Data-Driven Model Reduction for the Bayesian Solution of Inverse Problems

One of the major challenges in the Bayesian solution of inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) is the computational cost of repeatedly evaluating numerical PDE models, as required by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for posterior sampling. This paper proposes a data-driven projection-based model reduction technique to reduce this computational cost. The proposed technique has two distinctive features. First, the model reduction strategy is tailored to inverse problems: the snapshots used to construct the reduced-order model are computed adaptively from the posterior distribution. Posterior exploration and model reduction are thus pursued simultaneously. Second, to avoid repeated evaluations of the full-scale numerical model as in a standard MCMC method, we couple the full-scale model and the reduced-order model together in the MCMC algorithm. This maintains accurate inference while reducing its overall computational cost. In numerical experiments considering steady-state flow in a porous medium, the data-driven reduced-order model achieves better accuracy than a reduced-order model constructed using the classical approach. It also improves posterior sampling efficiency by several orders of magnitude compared to a standard MCMC method

A comparative analysis of the cephalic microbiome: The ocular, aural, nasal/nasopharyngeal, oral and facial dermal niches

The human face/head supports a highly diverse population of microorganisms across a diverse range of microhabitats. This biogeographical diversity has given rise to selection pressure resulting in the formation of distinct bacterial communities between sites. This review investigates the similarity and differences of microbiomes across the different biogeographies of the human face and discusses a potential pathway for microbial circulation within individuals and within a population to maintain microbiome niches and diversity

Scalable posterior approximations for large-scale Bayesian inverse problems via likelihood-informed parameter and state reduction

Two major bottlenecks to the solution of large-scale Bayesian inverse problems are the scaling of posterior sampling algorithms to high-dimensional parameter spaces and the computational cost of forward model evaluations. Yet incomplete or noisy data, the state variation and parameter dependence of the forward model, and correlations in the prior collectively provide useful structure that can be exploited for dimension reduction in this setting-both in the parameter space of the inverse problem and in the state space of the forward model. To this end, we show how to jointly construct low-dimensional subspaces of the parameter space and the state space in order to accelerate the Bayesian solution of the inverse problem. As a byproduct of state dimension reduction, we also show how to identify low-dimensional subspaces of the data in problems with high-dimensional observations. These subspaces enable approximation of the posterior as a product of two factors: (i) a projection of the posterior onto a low-dimensional parameter subspace, wherein the original likelihood is replaced by an approximation involving a reduced model; and (ii) the marginal prior distribution on the high-dimensional complement of the parameter subspace. We present and compare several strategies for constructing these subspaces using only a limited number of forward and adjoint model simulations. The resulting posterior approximations can rapidly be characterized using standard sampling techniques, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. Two numerical examples demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of our approach: inversion of an integral equation in atmospheric remote sensing, where the data dimension is very high; and the inference of a h eterogeneous transmissivity field in a groundwater system, which involves a partial differential equation forward model with high dimensional state and parameters.United States. Department of Energy. Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (Grant DE-SC0009297

Multi-output multilevel best linear unbiased estimators via semidefinite programming

Multifidelity forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems often involve multiple quantities of interest and heterogeneous models (e.g., different grids, equations, dimensions, physics, surrogate and reduced-order models). While computational efficiency is key in this context, multi-output strategies in multilevel/multifidelity methods are either sub-optimal or non-existent. In this paper we extend multilevel best linear unbiased estimators (MLBLUE) to multi-output forward UQ problems and we present new semidefinite programming formulations for their optimal setup. Not only do these formulations yield the optimal number of samples required, but also the optimal selection of low-fidelity models to use. While existing MLBLUE approaches are single-output only and require a non-trivial nonlinear optimization procedure, the new multi-output formulations can be solved reliably and efficiently. We demonstrate the efficacy of the new methods and formulations in practical UQ problems with model heterogeneity.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures, 3 table

Ability of Essential Oil Vapours to Reduce Numbers of Culturable Aerosolised Coronavirus, Bacteria and Fungi

Transmission of pathogens present in the indoor air can occur through aerosols. This study evaluated the efficacy of an evaporated mix of essential oils to reduce the numbers of culturable aerosolized coronavirus, bacterium and fungus. The essential oil-containing gel was allowed to vaporize inside a glass chamber for 10 or 20 min. Aerosols of a surrogate of SARS-CoV-2, murine hepatitis coronavirus MHV-1, Escherichia coli or Aspergillus flavus spores were produced using a colli-sion nebuliser and passed through the essential oil vapours, then collected on a six-stage Andersen sampler. The six-stages of the impact sampler capture aerosols in sizes ranging from 7 to 0.65 µm. The number of culturable microbes present in the aerosols collected in the different stages were enumerated and compared to the number of culturable microbes in control microbial aerosols that were not exposed to the evaporated essential oils. After 10 and 20 min evaporation, the essential oils reduced the numbers of culturable aerosolized coronavirus by 48% (log10 reduction = 0.3; p = 0.002 vs. control) and 53% (log10 reduction = 0.3; p = 0.001 vs. control), respectively. The essential oils vaporised for 10 min, reduced the number of viable E. coli by 51% (log10 reduction = 0.3; p = 0.032 vs. control). The Aspergillus flavus spores were mostly observed in the larger aerosols (7.00 µm to 2.10 µm) and the essential oils vaporised for 10 min reduced the number of viable spores by 72% (log10 reduction = 0.6; p = 0.008 vs. control). The vapours produced by a gel containing naturally occurring essential oils were able to significantly reduce the viable numbers of aerosolized coronavirus, bacteria and fungal spores. The antimicrobial gel containing the essential oils may be able to reduce aerosol transmission of microbes when used in domestic and workplace settings