Forecasting the Labor Market Prospects of Low-Skilled Americans

This paper forecasts the post-recession labor market experiences of less-skilled men and women. It uses empirical relationships and the Bush Administration's 2004 and 2005 forecasts of the national unemployment rate to predict the employment-population ratios, employment rates, and labor force participation rates of Americans with the least skills. It also describes the econometric models estimated in the paper; presents estimates of the relationship between aggregate demand and the participation, employment, and unemployment of young non-enrolled Americans and 10-year forecasts of their labor market outcomes; and discusses findings and their implications

Black Workers Need More than an Economic Boom

This paper looks at the reasons the absolute and relative gains that African Americans made during the 1990s economic boom were both less than hoped for and fragile in the period of economic decline that followed. The paper also looks at the public policies that would be necessary to sustain the gains that African Americans are likely to make during the next economic expansion

The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Distribution and Type of Unemployment

This working paper by William M. Rodgers III employs two widely used approaches to estimate the effects of monetary policy on seven measures of unemployment. Evidence from recursive vector autoregressions and autoregressive distributed lag models that use information on the Federal Reserve's contractionary initiatives indicate that the weeks of unemployment distribution (e.g., less than five weeks) is significantly altered. The number of unemployed increases at all segments of the distribution. However, as a share of total unemployment, the increase is greatest among those with 15 weeks of unemployment or more. The number of job losers on both temporary and permanent layoff rise, with over two-thirds of the increase among permanent job losers. The number of reentrants into the labor force, new entrants, and part-time workers that become unemployed also rises. The share of the unemployed that are job losers rises, while the shares of reentrant, new entrant, and part-time workers that become unemployed falls

New Jersey Public-Private Sector Wage Differentials: 1970 to 2004

This paper, by Heldrich Center Chief Economist William M. Rodgers III, uses Decennial Census and Current Population Survey data to provide a rigorous comparison of New Jersey's public and private sector wages

Male White-Black Wage Gaps, 1979-1994: A Distributional Analysis

This paper examines whether the general growth in wage inequality that occurred during the 1980s explains the growth in the white-black wage gap. The paper develops a skill-specific decomposition that measures inequality growth's contribution to the wage gap's growth among white and black men with similar skill levels. The paper shows that if general wage inequality growth is an important contributor to the overall wage gap's growth during the 1980s, its greatest impact is among middle and upper skilled workers. For racial wage gaps among young high school and college graduates, the contribution of general wage inequality growth is greatest among those whites and blacks with the least and greatest skills

The Pitfalls of Using a Child Support Schedule Based on Outdated Data

A strong rationale for updating child support guidelines arises from changes over time in the measurement of expenditures on children, as well as changes in the empirical relationship between expenditures on children and the income of parents. Such changes affect the accuracy of the numerics upon which states' child support guidelines are based. This study evaluates an alternative child support guideline that was proposed for Virginia and draws lessons for other states that similarly base their guidelines on older survey data. Regression results show that over time, the child expenditure and household income relationship has changed considerably. Furthermore, the largest increases in expenditures attributable to children have occurred for lower- and middle-income households

Post 9-11 U.S. Muslim Labor Market Outcomes

Using a difference-in-differences framework and micro data from the Current Population Survey-Merged Outgoing Rotation Group Files (1999 to 2004), this paper estimates the impact that the 9-11 terrorists attacks had on the U.S. labor market outcomes of individuals with nativity profiles similar to the terrorists. We find that shortly after the attacks, the employmentpopulation ratios and hours worked of very young (ages 16 to 25) Muslim men fell. By 2004, most losses had begun to dissipate. The employment-population ratios and hours worked of older Muslim men experienced little deterioration.

The Impact of 9/11 and the London Bombings on the Employment and Earnings of U.K. Muslims

Using a difference-in-differences framework, this paper estimates the impact that Britain's July 2005 bombings had on the labor market outcomes of UK residents who are either Muslim by religious affiliation or whose nativity profiles are similar to the terrorists. We find a 10 percentage point decrease in the employment of very young Muslim men relative to non-Muslim immigrants after the London bombings. The drop in employment is accompanied by consistent declines in real earnings and hours worked. A weak association between the 9-11 terrorist attacks and a drop in the employment of very young male immigrants from Muslim-majority countries is also found. The terrorist events had little impact on the employment of older men.Muslim, ethnic minority, minorities, 9/11, employment, London bombings

The 1990s Economic Boom: Another Period of Missed Opportunities? - Slides

These Powerpoint slides are meant to be viewed along with the Harvard Jornal of African American Public Policy article, "The 1990's Economic Boom: Another Period of Missed Opportunities?