Reforming the Defined-Benefit Pension System

Defined-benefit pensions typically expose workers to a form of financial risk that they are ill positioned to bear and unable to hedge. If workers understand that risk, they will offer employers a lower “price” (in the form of salary concessions) than the capital markets would offer for the same cash flow. The resulting financial inefficiency reduces the value of the firm sponsoring the pension plan. The paper identifies reforms that would essentially eliminate the financial risk borne by workers and hence the financial inefficiency inherent in risky pensions. It would also essentially eliminate the substantial financial exposure currently borne by taxpayers. The key reform elements are tighter rules governing funding and portfolio investment, market-oriented pricing of the insurance offered by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, and improved disclosure of information related to pension plans in firms’ public financial statements, in the federal budget, and in statements provided to workers.macroeconomics, defined-benefit pension, pension system, financial risk

Some Evidence on Finite Sample Behavior of an Instrumental Variables Estimator of the Linear Quadtratic Inventory Model

We evaluate some aspects of the finite sample distribution of an instrumental variables estimator of a first order condition of the Holt et al. (1960) linear quadratic inventory model. We find that for some but not all empirically relevant data generating processes and sample sizes, asymptotic theory predicts a wide dispersion of parameter estimates, with a substantial finite sample probability of estimates with incorrect signs. For such data generating processes, simulation evidence suggests that different choices of left hand side variables often produce parameter estimates of an opposite sign. More generally, while the asymptotic theory often provides a good approximation to the finite sample distribution, sometimes it does not

Alternative strategies for aggregating prices in the CPI

Consumer price indexes ; Prices

Fiscal Policy and Social Security Policy During the 1990s

This paper reviews the course of fiscal policy and Social Security policy during the 1990s. The 1990s witnessed two fundamental changes in U.S. fiscal policy: a dramatic improvement in the current and projected budget balance, and a shift to a new political consensus in favor of balancing the budget excluding Social Security rather than the unified budget. The dramatic improvement in the budget outlook stemmed both from favorable developments in the economic environment and from deliberate policy actions that reduced budget deficits and later did not spend down the surpluses. In contrast, the 1990s did not witness significant changes in Social Security policy, although alternative visions of Social Security reform received tremendous analytic and popular attention. The 1994-1996 Advisory Council on Social Security presented three reform plans that placed important emphasis on additional prefunding. Each involved some form of investment in equities either centrally, through the trust fund, or in a decentralized manner, through individual accounts. Late in the decade, with the emergence of on-budget surpluses, the possibility of general revenue contributions to the Social Security system came under serious consideration. In the end, President Clinton decided to pursue Social Security reform based on general revenue contributions to the trust fund and centralized investment in equities rather than creating individual accounts, but his proposal was not adopted.

Quality Improvement in Health Care: A Framework for Price and Output Measurement

The durability of health care treatment, the substantial technical change in health care treatment, and the prevalence of third-party payment interact to create substantial difficulty in measuring the price and output of health care. This paper provides a framework for analyzing the demand for health care taking into account these difficulties. It then suggests how this framework might be used to improve measurement of health care prices and output.