties and effects. Because antimicrobials can have unintended adverse health and environmental impacts, they should only be used when they provide an evidence-based health benefit. Greater transparency is needed in product formulations, and before an antimicrobial is incorporated into a product, the long-term health and ecological impacts should be evaluated

    An analysis of RSQE forecasts: 1971–1992

    Full text link
    The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy of ex ante econometric model forecasts of four key macroeconomic variables: real GNP growth, the rate of price inflation measured by the GNP deflator, the civilian unemployment rate, and the Treasury Bill rate. Annual forecasts produced by the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) based on the Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy are compared with quasi ex ante forecasts from a four-variable vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Statistical tests of the equality of forecast error variances as well as univariate and multivariate forecast encompassing-type tests are conducted. The forecast error variance comparisons indicate that for three of the four variables the RSQE forecasts are more accurate than the VAR forecasts and for one of the variables (real GNP growth) only slightly less accurate. The forecast encompassing-type tests indicate that the RSQE forecasts contain information not contained in the VAR forecasts and, conversely, that VAR forecasts contain information not included in the RSQE forecasts. The scope for improving RSQE forecasts by combining them with VAR forecasts is rather limited, however.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43925/1/11293_2006_Article_BF02299030.pd

    Perceptual and conceptual processing of visual objects across the adult lifespan

    Get PDF
    Abstract: Making sense of the external world is vital for multiple domains of cognition, and so it is crucial that object recognition is maintained across the lifespan. We investigated age differences in perceptual and conceptual processing of visual objects in a population-derived sample of 85 healthy adults (24–87 years old) by relating measures of object processing to cognition across the lifespan. Magnetoencephalography (MEG) was recorded during a picture naming task to provide a direct measure of neural activity, that is not confounded by age-related vascular changes. Multiple linear regression was used to estimate neural responsivity for each individual, namely the capacity to represent visual or semantic information relating to the pictures. We find that the capacity to represent semantic information is linked to higher naming accuracy, a measure of task-specific performance. In mature adults, the capacity to represent semantic information also correlated with higher levels of fluid intelligence, reflecting domain-general performance. In contrast, the latency of visual processing did not relate to measures of cognition. These results indicate that neural responsivity measures relate to naming accuracy and fluid intelligence. We propose that maintaining neural responsivity in older age confers benefits in task-related and domain-general cognitive processes, supporting the brain maintenance view of healthy cognitive ageing

    The Genealogy of the Labor Hoarding Concept

    Full text link
    The modern concept of labor hoarding emerged in early 1960s, and soon became a standard part of mainstream economists' explan ation of the working of labor markets. The concept represents the convergence of three importa nt elements: an empirical fi nding that labor productivity was procyclical; a framing of this fi nding as a "puzzle" or anomaly fo r the basic neoclassical theory of the firm, and a proposed resolu tion of the puzzle based on optimizing behavior of the firm in the presence of costs of hiring, firing, and training workers. Th is paper recounts the history of each of these elements, and how they were woven together into the labor hoarding concept. Each history involves people associated with various research traditions and motivated by an array of questions, many of which were unrelated to the qu estions that the modern labor hoarding concept was ultimately created to address

    Poorer White Matter Microstructure Predicts Slower and More Variable Reaction Time Performance: Evidence for a Neural Noise Hypothesis in a Large Lifespan Cohort

    Get PDF
    Most prior research has focused on characterizing averages in cognition, brain characteristics, or behavior, and attempting to predict differences in these averages among individuals. However, this overwhelming focus on mean levels may leave us with an incomplete picture of what drives individual differences in behavioral phenotypes by ignoring the variability of behavior around an individual's mean. In particular, enhanced white matter (WM) structural microstructure has been hypothesized to support consistent behavioral performance by decreasing Gaussian noise in signal transfer. Conversely, lower indices of WM microstructure are associated with greater within-subject variance in the ability to deploy performance-related resources, especially in clinical populations. We tested a mechanistic account of the “neural noise” hypothesis in a large adult lifespan cohort (Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience) with over 2500 adults (ages 18-102; 1508 female; 1173 male; 2681 behavioral sessions; 708 MRI scans) using WM fractional anisotropy to predict mean levels and variability in reaction time performance on a simple behavioral task using a dynamic structural equation model. By modeling robust and reliable individual differences in within-person variability, we found support for a neural noise hypothesis (Kail, 1997), with lower fractional anisotropy predicted individual differences in separable components of behavioral performance estimated using dynamic structural equation model, including slower mean responses and increased variability. These effects remained when including age, suggesting consistent effects of WM microstructure across the adult lifespan unique from concurrent effects of aging. Crucially, we show that variability can be reliably separated from mean performance using advanced modeling tools, enabling tests of distinct hypotheses for each component of performance

    Distinct components of cardiovascular health are linked with age-related differences in cognitive abilities

    Get PDF
    Cardiovascular ageing contributes to cognitive impairment. However, the unique and synergistic contributions of multiple cardiovascular factors to cognitive function remain unclear because they are often condensed into a single composite score or examined in isolation. We hypothesized that vascular risk factors, electrocardiographic features and blood pressure indices reveal multiple latent vascular factors, with independent contributions to cognition. In a population-based deep-phenotyping study (n = 708, age 18–88), path analysis revealed three latent vascular factors dissociating the autonomic nervous system response from two components of blood pressure. These three factors made unique and additive contributions to the variability in crystallized and fluid intelligence. The discrepancy in fluid relative to crystallized intelligence, indicative of cognitive decline, was associated with a latent vascular factor predominantly expressing pulse pressure. This suggests that higher pulse pressure is associated with cognitive decline from expected performance. The effect was stronger in older adults. Controlling pulse pressure may help to preserve cognition, particularly in older adults. Our findings highlight the need to better understand the multifactorial nature of vascular aging

    Ageing increases reliance on sensorimotor prediction through structural and functional differences in frontostriatal circuits

    Get PDF
    This is the author accepted manuscript. It is currently under an indefinite embargo pending publication by Nature Publishing Group.The control of voluntary movement changes markedly with age. A critical component of motor control is the integration of sensory information with predictions of the consequences of action, arising from internal models of movement. This leads to sensorimotor attenuation – a reduction in the perceived intensity of sensations from self-generated compared to external actions. Here we show that sensorimotor attenuation occurs in 98% of adults in a population-based cohort (n=325; 18-88 years; the Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience). Importantly, attenuation increases with age, in proportion to reduced sensory sensitivity. This effect is associated with differences in the structure and functional connectivity of the pre-supplementary motor area (pre-SMA), assessed with magnetic resonance imaging. The results suggest that ageing alters the balance between the sensorium and predictive models, mediated by the pre-SMA and its connectivity in frontostriatal circuits. This shift may contribute to the motor and cognitive changes observed with age.Cam-CAN research was supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/H008217/1). JBR and NW were supported by the James S. McDonnell Foundation 21st Century Science Initiative, Scholar Award in Understanding Human Cognition. JBR was also supported by Wellcome Trust [103838] and the Medical Research Council [MC-A060-5PQ30]. DMW was supported by the Wellcome Trust [097803], Human Frontier Science Program and the Royal Society Noreen Murray Professorship in Neurobiology. RNH was supported by the Medical Research Council [MC-A060-5PR10]. RAK was supported by a Sir Henry Wellcome Trust Postdoctoral Fellowship [107392]. LG was funded by a Rubicon grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)
    • …
    corecore