Fletcher-Turek Model Averaged Profile Likelihood Confidence Intervals

We evaluate the model averaged profile likelihood confidence intervals proposed by Fletcher and Turek (2011) in a simple situation in which there are two linear regression models over which we average. We obtain exact expressions for the coverage and the scaled expected length of the intervals and use these to compute these quantities in particular situations. We show that the Fletcher-Turek confidence intervals can have coverage well below the nominal coverage and expected length greater than that of the standard confidence interval with coverage equal to the same minimum coverage. In these situations, the Fletcher-Turek confidence intervals are unfortunately not better than the standard confidence interval used after model selection but ignoring the model selection process

A quartet of fermionic expressions for M(k,2k±1)M(k,2k\pm1) Virasoro characters via half-lattice paths

We derive new fermionic expressions for the characters of the Virasoro minimal models $M(k,2k\pm1)$ by analysing the recently introduced half-lattice paths. These fermionic expressions display a quasiparticle formulation characteristic of the $\phi_{2,1}$ and $\phi_{1,5}$ integrable perturbations. We find that they arise by imposing a simple restriction on the RSOS quasiparticle states of the unitary models $M(p,p+1)$. In fact, four fermionic expressions are obtained for each generating function of half-lattice paths of finite length $L$, and these lead to four distinct expressions for most characters $\chi^{k,2k\pm1}_{r,s}$. These are direct analogues of Melzer's expressions for $M(p,p+1)$, and their proof entails revisiting, reworking and refining a proof of Melzer's identities which used combinatorial transforms on lattice paths. We also derive a bosonic version of the generating functions of length $L$ half-lattice paths, this expression being notable in that it involves $q$-trinomial coefficients. Taking the $L\to\infty$ limit shows that the generating functions for infinite length half-lattice paths are indeed the Virasoro characters $\chi^{k,2k\pm1}_{r,s}$.Comment: 29 pages. v2: minor improvements, references adde