A Homological Approach to Belief Propagation and Bethe Approximations

We introduce a differential complex of local observables given a decomposition of a global set of random variables into subsets. Its boundary operator allows us to define a transport equation equivalent to Belief Propagation. This definition reveals a set of conserved quantities under Belief Propagation and gives new insight on the relationship of its equilibria with the critical points of Bethe free energy.Comment: 14 pages, submitted for the 2019 Geometric Science of Information colloquiu

Risk factors for acquisition of hepatitis C virus infection: a case series and potential implications for disease surveillance

Background: Transmission of hepatitis C vims ( HCV) is strongly associated with use of contaminated blood products and injection drugs. Other "non-parental" modes of transmission including sexual activity have been increasingly recognized. We examined risk factors for acquiring HCV in patients who were referred to two tertiary care centers and enrolled in an antiviral therapy protocol. Methods: Interviews of 148 patients were conducted apart from their physician evaluation using a structured questionnaire covering demographics and risk factors for HCV acquisition. Results: Risk factors ( blood products, injection/intranasal drugs, razor blades/toothbrushes, body/ear piercing, occupational exposure, sexual activity) were identified in 141 (95.3%) of participants; 23 (15.5%) had one ( most frequently blood or drug exposure), 41 (27.7%) had two, and 84 (53.4%) had more than two risk factors. No patient reported sexual activity as a sole risk factor. Body piercing accounted for a high number of exposures in women. Men were more likely to have exposure to street drugs but less exposure to blood products than women. Blood product exposure was less common in younger than older HCV patients. Conclusion: One and often multi le risk factors could be identified in nearly all HCV-infected patients seen in a referral practice. None named sexual transmission as the sole risk factor. The development of a more complete profile of factors contributing to transmission of HCV infection may assist in clinical and preventive efforts. The recognition of the potential presence of multiple risk factors may have important implications in the a roach to HCV surveillance, and particularly the use of hierarchical algorithms in the study of risk factors

Population-level effect of HSV-2 therapy on the incidence of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection increases acquisition and transmission of HIV, but the results of trials measuring the impact of HSV-2 therapy on HIV genital shedding and HIV acquisition are mixed, and the potential impact of HSV-2 therapy on the incidence of HIV at the population level is unknown. METHODS: The effects of episodic and suppressive HSV-2 therapy were simulated using the individual-level model STDSIM fitted to data from Cotonou, Benin (relatively low HIV prevalence) and Kisumu, Kenya (high HIV prevalence). Clinician- and patient-initiated episodic therapy, started when symptomatic, were assumed to reduce ulcer duration. Suppressive therapy, given regardless of symptoms, was also assumed to reduce ulcer frequency and HSV-2 infectiousness. RESULTS: Clinician-initiated episodic therapy in the general population had almost no effect on the incidence of HIV. The impact of patient-initiated therapy was higher because of earlier treatment initiation, but still low (20% in the long term. Impact was increased in both cities by also treating a proportion of their clients. Long-term suppressive therapy with high coverage in the general population could reduce HIV incidence by more than 30%. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that HSV-2 therapy could potentially have a population-level impact on the incidence of HIV, especially in more concentrated epidemics. However, a substantial impact requires high coverage and long duration therapy, or very high symptom recognition and treatment-seeking behaviour

Physiotherapy scoliosis-specific exercises: a comprehensive review of seven major schools

In recent decades, there has been a call for change among all stakeholders involved in scoliosis management. Parents of children with scoliosis have complained about the so-called “wait and see” approach that far too many doctors use when evaluating children’s scoliosis curves between 10° and 25°. Observation, Physiotherapy Scoliosis Specific Exercises (PSSE) and bracing for idiopathic scoliosis during growth are all therapeutic interventions accepted by the 2011 International Society on Scoliosis Orthopaedic and Rehabilitation Treatment (SOSORT). The standard features of these interventions are: 1) 3-dimension self-correction; 2) Training activities of daily living (ADL); and 3) Stabilization of the corrected posture. PSSE is part of a scoliosis care model that includes scoliosis specific education, scoliosis specific physical therapy exercises, observation or surveillance, psychological support and intervention, bracing and surgery. The model is oriented to the patient. Diagnosis and patient evaluation is essential in this model looking at a patient-oriented decision according to clinical experience, scientific evidence and patient’s preference. Thus, specific exercises are not considered as an alternative to bracing or surgery but as a therapeutic intervention, which can be used alone or in combination with bracing or surgery according to individual indication. In the PSSE model it is recommended that the physical therapist work as part of a multidisciplinary team including the orthopeadic doctor, the orthotist, and the mental health care provider - all are according to the SOSORT guidelines and Scoliosis Research Society (SRS) philosophy. From clinical experiences, PSSE can temporarily stabilize progressive scoliosis curves during the secondary period of progression, more than a year after passing the peak of growth. In non-progressive scoliosis, the regular practice of PSSE could produce a temporary and significant reduction of the Cobb angle. PSSE can also produce benefits in subjects with scoliosis other than reducing the Cobb angle, like improving back asymmetry, based on 3D self-correction and stabilization of a stable 3D corrected posture, as well as the secondary muscle imbalance and related pain. In more severe cases of thoracic scoliosis, it can also improve breathing function. This paper will discuss in detail seven major scoliosis schools and their approaches to PSSE, including their bracing techniques and scientific evidence. The aim of this paper is to understand and learn about the different international treatment methods so that physical therapists can incorporate the best from each into their own practices, and in that way attempt to improve the conservative management of patients with idiopathic scoliosis. These schools are presented in the historical order in which they were developed. They include the Lyon approach from France, the Katharina Schroth Asklepios approach from Germany, the Scientific Exercise Approach to Scoliosis (SEAS) from Italy, the Barcelona Scoliosis Physical Therapy School approach (BSPTS) from Spain, the Dobomed approach from Poland, the Side Shift approach from the United Kingdom, and the Functional Individual Therapy of Scoliosis approach (FITS) from Poland

Synthetic Food Colors and Neurobehavioral Hazards: The View from Environmental Health Research

Background: The proposition that synthetic food colors can induce adverse behavioral effects in children was first enunciated in 1975 by Feingold [Why Your Child Is Hyperactive. New York:Random House (1975)], who asserted that elevated sensitivity to food additives underlies the signs of hyperactivity observed in some children. Although the evidence suggested that some unknown proportion of children did respond to synthetic food colors, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) interpreted the evidence as inconclusive. A study published in 2007 [McCann et al. Food additives and hyperactive behaviour in 3-year-old and 8/9-year-old children in the community: a randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial. Lancet 370:1560–1567 (2007)] drew renewed attention to the hypothesis because of the study’s size and scope. It led the FDA to review the evidence, hold a public hearing, and seek the advice of its Food Advisory Committee. In preparation for the hearing, the FDA reviewed the available evidence and concluded that it did not warrant further agency action

Temperature effects on zoeal morphometric traits and intraspecific variability in the hairy crab Cancer setosus across latitude

International audiencePhenotypic plasticity is an important but often ignored ability that enables organisms, within species-specific physiological limits, to respond to gradual or sudden extrinsic changes in their environment. In the marine realm, the early ontogeny of decapod crustaceans is among the best known examples to demonstrate a temperature-dependent phenotypic response. Here, we present morphometric results of larvae of the hairy crab , the embryonic development of which took place at different temperatures at two different sites (Antofagasta, 23°45′ S; Puerto Montt, 41°44′ S) along the Chilean Coast. Zoea I larvae from Puerto Montt were significantly larger than those from Antofagasta, when considering embryonic development at the same temperature. Larvae from Puerto Montt reared at 12 and 16°C did not differ morphometrically, but sizes of larvae from Antofagasta kept at 16 and 20°C did, being larger at the colder temperature. Zoea II larvae reared in Antofagasta at three temperatures (16, 20, and 24°C) showed the same pattern, with larger larvae at colder temperatures. Furthermore, larvae reared at 24°C, showed deformations, suggesting that 24°C, which coincides with temperatures found during strong EL Niño events, is indicative of the upper larval thermal tolerance limit.   is exposed to a wide temperature range across its distribution range of about 40° of latitude. Phenotypic plasticity in larval offspring does furthermore enable this species to locally respond to the inter-decadal warming induced by El Niño. Morphological plasticity in this species does support previously reported energetic trade-offs with temperature throughout early ontogeny of this species, indicating that plasticity may be a key to a species' success to occupy a wide distribution range and/or to thrive under highly variable habitat conditions

Clinical improvement and radiological progression in a girl with early onset scoliosis (EOS) treated conservatively – a case report

BACKGROUND: Chêneau-Brace treatment of a certain standard reduces the rate of surgery, prevents progression and in a certain patient population leads to marked improvement of Cobb angle and cosmetic appearance. During the last two years a patient refusing surgery with a double major curvature of initially 60° showed a clear cosmetic improvement and a clear radiological progression at the same time. The findings of this patient have been reviewed in order to find out how cosmetic appearance and Cobb angle can develop differently. METHODS: The patient entered conservative treatment at the age of 13 years, premenarchial with Tanner II and a Cobb angle of 60° thoracic and 59° lumbar. The angle of trunk rotation (ATR; Scoliometer) was 13° thoracic and 13° lumbar. We have documented the findings of this patient (Surface topography, ATR, Cobb angles and angles of vertebral rotation (according to Raimondi) during the treatment period (27 Month) until 2 years after the onset of menarche. RESULTS: After a treatment time of 27 Month the Cobb angle increased to 74° thoracic and 65° lumbar. The angles of vertebral rotation according to Raimondi increased slightly from 26° thoracic and 28° lumbar to 30° thoracic and 28° lumbar. The ATR improved to 12° thoracic and 5° lumbar while Lateral deviation improved from 22,4 mm to 4,6 mm and average surface rotation improved from 10,6° to 6°. In the X-rays a reduction of decompensation was visible. The patient felt comfortable with the cosmetic result. CONCLUSION: Conservative treatment may improve cosmetic appearance while the curve progresses radiologically. This could be explained by assuming that (1) the Rigo Chêneau brace is able to improve cosmetic appearance by changing the shape of the thorax when the curve itself is too stiff to be corrected by a brace, that (2) reduction of decompensation leads to significant cosmetical improvements or (3) that the patient gained weight and therefore the deformation is masked. However, the weight the patient gained cannot explain the cosmetical improvement in this case. Conservative treatment with a certain standard of quality seems a viable alternative for patients with Cobb angles of > 60° when surgical treatment is refused. Specialists in scoliosis management should be aware of the fact that curve progression can occur even if the clinical measurements show an improvement

Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points Assessment as a Tool to Respond to Emerging Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) strain H5N1 has had direct and indirect economic impacts arising from direct mortality and control programmes in over 50 countries reporting poultry outbreaks. HPAI H5N1 is now reported as the most widespread and expensive zoonotic disease recorded and continues to pose a global health threat. The aim of this research was to assess the potential of utilising Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points (HACCP) assessments in providing a framework for a rapid response to emerging infectious disease outbreaks. This novel approach applies a scientific process, widely used in food production systems, to assess risks related to a specific emerging health threat within a known zoonotic disease hotspot. We conducted a HACCP assessment for HPAI viruses within Vietnam’s domestic poultry trade and relate our findings to the existing literature. Our HACCP assessment identified poultry flock isolation, transportation, slaughter, preparation and consumption as critical control points for Vietnam’s domestic poultry trade. Introduction of the preventative measures highlighted through this HACCP evaluation would reduce the risks posed by HPAI viruses and pressure on the national economy. We conclude that this HACCP assessment provides compelling evidence for the future potential that HACCP analyses could play in initiating a rapid response to emerging infectious diseases

Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Male Circumcision at Different Ages in Rwanda: A Cost-Effectiveness Study

Agnes Binagwaho and colleagues predict that circumcision of newborn boys would be effective and cost-saving as a long-term strategy to prevent HIV in Rwanda