The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian analysis

Background: Accurate measures of the severity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (pH1N1) are needed to assess the likely impact of an anticipated resurgence in the autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. Severity has been difficult to measure because jurisdictions with large numbers of deaths and other severe outcomes have had too many cases to assess the total number with confidence. Also, detection of severe cases may be more likely, resulting in overestimation of the severity of an average case. We sought to estimate the probabilities that symptomatic infection would lead to hospitalization, ICU admission, and death by combining data from multiple sources. Methods and Findings: We used complementary data from two US cities: Milwaukee attempted to identify cases of medically attended infection whether or not they required hospitalization, while New York City focused on the identification of hospitalizations, intensive care admission or mechanical ventilation (hereafter, ICU), and deaths. New York data were used to estimate numerators for ICU and death, and two sources of data - medically attended cases in Milwaukee or self-reported influenza-like illness (ILI) in New York - were used to estimate ratios of symptomatic cases to hospitalizations. Combining these data with estimates of the fraction detected for each level of severity, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic patients who died (symptomatic case-fatality ratio, sCFR), required ICU (sCIR), and required hospitalization (sCHR), overall and by age category. Evidence, prior information, and associated uncertainty were analyzed in a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. Using medically attended cases and estimates of the proportion of symptomatic cases medically attended, we estimated an sCFR of 0.048% (95% credible interval [CI] 0.026%-0.096%), sCIR of 0.239% (0.134%-0.458%), and sCHR of 1.44% (0.83%-2.64%). Using self-reported ILI, we obtained estimates approximately 7-96lower. sCFR and sCIR appear to be highest in persons aged 18 y and older, and lowest in children aged 5-17 y. sCHR appears to be lowest in persons aged 5-17; our data were too sparse to allow us to determine the group in which it was the highest. Conclusions: These estimates suggest that an autumn-winter pandemic wave of pH1N1 with comparable severity per case could lead to a number of deaths in the range from considerably below that associated with seasonal influenza to slightly higher, but with the greatest impact in children aged 0-4 and adults 18-64. These estimates of impact depend on assumptions about total incidence of infection and would be larger if incidence of symptomatic infection were higher or shifted toward adults, if viral virulence increased, or if suboptimal treatment resulted from stress on the health care system; numbers would decrease if the total proportion of the population symptomatically infected were lower than assumed.published_or_final_versio

School closures during the 2009 influenza pandemic: national and local experiences

Background: School closure is a non-pharmaceutical intervention that was considered in many national pandemic plans developed prior to the start of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, and received considerable attention during the event. Here, we retrospectively review and compare national and local experiences with school closures in several countries during the A(H1N1) pdm09 pandemic. Our intention is not to make a systematic review of country experiences; rather, it is to present the diversity of school closure experiences and provide examples from national and local perspectives. Methods: Data were gathered during and following a meeting, organized by the European Centres for Disease Control, on school closures held in October 2010 in Stockholm, Sweden. A standard data collection form was developed and sent to all participants. The twelve participating countries and administrative regions (Bulgaria, China, France, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Serbia, South Africa, Thailand, United Kingdom, and United States) provided data. Results: Our review highlights the very diverse national and local experiences on school closures during the A (H1N1) pdm09 pandemic. The processes including who was in charge of making recommendations and who was in charge of making the decision to close, the school-based control strategies, the extent of school closures, the public health tradition of responses and expectations on school closure varied greatly between countries. Our review also discusses the many challenges associated with the implementation of this intervention and makes recommendations for further practical work in this area. Conclusions: The single most important factor to explain differences observed between countries may have been the different public health practises and public expectations concerning school closures and influenza in the selected countries

Correlation of In Vitro Susceptibilities to Newer Quinolones of Naturally Occurring Quinolone-Resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae Strains with Changes in GyrA and ParC

The in vitro activities of ciprofloxacin, trovafloxacin, moxifloxacin, and grepafloxacin against 174 strains of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolated in Sydney, Australia, were determined. The strains included 84 quinolone-less-sensitive and -resistant N. gonorrhoeae (QRNG) strains for which ciprofloxacin MICs were in the range of 0.12 to 16 μg/ml. The QRNG included strains isolated from patients whose infections were acquired in a number of countries, mostly in Southeast Asia. The gyrA and parC quinolone resistance-determining regions (QRDR) of 18 selected QRNG strains were sequenced, and the amino acid mutations observed were related to the MICs obtained. The activities of moxifloxacin and grepafloxacin against QRNG were comparable to that of ciprofloxacin. Trovafloxacin was more active than the other quinolones against some but not all of the QRNG strains. Increments in ciprofloxacin resistance occurred in a step-wise manner with point mutations initiated in gyrA resulting in amino acid alterations Ser91-to-Phe, Ser91-to-Tyr, Asp95-to-Gly, and Asp95-to-Asn. Single gyrA changes correlated with ciprofloxacin MICs in the range 0.12 to 1 μg/ml. The Ser91 changes in GyrA were associated with higher MICs and further QRDR changes. QRNG strains for which ciprofloxacin MICs were greater than 1 μg/ml had both gyrA and parC QRDR point mutations. ParC alterations were seen in these isolates only in the presence of GyrA changes and comprised amino acid changes Asp86-to-Asn, Ser87-to-Asn, Ser87-to-Arg, Ser88-to-Pro, Glu91-to-Lys, and Glu91-to-Gln. QRNG strains for which MICs were in the higher ranges had double GyrA mutations, but again only with accompanying ParC alterations. Not only did the nature and combination of GyrA and ParC changes influence the incremental increases in ciprofloxacin MICs, but they seemingly also altered the differential activity of trovafloxacin. Our findings suggest that the newer quinolones of the type examined are unlikely to be useful replacements for ciprofloxacin in the treatment of gonorrhea, particularly where ciprofloxacin MICs are high or where resistance is widespread

Hepatitis A: Old and New

The hepatitis A virus (HAV), a picornavirus, is a common cause of hepatitis worldwide. Spread of infection is generally person to person or by oral intake after fecal contamination of skin or mucous membranes; less commonly, there is fecal contamination of food or water. Hepatitis A is endemic in developing countries, and most residents are exposed in childhood. In contrast, the adult population in developed countries demonstrates falling rates of exposure with improvements in hygiene and sanitation. The export of food that cannot be sterilized, from countries of high endemicity to areas with low rates of infection, is a potentially important source of infection. After ingestion and uptake from the gastrointestinal tract, the virus replicates in the liver and is excreted into the bile. Cellular immune responses to the virus lead to destruction of infected hepatocytes with consequent development of symptoms and signs of disease. Humoral immune responses are the basis for diagnostic serologic assays. Acute HAV infection is clinically indistinguishable from other causes of acute viral hepatitis. In young children the disease is often asymptomatic, whereas in older children and adults there may be a range of clinical manifestations from mild, anicteric infection to fulminant hepatic failure. Clinical variants include prolonged, relapsing, and cholestatic forms. Management of the acute illness is supportive, and complete recovery without sequelae is the usual outcome. Research efforts during World War II led to the development of passive immunoprophylaxis. Pooled immune serum globulin is efficacious in the prevention and attenuation of disease in exposed individuals. More recently, active immunoprophylaxis by vaccination has been accomplished. Future eradication of this disease can now be contemplated