Typhoons and Temperature Impact Crime Rates: Evidence from the Philippines

This study assesses the impact of typhoons and temperature on interpersonal, property, and non-index crime rates using a novel data set from the Philippines. Distributed lag OLS regression analysis shows that in the concurrent year of increased precipitation, theft rates decrease, but in the year following high average wind-speeds, theft rates increase again. The only significant result of impacts crimes against persons is the rate of physical injury which decreases in years of higher precipitation. These results are defended by interview and focus group information. This study also shows that higher average temperatures cause significantly higher rates of murder, index crimes, and non-index crimes in the concurrent year and increased murder in the lagged year as well. These results uphold conclusions from previous research, and make substantial contributions to the existing knowledge on this subject. The conclusions drawn here have significant implications as our climate continues to change