Can we improve the identification of cold homes for targeted home energy-efficiency improvements?

Objective: To investigate the extent to which homes with low indoor-temperatures can be identified from dwelling and household characteristics.Design: Analysis of data from a national survey of dwellings, occupied by low-income households, scheduled for home energy-efficiency improvements. Setting: Five urban areas of England: Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle and Southampton.Methods: Half-hourly living-room temperatures were recorded for two to four weeks in dwellings over the winter periods November to April 2001-2002 and 2002-2003. Regression of indoor on outdoor temperatures was used to identify cold-homes in which standardized daytime living-room and/ or nighttime bedroom-temperatures were < 16 degrees C (when the outdoor temperature was 5 degrees C). Tabulation and logistic regression were used to examine the extent to which these cold-homes can be identified from dwelling and household characteristics.Results: Overall, 21.0% of dwellings had standardized daytime living-room temperatures < 16 degrees C and 46.4% had standardized nighttime bedroom-temperatures below the same temperature. Standardized indoor-temperatures were influenced by a wide range of household and dwelling characteristics, but most strongly by the energy efficiency (SAP) rating and by standardized heating costs. However, even using these variables, along with other dwelling and household characteristics in a multi-variable prediction model, it would be necessary to target more than half of all dwellings in our sample to ensure at least 80% sensitivity for identifying dwellings with cold living-room temperatures. An even higher proportion would have to be targeted to ensure 80% sensitivity for identifying dwellings with cold-bedroom temperatures.Conclusion: Property and household characteristics provide only limited potential for identifying dwellings where winter indoor temperatures are likely to be low, presumably because of the multiple influences on home heating, including personal choice and behaviour. This suggests that the highly selective targeting of energy-efficiency programmes is difficult to achieve if the primary aim is to identify dwellings with cold-indoor-temperatures. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd

Adiposity, obesity, and arterial aging: longitudinal study of aortic stiffness in the Whitehall II cohort

We sought to determine whether adiposity in later midlife is an independent predictor of accelerated stiffening of the aorta. Whitehall II study participants (3789 men; 1383 women) underwent carotid-femoral applanation tonometry at the mean age of 66 and again 4 years later. General adiposity by body mass index, central adiposity by waist circumference and waist:hip ratio, and fat mass percent by body impedance were assessed 5 years before and at baseline. In linear mixed models adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, and mean arterial pressure, all adiposity measures were associated with aortic stiffening measured as increase in pulse wave velocity (PWV) between baseline and follow-up. The associations were similar in the metabolically healthy and unhealthy, according to Adult Treatment Panel-III criteria excluding waist circumference. C-reactive protein and interleukin-6 levels accounted for part of the longitudinal association between adiposity and PWV change. Adjusting for chronic disease, antihypertensive medication and risk factors, standardized effects of general and central adiposity and fat mass percent on PWV increase (m/s) were similar (0.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.24, P=0.003; 0.17, 0.08-0.27, P<0.001; 0.14, 0.05-0.22, P=0.002, respectively). Previous adiposity was associated with aortic stiffening independent of change in adiposity, glycaemia, and lipid levels across PWV assessments. We estimated that the body mass index-linked PWV increase will account for 12% of the projected increase in cardiovascular risk because of high body mass index. General and central adiposity in later midlife were strong independent predictors of aortic stiffening. Our findings suggest that adiposity is an important and potentially modifiable determinant of arterial aging

Physical Activity, Sedentary Behavior, and Long-Term Changes in Aortic Stiffness: The Whitehall II Study

BACKGROUND: Physical activity is associated with reduced cardiovascular disease risk, mainly through effects on atherosclerosis. Aortic stiffness may be an alternative mechanism. We examined whether patterns of physical activity and sedentary behavior are associated with rate of aortic stiffening. METHODS AND RESULTS: Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) was measured twice using applanation tonometry at mean ages 65 (in 2008/2009) and 70 (in 2012/2013) years in the Whitehall-II study (N=5196). Physical activity was self-reported at PWV baseline (2008/2009) and twice before (in 1997/1999 and 2002/2003). Sedentary time was defined as sitting time watching television or at work/commute. Linear mixed models adjusted for metabolic and lifestyle risk factors were used to analyze PWV change. Mean (SD) PWV (m/s) was 8.4 (2.4) at baseline and 9.2 (2.7) at follow-up, representing a 5-year increase of 0.76 m/s (95% CI 0.69, 0.83). A smaller 5-year increase in PWV was observed for each additional hour/week spent in sports activity (-0.02 m/s [95% CI -0.03, -0.001]) or cycling (-0.02 m/s [-0.03, -0.008]). Walking, housework, gardening, or do-it-yourself activities were not significantly associated with aortic stiffening. Each additional hour/week spent sitting was associated with faster PWV progression in models adjusted for physical activity (0.007 m/s [95% CI 0.001, 0.013]). Increasing physical activity over time was associated with a smaller subsequent increase in PWV (-0.16 m/s [-0.32, -0.002]) compared with not changing activity levels. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and avoidance of sedentary behavior were each associated with a slower age-related progression of aortic stiffness independent of conventional vascular risk factors

Association of aortic stiffness with cognitive decline: Whitehall II longitudinal cohort study

Aortic stiffness is associated with an increased risk of cardio- and cerebrovascular disease and mortality and may increase risk of dementia. The aim of the present study is to examine the association between arterial stiffness and cognitive decline in a large prospective cohort study with three repeated cognitive assessment over 7 years of follow-up. Aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) was measured among 4300 participants (mean ± standard deviation age 65.1 ± 5.2 years) in 2007–2009 and categorized based on the tertiles: (lowest third:  8.91 m/s). A global cognitive score was calculated in 2007–2009, 2012–2013, and 2015–2016 based on responses to memory, reasoning and fluency tests. Standardized global cognitive score (mean = 0, SD = 1) in highest third versus lowest third of PWV category was lower at baseline (− 0.12, 95% CI − 0.18, − 0.06). Accelerated 7-year cognitive decline was observed among individuals with the highest PWV [difference in 7-year cognitive change for highest third versus lowest third PWV: − 0.06, 95% CI − 0.11, − 0.01, P < 0.01]. Higher aortic stiffness was associated with faster cognitive decline. Clinicians may be able to use arterial stiffness severity as an indicator to administer prompt treatments to prevent or delay the onset of cognitive decline or dementia. Future studies need to determine whether early intervention of vascular stiffness is effective in delaying these outcomes

Dynamical tunneling in molecules: Quantum routes to energy flow

Dynamical tunneling, introduced in the molecular context, is more than two decades old and refers to phenomena that are classically forbidden but allowed by quantum mechanics. On the other hand the phenomenon of intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution (IVR) has occupied a central place in the field of chemical physics for a much longer period of time. Although the two phenomena seem to be unrelated several studies indicate that dynamical tunneling, in terms of its mechanism and timescales, can have important implications for IVR. Examples include the observation of local mode doublets, clustering of rotational energy levels, and extremely narrow vibrational features in high resolution molecular spectra. Both the phenomena are strongly influenced by the nature of the underlying classical phase space. This work reviews the current state of understanding of dynamical tunneling from the phase space perspective and the consequences for intramolecular vibrational energy flow in polyatomic molecules.Comment: 37 pages and 23 figures (low resolution); Int. Rev. Phys. Chem. (Review to appear in Oct. 2007

Physical Activity, Sedentary Behavior, and Long-Term Changes in Aortic Stiffness: The Whitehall II Study

BACKGROUND: Physical activity is associated with reduced cardiovascular disease risk, mainly through effects on atherosclerosis. Aortic stiffness may be an alternative mechanism. We examined whether patterns of physical activity and sedentary behavior are associated with rate of aortic stiffening. METHODS AND RESULTS: Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) was measured twice using applanation tonometry at mean ages 65 (in 2008/2009) and 70 (in 2012/2013) years in the Whitehall-II study (N=5196). Physical activity was self-reported at PWV baseline (2008/2009) and twice before (in 1997/1999 and 2002/2003). Sedentary time was defined as sitting time watching television or at work/commute. Linear mixed models adjusted for metabolic and lifestyle risk factors were used to analyze PWV change. Mean (SD) PWV (m/s) was 8.4 (2.4) at baseline and 9.2 (2.7) at follow-up, representing a 5-year increase of 0.76 m/s (95% CI 0.69, 0.83). A smaller 5-year increase in PWV was observed for each additional hour/week spent in sports activity (-0.02 m/s [95% CI -0.03, -0.001]) or cycling (-0.02 m/s [-0.03, -0.008]). Walking, housework, gardening, or do-it-yourself activities were not significantly associated with aortic stiffening. Each additional hour/week spent sitting was associated with faster PWV progression in models adjusted for physical activity (0.007 m/s [95% CI 0.001, 0.013]). Increasing physical activity over time was associated with a smaller subsequent increase in PWV (-0.16 m/s [-0.32, -0.002]) compared with not changing activity levels. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and avoidance of sedentary behavior were each associated with a slower age-related progression of aortic stiffness independent of conventional vascular risk factors

In the best interests of the deceased: A possible justification for organ removal without consent?

Opt-out systems of postmortem organ procurement are often supposed to be justifiable by presumed consent, but this justification turns out to depend on a mistaken mental state conception of consent. A promising alternative justification appeals to the analogical situation that occurs when an emergency decision has to be made about medical treatment for a patient who is unable to give or withhold his consent. In such cases, the decision should be made in the best interests of the patient. The analogous suggestion to be considered, then, is, if the potential donor has not registered either his willingness or his refusal to donate, the probabilities that he would or would not have preferred the removal of his organs need to be weighed. And in some actual cases the probability of the first alternative may be greater. This article considers whether the analogy to which this argument appeals is cogent, and concludes that there are important differences between the emergency and the organ removal cases, both as regards the nature of the interests involved and the nature of the right not to be treated without one’s consent. Rather, if opt-out systems are to be justified, the needs of patients with organ failure and/or the possibility of tacit consent should be considered