Are scenarios of hydrogen vehicle adoption optimistic? A comparison with historical analogies

AbstractThere is a large literature exploring possible hydrogen futures, using various modelling and scenario approaches. This paper compares the rates of transition depicted in that literature with a set of historical analogies. These analogies are cases in which alternative-fuelled vehicles have penetrated vehicle markets. The paper suggests that the literature has tended to be optimistic about the possible rate at which hydrogen vehicles might replace oil-based transportation. The paper compares 11 historical adoptions of alternative fuel vehicles with 24 scenarios from 20 studies that depict possible hydrogen futures. All but one of the hydrogen scenarios show vehicle adoption faster than has occurred for hybrid electric vehicles in Japan, the most successful market for hybrids. Several scenarios depict hydrogen transitions occurring at a rate faster than has occurred in any of the historic examples. The paper concludes that scenarios of alternative vehicle adoption should include more pessimistic scenarios alongside optimistic ones

Technology roadmaps for transition management: The case of hydrogen energy

AbstractTechnology roadmaps are increasingly used by governments to inform and promote technological transitions, such as a transition to a hydrogen energy system. This paper develops a framework for understanding how current roadmapping practice relates to emerging theories of the governance of systems innovation. In applying this framework to a case study of hydrogen roadmaps, the paper finds that roadmapping for transitions needs to place greater emphasis on ensuring good quality and transparent analytic and participatory procedures. To be most useful, roadmaps should be embedded within institutional structures that enable the incorporation of learning and re-evaluation, but in practice most transition roadmaps are one-off exercises

The political economy of actively phasing out harmful industries: Lessons from resource-based sectors beyond fossil fuels

The growing urgency of reducing fossil fuel consumption has spurred interest in the political economy dimensions of policies that aim to phase out existing industries. Much of this growing literature has focused on previous energy transitions and phase-outs. In this perspective article, I highlight the value of looking at cases beyond energy and fossil fuels to understand the dynamics of industry phase-out. To illustrate the point, I provide three short empirical case studies of industries in which policymakers have taken active steps to phase out or reduce specific industries. The cases are asbestos mining, tobacco cultivation, and cod fisheries in the UK's Humber region. The cases highlight the potential for economic diversification policies to both soften the blow faced by communities that are dependent on industries at the heart of phase-out policies, and to undermine the advocacy coalitions opposing phase-out policy. All three also suggest that cultural identity issues can play an important role in the politics of industry decline. The paper concludes by highlighting four avenues for future research into the political economy of actively phasing out harmful industries

Challenges and opportunities for energy system modelling to foster multi-level governance of energy transitions

Achieving the swift energy transition necessary to meet global climate ambitions requires concerted action across governance scales, from municipal authorities to national governments. Decision-making is often closely informed by energy system modelling, making energy models a crucial tool to foster a multi-level governance system that is based on mutual understanding and coordination across scales. Here, we review 186 energy modelling studies and identify challenges and opportunities for the energy modelling community to take into account and facilitate multi-level governance systems. We show that current energy modelling practices typically focus on and aim to support a single scale, largely overlooking the multi-level nature of energy governance. Embedding multi-level governance throughout the energy modelling process entails significant obstacles but is crucial for ensuring such approaches continue to provide timely and salient decision-support

Closing the loop on plastics in Europe: The role of data, information and knowledge

Concerns over plastic waste and support for a plastic circular economy have been growing in recent years. Specific needs to promote re-circulation of plastics in terms of data, information and knowledge are poorly understood. Based on the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions and semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, this paper aims to understand how information and knowledge issues may inhibit or foster the development of secondary plastics markets in Europe. Results highlight that key barriers associated with data-information-knowledge map across, and interact with, policies and standards, market and technology, socio-cultural norms, networks and business models. The packaging sector has drawn more policy attention, and institutions to support information sharing such as labelling and certification are more mature. The automotive and EEE sectors have illustrated knowledge diffusion through supply chain collaboration, while the construction sector appears to have slower practical progress on industry-level knowledge diffusion. This paper contributes to the multi-level perspective on transition studies by focusing the empirical work on a new area of plastic circular economy. The cases playing out across the whole value chain and four different application areas provide insights that are potentially more widely applicable to the circular economy transition processes in Europe

Insights into Scotland's climate and energy policies from energy systems modelling

Energy system models are powerful tools for examining the dynamics of a transition to a sustainable energy system. Here, we report the first application of a two-region version of the UK MARKAL energy system model that explicitly represents Scotland and the rest of the UK as distinct regions. We use this model to examine the implications of Scotland’s carbon and renewable energy targets, in the context of the targets legislated for the UK as a whole

Regional uptake of direct reduction iron production using hydrogen under climate policy

The need to reduce CO2 emissions to zero by 2050 has meant an increasing focus on high emitting industrial sectors such as steel. However, significant uncertainties remain as to the rate of technology diffusion across steel production pathways in different regions, and how this might impact on climate ambition. Informed by empirical analysis of historical transitions, this paper presents modelling on the regional deployment of Direction Reduction Iron using hydrogen (DRI-H2). We find that DRI-H2 can play a leading role in the decarbonisation of the sector, leading to near-zero emissions by 2070. Regional spillovers from early to late adopting regions can speed up the rate of deployment of DRI-H2, leading to lower cumulative emissions and system costs. Without such effects, cumulative emissions are 13% higher than if spillovers are assumed and approximately 15% and 20% higher in China and India respectively. Given the estimates of DRI-H2 cost-effectiveness relative to other primary production technologies, we also find that costs increase in the absence of regional spillovers. However, other factors can also have impacts on deployment, emission reductions, and costs, including the composition of the early adopter group, material efficiency improvements and scrap recycling rates. For the sector to achieve decarbonisation, key regions will need to continue to invest in low carbon steel projects, recognising their broader global benefit, and look to develop and strengthen policy coordination on technologies such as DRI-H2

The circular economy in China: Achievements, challenges and potential implications for decarbonisation

China's wide-ranging circular economy (CE) efforts have been studied multiple times from a range of perspectives. Synthesizing the relevant literature, this paper provides a critical reflection on the transition to a CE in China. Key factors for China's success in shifting towards a CE are seen in multi-level indicators and upscaling niches. This paper makes a novel contribution on limitations to progress, based on emerging evidence on CE projects that fail to sustain. Enriched by experts feedback, this paper critically addresses future challenges to a deep transition resulting from implementation gaps between early majorities and mass markets and coordination challenges arising through regional and sectoral differences. In light of China's commitments to climate neutrality by 2060, such challenges are considered serious. Based on feasible policy learning, the paper however proposes synergies between the CE and decarbonisation driven by efficiency improvements, comprehensive core indicators, upscaling and urban policies as trigger for deeper transformations. Finally the paper undertakes broader reflections and an outlook on evidence-orientated policy learning for a CE and decarbonisation in China

Closing the gap between research and projects in climate change innovation in Europe

Innovation is a key component to equip our society with tools to adapt to new climatic conditions. The development of research-action interfaces shifts useful ideas into operationalized knowledge allowing innovation to flourish. In this paper we quantify the existing gap between climate research and innovation action in Europe using a novel framework that combines artificial intelligence (AI) methods and network science. We compute the distance between key topics of research interest from peer review publications and core issues tackled by innovation projects funded by the most recent European framework programmes. Our findings reveal significant differences exist between and within the two layers. Economic incentives, agricultural and industrial processes are differently connected to adaptation and mitigation priorities. We also find a loose research-action connection in bioproducts, biotechnologies and risk assessment practices, where applications are still too few compared to the research insights. Our analysis supports policy-makers to measure and track how research funding result in innovation action, and to adjust decisions if stated priorities are not achieved

The circular economy in China: achievements, challenges and potential implications for decarbonisation

China's wide-ranging circular economy (CE) efforts have been studied multiple times from a range of perspectives. Synthesizing the relevant literature, this paper provides a critical reflection on the transition to a CE in China. Key factors for China's success in shifting towards a CE are seen in multi-level indicators and upscaling niches. This paper makes a novel contribution on limitations to progress, based on emerging evidence on CE projects that fail to sustain. Enriched by experts feedback, this paper critically addresses future challenges to a deep transition resulting from implementation gaps between early majorities and mass markets and coordination challenges arising through regional and sectoral differences. In light of China's commitments to climate neutrality by 2060, such challenges are considered serious. Based on feasible policy learning, the paper however proposes synergies between the CE and decarbonisation driven by efficiency improvements, comprehensive core indicators, upscaling and urban policies as trigger for deeper transformations. Finally the paper undertakes broader reflections and an outlook on evidence-orientated policy learning for a CE and decarbonisation in China