End of the crisis in the housing markets ? An international survey

The article examines recent developments in international housing markets and makes an assessment of the current situation. The first section demonstrates that the last upward movement in house prices in advanced economies, that started during the mid-1990s, differed from previous upward phases because of its strength, duration and degree of synchronisation across countries. Low interest rates, financial innovation, relaxed credit conditions and demographic factors stimulated housing demand and led to higher prices and investment. The strongest increases were recorded in the UK, Spain, Ireland and France. Starting around the mid-2000s, housing markets increasingly displayed signs of overheating and the American subprime crisis of 2006 triggered a downward correction in the US housing market. Housing markets elsewhere displayed a similar pattern around the same period. Nevertheless, developments were less synchronised during this downturn than during the upturn, as the fall in house prices seems to be over in some countries while the correction continues in other countries. The degree of over- or undervaluation of recent house prices can be calculated on the basis of some frequently used measures. Taking into account fundamental factors like disposable income, population growth and the very low interest rate level, it appears that current prices in most countries are more or less in line with fundamentals. These simple measures have their limitations, and consequently one should be cautious when interpreting the results. Additionally, several common risk factors (normalisation of interest rates, lower potential growth after the economic crisis, fiscal consolidation) and some country-specific risk factors might hinder a further recovery of housing markets. The recent crisis clearly demonstrated the need for stricter rules and control of the financial sector. Various initiatives have already been taken, and international institutions have also formulated recommendations for housing policy reform and the functioning of residential property and mortgage markets. Subsequently, the European government debt crisis that started in 2010 stimulated initiatives to strengthen economic governance in the European Union. In the new surveillance framework, macroeconomic risks will be monitored more closely and more broadly, and this will include the use of indicators related to the housing sector.house prices, investment in housing, interest rates, financial innovation, demography, valuation, disposable income, United States, United Kingdom, euro area, Belgium

Excluding hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by serology in young infants of HCV-infected mothers

Aim: To identify the age at which HCV infection can be accurately excluded by serology in young children born to HCV-infected mothers and to determine an appropriate schedule of antibody testing, most informative to clinical practice. Methods: Children born to HCV-infected mothers were followed in centres of the European Paediatric HCV Network. Turnbull survival analysis techniques were used to estimate the age at which HCV-uninfected children will lose maternally acquired HCV antibodies. Factors associated with age at antibody loss were assessed in logistic regression. Results: In 1104 children followed from birth and later confirmed to be HCV uninfected, an estimated 57% will have lost passively acquired HCV antibodies before 6 mo of age and an estimated 95% by 12 mo. Maternal HCV viraemia antenatally was associated with later, and maternal HIV-HCV co-infection with earlier loss of antibody. Actual antibody testing of uninfected children at 12 mo identified 82% of those tested to be anti-HCV negative. Conclusions: Serological confirmation of HCV uninfection remains necessary given the uncertainty in the specificity of virological tests. These results suggest that, in most children, HCV infection can be ruled out with serological testing at an earlier age than previously thought, and that nearly all children born to HCV-infected mothers will have lost passively acquired maternal antibodies by 1 y of age. Antibody loss was significantly later among children born to HCV viraemic mothers. The earlier loss of HCV antibodies in children born to HIV co-infected mothers may be due to HIV treatment. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.0SCOPUS: ar.jFLWINinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Exposure to antiretroviral therapy in utero or early life: The health of uninfected children born to HIV-infected women

Concerns have been raised over possible adverse effects of prophylactic antiretroviral therapy (ART) on the fetus and newborn. We analyzed data relating to uninfected children enrolled in the European Collaborative Study and investigated the association between ART exposure, perinatal problems, and major adverse health events later in life. Median length of follow-up was 2.2 (0-15.9) years. Of the 2414 uninfected children, 687 (28%) were exposed to ART in all three periods (antenatal, intrapartum, and neonatal). Of the 1008 infants exposed to ART at any time, 906 (90%) were exposed antenatally, 840 (83%) neonatally, and 750 (74%) both antenatally and neonatally. ART exposure was not significantly associated with pattern or prevalence of congenital abnormalities or low birth weight. In multivariate analysis, prematurity was associated with exposure to combination therapy without a protease inhibitor (PI) (OR = 2.66; 95% CI: 1.52-4.67) and with a PI (OR = 4.14; 95% CI: 2.36-7.23). ART exposure was associated with anemia in early life (p < .001). There was no evidence of an association with clinical manifestations suggestive of mitochondrial abnormalities. The absence of serious adverse events in this large cohort of uninfected children exposed to prophylactic ART in the short to medium term is reassuring.0SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

HIV-infected pregnant women and vertical transmission in Europe since 1986

Objective: To describe changes over a 15-year period in characteristics and management of HIV-infected pregnant women in Europe. Design: Prospective study. Methods: Analysis of prospective data on 2876 pregnant HIV-infected women and their 3076 infants. Factors examined included maternal socio-demographic, immunological and virological characteristics, antiretroviral therapy and pregnancy outcome. Results: Among women enrolled, the proportion with heterosexual acquisition of infection has increased significantly from 59% (201/342) in 1985-1987 to 69% (327/471) after 1997 while the proportion acquiring HIV through injecting drug use has declined. Overall median CD4 cell count was 440 × 106/l and 41% of women had undetectable viral load at delivery. In 1995 28% (72/256) of mother-child pairs received the full 076 regimen to reduce risk of vertical transmission, rising significantly to 89% (116/130) by 1999. Use of triple therapy started in pregnancy has increased significantly from < 1% (1/153) in 1997 to 44% (47/107) in 1999. Exposure to antiretroviral therapy was not associated with prevalence or pattern of congenital abnormalities (P = 0.88) but was associated with reversible anaemia in the infant (P < 0.002). The elective cesarean section rate has increased from 10% in 1992 to 71% in 1999/2000. The vertical transmission rate declined from 15.5% by 1994 to 2.6% after 1998. In multivariate analysis, adjusting for maternal CD4 cell count, risk of vertical transmission was reduced by 66% (95% confidence interval, 37-82%) with the full 076 regimen and by 60% (95% confidence interval, 33-73%) with elective cesarean section delivery. Conclusions: Changes in treatment of adult HIV disease have affected the management of infected pregnant women. Despite therapeutic and surgical interventions, vertical transmission still occurs. © 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe