The Global Economic Recession and Industrial Structure: Evidence from Four Asian Dragons

The collapse of exports that has attended the current global economic recession threatens the export-led economic growth of the four Asian dragons. To better understand the economic performances and future prospects of the four dragons, this paper first examines the economic structural changes that have taken place in Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China, as well as the gradual shifting of the sources of economic growth away from the manufacturing sector and toward the service sector. Following this, a panel data set for the four dragons for the period 1995–2008 is constructed and a fixed-effects model applied to the data.global economic recession; asian dragons; new service development; industrial structure

Estimating Long Memory Time-Series-Cross-Section Data

This paper extends the MD (multiple differenced) methodology of Tsay (2006) to estimate a class of time-series-cross-section (TSCS) models consisting of stationary or nonstationary long memory regressors and errors, while allowing for correlations and heteroskedasticities in both cross-section and time dimensions. Interestingly, the regression coefficients of these models still can be easily tested with the MD-based approach using the critical values from the standard normal distribution. Under various combinations of long memory processes and cross-section dimensions, the finite sample performance of the MD-based method is promising even though the time span is only 20. We then apply this method to reexamine the data of Hicks and Swank (1992). The testing results are more in line with the findings in Beck and Katz (1995) whereby the evidence for positive voter turnout effects in Hicks and Swank (1992) is no more highly statistically significant when the number of differencing is greater than or equal to 1.

Flavor Structure of the Nucleon Sea

We review the current status and future prospects on the subject of flavor structure of the nucleon sea. The flavor structure of the nucleon sea provides unique information on the non-perturbative aspects of strong interactions allowing stringent tests of various models on the partonic structures of the nucleons as well as lattice QCD calculations. The scope of this review covers the unpolarized, polarized, and the transverse-momentum dependent sea-quark distributions of the nucleons. While the main focus of this review is on the physics motivation and recent progress on the subject of the nucleon sea, we also discuss future prospects of addressing some outstanding issues on the flavor structure of the nucleon sea.Comment: 61 pages and 36 figures; published versio

A Generalized ARFIMA Process with Markov-Switching Fractional Differencing Parameter

We propose a general class of Markov-switching-ARFIMA processes in order to combine strands of long memory and Markov-switching literature. Although the coverage of this class of models is broad, we show that these models can be easily estimated with the DLV algorithm proposed. This algorithm combines the Durbin-Levinson and Viterbi procedures. A Monte Carlo experiment reveals that the finite sample performance of the proposed algorithm for a simple mixture model of Markov-switching mean and ARFIMA(1, d, 1) process is satisfactory. We apply the Markov-switching-ARFIMA models to the U.S. real interest rates, the Nile river level, and the U.S. unemployment rates, respectively. The results are all highly consistent with the conjectures made or empirical results found in the literature. Particularly, we confirm the conjecture in Beran and Terrin (1996) that the observations 1 to about 100 of the Nile river data seem to be more independent than the subsequent observations, and the value of differencing parameter is lower for the first 100 observations than for the subsequent data.Markov chain; ARFIMA process; Viterbi algorithm; Long memory.

Responses of Real Output in Serbia to the Financial and Global Economic Conditions

Applying and extending Taylor (1993, 1999) and Romer (2000, 2006), this paper examines output fluctuations for Serbia based on a simultaneous equation model consisting of the open-economy IS function, the monetary policy function, and uncovered interest parity. The GARCH(1,0) model is employed because the residual variance is affected by the past variance. Real GDP is positively affected by the real stock price and real government deficit and negatively influenced by expected real depreciation of the dinar, the world real interest rate, and the inflation rate. There are significant seasonal effects. Therefore, a healthy stock market, a stronger dinar, a lower world real interest rate, a lower inflation rate, and an active fiscal policy will play important roles in the recovery of the Serbian economy.monetary policy function, uncovered interest parity, exchange rate, world interest rate, inflation rate, government deficit

Estimating fixed-effect panel stochastic frontier models by model transformation

Traditional panel stochastic frontier models do not distinguish between unobserved individual heterogeneity and inefficiency. They thus force all time-invariant individual heterogeneity into the estimated inefficiency. Greene (2005) proposes a true fixed-effect stochastic frontier model which, in theory, may be biased by the incidental parameters problem. The problem usually cannot be dealt with by model transformations owing to the nonlinearity of the stochastic frontier model. In this paper, we propose a class of panel stochastic frontier models which create an exception. We show that first-difference and within-transformation can be analytically performed on this model to remove the fixed individual effects, and thus the estimator is immune to the incidental parameters problem. Consistency of the estimator is obtained by either N→∞ or T→∞, which is an attractive property for empirical researchersStochastic frontier models; Fixed effects; Panel data