MODEL PREDIKSI DATA HARGA MINYAK MENTAH DUNIA DENGAN METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Harga Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) menjadi suatu faktor penting yang perlu dikontrol oleh pemerintah. Harga BBM ini dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor, salah satunya adalah harga minyak mentah dunia. Oleh karena fluktuatifnya harga minyak mentah dunia, perlu diperhatikan perkembangan harga minyak mentah di pasar global. Peramalan harga minyak mentah dunia juga perlu dilakukan untuk memperkirakan harga minyak mentah dunia di masa depan. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan peramalan harga minyak mentah dunia untuk tahun 2023. Data yang digunakan adalah data tahun 2020 sampai dengan 2022, sebanyak 700 observasi. Peramalan dilakukan dengan metode exponential smoothing dengan menggunakan nilai alpha yang paling optimal. Diperoleh nilai optimal alpha adalah sebesar 0.21. Metrik evaluasi model peramalan yang digunakan adalah MAD, RMSE, MAPE, MPE, dan MASE. Kelima metrik evaluasi model peramalan tersebut menghasilkan nilai yang kecil yang mengindikasikan bahwa model peramalan sesuai untuk meramalkan harga minyak mentah dunia. Hasil peramalan dengan metode exponential smoothing terhadap harga minyak mentah dunia menunjukkan bahwa harga minyak mentah dunia diperkirakan akan mengalami tren naik untuk 100 periode mendatang dengan nilai berkisar diantara 75 sampai dengan 90 USD / barrel. Kata Kunci : peramalan, harga minyak mentah, harga BBM, exponential smoothin

Model Penerapan Knowledge Management System Untuk Penyusunan Tugas Akhir Berbasis Teknologi Mobile Menggunakan J2me (Studi Kasus STMIK Subang)

Knowledge management system merupakan dalil siklus dari knowledge creation, knowledge retention, knowledge sharing, knowledge utilization dan implementasi dari transformasi tacit to tacit (sosialization), tacit to explicit (externalization), explicit to explicit (combination) dan explicit to tacit (internalization). Perguruan tinggi adalah tempat penciptaan, penghimpunan dan penyebaran knowledge. Akan tetapi permasalahan terbatasnya ruang dan waktu membuat pengelolaan knowledge yang ada belum maksimal. Dengan model penerapan knowledge mangement system untuk penyusunan tugas akhir maka terjadi diskusi antara mahasiswa, dosen dan alumni untuk menciptakan dan berbagi knowledge dapat dilakukan, sehingga permasalahan terbatasnya ruang dan waktu dapat teratasi

Pengaruh Price Bundling dan Product Bundling terhadap Niat Membeli yang Dimoderasi oleh Barang Komplementaritas

This research aim to examine the affects of price bundling, product bundling on purchase intention and complementary product as moderating variable in convenience store. Sample was taken with purposive method as much 160 sample in questionnaire survey with closed question and 5-point likert scale. the collected data was processed using SmartPLS02. As the result of hyphoteis test are H1 accepted, which means that the price bundling variable has a significant on purchase intention. H2 is accepted, which means product bundling variable has a significant on purchase intention. H3 is accepted, which means complementary product has moderating effect on on relationship of price bundling to purchase intention. H4 is rejected, which means complementary product can’t be moderating variable on relationship of product bundling to purchase intention. Based on the result, price bundling and product bundling has a signinficant effect on purchase intention.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji pengaruh bundling harga, bundling produk terhadap niat beli dan produk pelengkap sebagai variabel pemoderasi di convenience store. Sampel diambil dengan metode purposive sebanyak 168 sampel dalam survei kuesioner dengan pertanyaan tertutup dan skala likert 5 poin. data yang dikumpulkan diproses menggunakan SmartPLS02. Sebagai hasil dari tes hyphoteis diterima H1, yang berarti bahwa variabel bundling harga memiliki signifikan terhadap niat beli. H2 diterima, yang berarti variabel bundling produk berpengaruh signifikan terhadap niat beli. H3 diterima, yang berarti produk pelengkap memiliki efek moderat pada hubungan bundling harga dengan niat beli. H4 ditolak, yang berarti produk pelengkap tidak dapat memoderasi variabel hubungan bundling produk dengan niat beli. Berdasarkan hasil, bundling harga dan bundling produk memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap niat beli

PENGARUH ORIENTASI PASAR, ORIENTASI KEWIRAUSAHAAN DAN KEMAMPUAN PEMASARAN, TERHADAP KINERJA BISNIS UMKM CLOTHING LINE

One of driven national economy in Indonesian had been provided from the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), They play essential role both in national trade and labour force, According to survey data from the Central Statistics (BPS) MSMEs contributed 7,38% to national economy in 2016, In addition, fashion industry rose gradually 8,7% compared in last year with the amount of export finished $13.29 billion in 2017. Moreover, MSMEs absorb around 97% of the national workforce, while Large Enterprises only absorb around 3% of the total national workforce and Indonesian MSME businesses that are urgently needed by Micro Enterprises. This depencency encourage the competition indirectly, as a result businesses in the fashion need to consider market orientation to find opportunity, innovativey through entrepreneurial orientation, and marketing capabilities to maintain their business. This reseearch was conducted to investigate the effect of market orientation, enterpenuership orientation, market capabilities on the performance of MSME businesses. The research method used is an associative method, with primary and secondary data types as a reference. Respondents collected in this study were 150 respondents, with closed questionnaire containing 15 question attributes. In essence, the present studies found market orientation, entrepreneurship orientation were not significant, this result may not hold support business performance. On the other hand, market orientation, entrepreneurship orientation had significant outcomes and indicates both of market and enterprenuership orientation can drivers the using of marketing capabilities. Similar results, marketing capabilities had significant effect to business performance. However, like any empirical research , this study has limitations, Based on this research, firstly the results have only been tested in one industry, additionally the role of internet had change trend of market orientation, market capabilities. This findings can be hint to another researcher to explore in technology as third party in case of sharing econom

ENTREPRENEURIAL LEADERSHIP UNTUK MENYONGSONG REVOLUSI INDUSTRI 4.0

The demand of labour scarcity problem had been surge while the availability of labour market outpacing the available job. The data from BPS (2020) shows people graduated from higher school had a largest contribution compared from the other. Looking at this situation Indonesia ministry of industry (Kemenperin) recall an action to give an outlook of Industrial Revolution as an opportunity to drive more entrepreneur in Indonesia. It believes, Indonesia have a prolific people to compete the other South East Asian Country. However, the novelty of COVID-19 pandemic hardly hit many sector business, some of business also furlough or even to rid off their employee. As a result, negative growth is unavoidable, in April- June accounted to decreased -5,32% at least to be compared economic performance in year-to-year period. In order to cope the foresee situation, this community services had an initiative to emerged entrepreneurial leadership in industrial revolution era for higher education student. The aim of this services are to creating a young entrepreneur in future. Furthermore, two communication seminar was held in online media via (google meet) in Monday, mei 4th 2020 at 11.00pm until 13.00 pm.  As a result, a positive feedback given by the student and they suggested to recall again with the specific issue in entrepreneurship area

The Analysis Of Service Quality Using Importance Performance Analysis For Mrt Jakarta

Public infrastructure and congestion issues become salient problems in Indonesia. According to INRIX Global Traffic Scoreboard (2018): Jakarta was ranked as twelfth worst in the world. Air quality also becoming another issues that derived from traffic congestion causing air pollution. To mitigate this issue, government has been established MRT Jakarta in 2019. This study aims to evaluate and improving service level of Moda Raya Terpadu (MRT) in order to encourage more people using public transportation, moreover altering people using public transportation would reduce the amount of fossil fuels and reducing bad air pollution for a better climate. Methodolgy of the research using service quality theory with five dimension from Parasuraman et. al, and extended in Importance Performance Analysis (IPA) method. Therefore, data was distributed using questionnaire with 18 item measurement and 102 respondents was collected. As a result, tangibility, reliability, and responsiveness dimension had been classified in quadrant one, followed assurance dimension in quadrant two, however empathy dimension had been measured in quadrant four and indicates to be improved

Komparasi Performansi Algoritma Naive Bayes dan Logistic Regression pada Malware Android

Currently, Indonesian people have used Internet technology for various needs. Starting from transportation, shopping to the world of education using the Internet. Equipment in accessing the Internet varies, ranging from computers, laptops to communication devices such as mobile devices. Currently, mobile devices that are quite widely used by the public are mobile devices based on the Android operating system. In this situation it encourages certain parties to take advantage of loopholes to seek profit, one of which is the creation of Malware. In addition, developments in the field of artificial intelligence are currently very advanced and encourage many researches in various fields to use it. This situation makes researchers focus on malware analysis by utilizing artificial intelligence technology. The purpose of this study is to analyze Android APK files by classifying the Malware family. Performance and accuracy measurements will also be presented in a comparison between the Naïve Bayes algorithm and the Logistic Regression algorithm. The method used is Supervised Learning classification, using Naïve Bayes algorithm and Logistic Regression. Everywhere both methods are Machine Learning algorithms and part of artificial intelligence

Simulation of waves with highly inaccurate input

This paper deals with wave simulations for which the input data are highly inaccurate. Inaccuracies can consistent of high levels of noise or strongly mutilated wave forms. Such inaccuracies can occur in various applications, one of which is in coastal wave prediction using remotely observed waves upstream. Wave data from radar images obtained at a ship or at the coast is already used to determine statistical properties of the approaching wave field, properties such as significant wave height, period and wavelength. For various modern coastal engineering applications it is desired to obtain time accurate information of incoming waves. To predict the incoming waves, we propose new methods to improve the inaccurate input in a dynamic simulation model that calculates the evolution of the waves towards the vessel. For the dynamic evolution we use a linear spectral code with exact dispersion. This model calculates the elevation from input that consists of the elevation at one or more specified positions upstream. The input is processed in an embedded way, i.e. by a source in the governing dynamic equation. We will show effects of inaccuracies at the input positions and show that averaging of multiple in puts will increase the prediction at the position of the vessel. Using synthetic data, the improvement is shown for inaccuracies caused by noise and caused by mutilations that remove partly or completely the waveform below the still water level

Peran CSR Dalam Mempengaruhi Pembelian Impulsif di Masa Pandemik

Data collection from world meters shows 6 months after announcement of the corona pandemic, several countries began to experience handling of corona cases which began to decline, however this was not the same as the results for several other countries, some countries showed cases that were increasing from day to day. data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2020 was minus to 5.32 percent. On a quarterly basis, the economy contracted 4.19 percent and cumulatively contracted 1.26 percent. Because of this, many companies are looking for ways to increase purchases. Scrutinized the data, the increase in the use of CSR has soared, proactively many companies have begun to engage in various CSR activities. One of the companies that are aggressively implementing CSR programs in helping others is online transportation providers; gojek. By providing the option of providing food to ojol partners (online motorcycle taxis) several options are offered to provide assistance. The sampling technique used in this study is to use a non-probability sampling method, which is a sampling technique that does not provide equal opportunities for each member of the population to selected to be the sample. Measurement of data in this study was carried out using a Likert scale. The development of this instrument contains a total of 16 attributes developed from each variable as a measurement basis for data collection with the sample used in this study being consumers who have the Gojek application. The data collected will be processed with SPSS software for data analysis in testing the validity, reliability, classical assumptions as verification of the strength of the research