Ten Years After: The Lasting Impact of the Asian Financial Crisis

This article was published in the Asia Program, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, publication entitled Ten Years After: Revisiting the Asian Financial Crisis, October 2007. The e-book is available free online (PDF). The article argues that the most important long-term impact of the East Asian financial crisis, a decade later, has been that it began a process that led to the collapse of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) influence over middle-income countries. This was partly a result of the Fund's role in the crisis, detailed in the article, which was widely seen as a major failure. Partly as a result of this experience, the middle-income Asian countries have accumulated large reserve holdings and largely removed themselves from IMF influence. The IMF's authority and credibility was further undermined in the Argentine crisis of 1998-2003. In recent years the availability of alternative sources of credit, especially in Latin America, have led to the collapse of the IMF's "creditors' cartel" in that region and among middle-income countries generally. The author argues that this is the most important change in the international financial system since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system in 1973. For the foreseeable future, any positive financial reforms will be made at the national and regional level -- e.g., with the extension of such arrangements of the Chiang Mai Initiative. This is because the high-income countries are not significantly closer to supporting reforms at the level of the international financial system or institutions than they were a decade ago. It will also be important for low-income countries, where the IMF still retains its role as "gatekeeper" for official credit, to become independent from the Fund so they can pursue more effective macroeconomic and development policies

Bolivia's Economy: The First Year

This issue brief describes Bolivia's economy in the first year of Evo Morales' presidency. There were improvements in most of the major economic indicators, as well as some new initiatives by the government to fulfill its promises to the country's impoverished majority

The United States and the World: Where Are We Headed?

The United States appears to be embarking on a transition on two major fronts: its own economy, both financial and real; and its relations with the rest of the world. There is some relation between these two transitions. Some of these changes will depend on the outcome of the U.S. national election in November, and some will not. This paper will present a brief overview of current trends, with some attention given to U.S. foreign policy in Latin America, as well as other areas

Argentina: The Crisis That Isn't

This report looks at Argentina's current debt, fiscal, and overall economic situation to see if there is justification for concerns that Argentina is facing serious economic problems that could lead to a default on its sovereign debt. The Argentine economy has grown more than 60 percent since its recovery began six years ago, has trade and current account surpluses, and has declining levels of debt relative to GDP and other indicators. It also has a large amount of reserves relative to potential debt financing shortfalls. The paper finds that there is little or no basis for the fear that Argentina might default on its sovereign debt at any time in the foreseeable future, or indeed even the more distant future

Peru's Election: Background on Economic Issues

This backgrounder provides information on the economic issues addressed in Peru's presidential election in April 2006.

CEPR Responds to the IMF’s Reply and Defense of Its Policies During the World Recession

This paper is part of a discussion between CEPR and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding CEPR’s paper, “IMF-Supported Macroeconomic Policies and the World Recession: A Look at Forty-One Borrowing Countries.” An IMF representative presented a response to that paper at an October 15, 2009 event in Washington D.C., in remarks and a power point presentation. The earlier CEPR paper examined IMF agreements with 41 countries during the current global recession and found that 31 of the 41 countries had implemented pro-cyclical policies – for example cutting spending or tightening monetary policy -- that would be expected to exacerbate an economic downturn. This new discussion paper responds to the IMF's defense of its policies.IMF

An Empty Research Agenda: The Creation of Myths About Contemporary Venezuela

This paper looks at allegations against the government of Venezuela in Foreign Affairs' recently published article, "An Empty Revolution: The Unfulfilled Promises of Hugo Chávez" (March/April 2008), in light of available data. It shows that some of the allegations are altogether wrong, and others grossly exaggerated and/or misleading.Chavez, Venezuela, poverty

Argentina: The Crisis that Isn't

This report looks at Argentina’s current debt, fiscal, and overall economic situation to see if there is justification for concerns that Argentina is facing serious economic problems that could lead to a default on its sovereign debt. The Argentine economy has grown more than 60 percent since its recovery began six years ago, has trade and current account surpluses, and has declining levels of debt relative to GDP and other indicators. It also has a large amount of reserves relative to potential debt financing shortfalls. The paper finds that there is little or no basis for the fear that Argentina might default on its sovereign debt at any time in the foreseeable future, or indeed even the more distant future.Argentina, Argentina crisis, Argentina debt

How Not to Attack an Economist (and an Economy): Getting the Numbers Right

This paper continues a debate over the extent of economic and social progress in Venezuela that began with an article in the March/April 2008 issue of Foreign Affairs. This article argued that “a close look at the evidence reveals just how much Chávez's 'revolution' has hurt Venezuela's economy -- and that the poor are hurting most of all.” CEPR responded with “An Empty Research Agenda: The Creation of Myths About Contemporary Venezuela,” showing that the main allegations of the article were wrong. The author of the Foreign Affairs article, economist Francisco Rodriguez, then responded with an Economics Working Paper at Wesleyan University, which defended his original analysis. The current paper demonstrates that Rodriguez's assertions in his response are almost all without merit. His argument that inequality has increased during the Chávez years is contradicted by the best available data (in fact these data show a reduction in inequality). His claim that the amount of poverty reduction in Venezuela during the last four years, relative to its economic growth, compares unfavorably to other countries is clearly wrong; in fact, Venezuela's poverty reduction has been much better than the vast majority of countries for the amount of growth that it has had. His argument that the Chávez government did not demonstrate any change of priorities with regard to public spending is wrong and misleading and his assertion that Venezuela's literacy program has not had any distinguishable effect on literacy cannot be demonstrated from the data that he uses.Chavez, Venezuela, poverty

Argentina's Economic Recovery: Policy Choices and Implications

This paper examines Argentina's current economic expansion, which is now more than five and a half years old, and that far exceeded the expectations of most economists and the business media. There are a number of policy choices that seem to have contributed to the recovery, some of them unorthodox and controversial. Among these were the Central Bank's targeting of a stable and competitive exchange rate; Argentina's break with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its policy prescriptions; and the default on its debt and maintenance of a hard line with its international creditors. The paper suggests that Argentina's experience could have important implications for other developing countries