Interpreting methane variations in the past two decades using measurements of CH4 mixing ratio and isotopic composition

The availability 13C-CH4 measurements from atmospheric samples has significantly improved in recent years, which allows the construction of time series spanning up to about 2 decades. We have used these measurements to investigate the cause of the methane growth rate decline since 1980, with a special focus on the period 1998–2006 when the methane growth came to a halt. The constraints provided by the CH4 and 13C-CH4 measurements are used to construct hypothetical source and sink scenarios, which are translated into corresponding atmospheric concentrations using the atmospheric transport model TM3 for evaluation against the measurements. The base scenario, composed of anthropogenic emissions according to EDGAR 4.0, constant emissions from natural sources, and a constant atmospheric lifetime, overestimates the observed global growth rates of CH4 and 13C-CH4 by, respectively, 10 ppb yr−1 and 0.02‰yr−1 after the year 2000. It proves difficult to repair this inconsistency by modifying trends in emissions only, notably because a temporary reduction of isotopically light sources, such as natural wetlands, leads to a further increase of 13C-CH4. Furthermore, our results are difficult to reconcile with the estimated increase of 5 TgCH4 yr−1 in emissions from fossil fuel use in the period 2000–2005. On the other hand, we find that a moderate (less than 5% per decade) increase in the global OH concentration can bring the model in agreement with the measurements for plausible emission scenarios. This study demonstrates the value of global monitoring of methane isotopes, and calls for further investigation into the role OH and anthropogenic emissions to further improve our understanding of methane variations in recent years.JRC.H.2-Air and Climat

Data descriptor: a global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high-and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python. (TABLE) Since the pioneering work of D'Arrigo and Jacoby1-3, as well as Mann et al. 4,5, temperature reconstructions of the Common Era have become a key component of climate assessments6-9. Such reconstructions depend strongly on the composition of the underlying network of climate proxies10, and it is therefore critical for the climate community to have access to a community-vetted, quality-controlled database of temperature-sensitive records stored in a self-describing format. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) 2k consortium, a self-organized, international group of experts, recently assembled such a database, and used it to reconstruct surface temperature over continental-scale regions11 (hereafter, ` PAGES2k-2013'). This data descriptor presents version 2.0.0 of the PAGES2k proxy temperature database (Data Citation 1). It augments the PAGES2k-2013 collection of terrestrial records with marine records assembled by the Ocean2k working group at centennial12 and annual13 time scales. In addition to these previously published data compilations, this version includes substantially more records, extensive new metadata, and validation. Furthermore, the selection criteria for records included in this version are applied more uniformly and transparently across regions, resulting in a more cohesive data product. This data descriptor describes the contents of the database, the criteria for inclusion, and quantifies the relation of each record with instrumental temperature. In addition, the paleotemperature time series are summarized as composites to highlight the most salient decadal-to centennial-scale behaviour of the dataset and check mutual consistency between paleoclimate archives. We provide extensive Matlab code to probe the database-processing, filtering and aggregating it in various ways to investigate temperature variability over the Common Era. The unique approach to data stewardship and code-sharing employed here is designed to enable an unprecedented scale of investigation of the temperature history of the Common Era, by the scientific community and citizen-scientists alike

Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed. © Springer-Verlag 2008

Deuterium excess record from central Greenland - modelling and observations

International audienc

An automated system for hydrogen isotope analysis of water

International audienc

Interpreting methane variations in the past two decades using measurements of CH4 mixing ratio and isotopic composition

The availability δ13C-CH4 measurements from atmospheric samples has significantly improved in recent years, which allows the construction of time series spanning up to about 2 decades. We have used these measurements to investigate the cause of the methane growth rate decline since 1980, with a special focus on the period 1998–2006 when the methane growth came to a halt. The constraints provided by the CH4 and δ13C-CH4 measurements are used to construct hypothetical source and sink scenarios, which are translated into corresponding atmospheric concentrations using the atmospheric transport model TM3 for evaluation against the measurements. The base scenario, composed of anthropogenic emissions according to EDGAR 4.0, constant emissions from natural sources, and a constant atmospheric lifetime, overestimates the observed global growth rates of CH4 and δ13C-CH4 by, respectively, 10 ppb yr−1 and 0.02‰ yr−1 after the year 2000. It proves difficult to repair this inconsistency by modifying trends in emissions only, notably because a temporary reduction of isotopically light sources, such as natural wetlands, leads to a further increase of δ13C-CH4. Furthermore, our results are difficult to reconcile with the estimated increase of 5 Tg CH4 yr−1 in emissions from fossil fuel use in the period 2000–2005. On the other hand, we find that a moderate (less than 5% per decade) increase in the global OH concentration can bring the model in agreement with the measurements for plausible emission scenarios. This study demonstrates the value of global monitoring of methane isotopes, and calls for further investigation into the role OH and anthropogenic emissions to further improve our understanding of methane variations in recent years

Interpreting methane variations in the past two decades using measurements of CH4 mixing ratio and isotopic composition

The availability δ13C-CH4 measurements from atmospheric samples has significantly improved in recent years, which allows the construction of time series spanning up to about 2 decades. We have used these measurements to investigate the cause of the methane growth rate decline since 1980, with a special focus on the period 1998–2006 when the methane growth came to a halt. The constraints provided by the CH4 and δ13C-CH4 measurements are used to construct hypothetical source and sink scenarios, which are translated into corresponding atmospheric concentrations using the atmospheric transport model TM3 for evaluation against the measurements. The base scenario, composed of anthropogenic emissions according to EDGAR 4.0, constant emissions from natural sources, and a constant atmospheric lifetime, overestimates the observed global growth rates of CH4 and δ13C-CH4 by, respectively, 10 ppb yr−1 and 0.02‰ yr−1 after the year 2000. It proves difficult to repair this inconsistency by modifying trends in emissions only, notably because a temporary reduction of isotopically light sources, such as natural wetlands, leads to a further increase of δ13C-CH4. Furthermore, our results are difficult to reconcile with the estimated increase of 5 Tg CH4 yr−1 in emissions from fossil fuel use in the period 2000–2005. On the other hand, we find that a moderate (less than 5% per decade) increase in the global OH concentration can bring the model in agreement with the measurements for plausible emission scenarios. This study demonstrates the value of global monitoring of methane isotopes, and calls for further investigation into the role OH and anthropogenic emissions to further improve our understanding of methane variations in recent years

Holocene hydrological cycle changes in the Southern Hemisphere documented in East Antarctic deuterium excess records

International audienceFour Holocene-long East Antarctic deuterium excess records are used to study past changes of the hydrological cycle in the Southern Hemisphere. We combine simple and complex isotopic models to quantify the relationships between Antarctic deuterium excess fluctuations and the sea surface temperature (SST) integrated over the moisture source areas for Antarctic snow. The common deuterium excess increasing trend during the first half of the Holocene is therefore interpreted in terms of a warming of the average ocean moisture source regions over this time. Available Southern Hemisphere SST records exhibit opposite trends at low latitudes (warming) and at high latitudes (cooling) during the Holocene. The agreement between the Antarctic deuterium excess and low-latitude SST trends supports the idea that the tropics dominate in providing moisture for Antarctic precipitation. The opposite trends in SSTs at low and high latitudes can potentially be explained by the decreasing obliquity during the Holocene inducing opposite trends in the local mean annual insolation between low and high latitudes. It also implies an increased latitudinal insolation gradient that in turn can maintain a stronger atmospheric circulation transporting more tropical moisture to Antarctica. This mechanism is supported by results from a mid-Holocene climate simulation performed using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

The climate signal in the stable isotopes of snow from Summit, Greenland: Results of comparisons with modern climate observations

International audienceRecent efforts to link the isotopic composition of snow in Greenland with meteorological and climatic parameters have indicated that relatively local information such as observed annual temperatures from coastal Greenland sites, as well as more synoptic scale features such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the temperature seesaw between Jakobshaven, Greenland, and Oslo, Norway, are significantly correlated with 8180 and 8D values from the past few hundred years measured in ice cores. In this study we review those efforts and then use a new record of isotope values from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Greenland Ice Core Project sites at Summit, Greenland, to compare with meteorological and climatic parameters. This new record consists of six individual annually resolved isotopic records which have been average to produce a Summit stacked isotope record. The stacked record is significantly correlated with local Greenland temperatures over the past century (r = 0.471), as well as a number of other records including temperatures and pressures from specific locations as well as temperature and pressure patterns such as the temperature seesaw and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A multiple linear regression of the stacked isotope record with a number of meteorological and climatic parameters in the North Atlantic region reveals that five variables contribute significantly to the variance in the isotope record: winter NAO, solar irradiance (as recorded by sunspot numbers), average Greenland coastal temperature, sea surface temperature in the moisture source region for Summit (30ø-20øN), and the annual temperature seesaw between Jakobshaven and Oslo. Combined, these variables yield a correlation coefficient of r = 0.71, explaining half of the variance in the stacked isotope record