A Study on the Trends of Rainfall Patterns in the Intermediate and Dry Zones of Sri Lanka A Comparative Study for the Periods Ranging from 1941-1970 and 1971-2000

Since Sri Lanka is a tropical island unstable nature of the tropics has madeseveral temporal and spatial variations in rainfall throughout the island. Rainfall is oneof the principal factors that has been used to identify the three broad climatic zones inSri Lanka, namely the Wet zone, Intermediate zone and Dry zone. Much of thescientific researches on the rainfall pattern in Sri Lanka have revealed that most of themeteorological stations had recorded decreasing trends of rainfall during the past 100years. The present study attempts to ascertain the validity of these findings withreference to the study area of Intermediate and Dry zones of Sri Lanka (hereafterreferred to as the Intermediate and Dry zones). Considering the agricultural economy,the Dry and the Intermediate zones have been contributing towards more than 90% ofthe islands paddy. However, these two climatic zones show water surpluses in onlythree months (October to December) of the year. With this brief background, the presentstudy aims to identify the trends in rainfall in the Intermediate and the Dry Zones.Micro level framework is used for the selection of rainfall reporting stations andagro-ecological regions of these two zones. Accordigly 14 rainfall reporting stationshave selected for the study. Further, this is a comparative study of two 30 year periodsranging from 1941-1970 (1st period) and 1971-2000 (2nd period) and its seasons (FirstInter Monsoon (FIM), South West Monsoon (SEM), Second Inter Monsoon (SIM) andNorth East Monsoon (NEM). Time series analysis is employed for the identification ofany positive or negative trends of rainfall and the analysis is done on annual andseasonal basis.The results obtained from the analysis revealed that the highest and the lowestpositive trends belong to the 2nd period. It is clear that both highest and lowest negativetrends are apparent in the 1st period. All positive trends of the FIM in the 1st period havechanged into negative trends in the 2nd period. During the SWM, the highest positivetrend is showed in the 2nd period.Keywords: Rainfall Pattern, Intermediate Zone, Dry Zone, Positive Trend, NegativeTren

Moving up the processing ladder in primary product exports: Sri Lanka's "value-added" tea industry

Governments in many developing countries, influenced by the experience of the East Asian newly industrialized countries, have adopted policies to enhance domestic processing of primary commodities as a tool for accelerating employment growth, export revenues, and development. Sri Lanka has traditionally exported tea in the form of bulk (commodity) teas, but "value-added" teas such as packaged teas, tea bags, etc., have expanded in recent years. This article examines factors affecting the processing of value-added tea products in Sri Lanka by modeling export supply behavior. Estimates of the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics of export supply are presented and discussed. The price of value-added tea relative to bulk tea, and industry capacity, are identified as the main determinants of export supply, while exchange rate changes have no discernible effect. The policy implications of the analysis for enhancing further expansion of such value-added teas are presented. These are of interest for both policy makers and development analysts. In particular, the reasons that undermine the effectiveness of exchange rate policy as an instrument to stimulate value addition of primary products have much relevance for similar developing countries. Copyright 2005 International Association of Agricultural Economics.