Ecosystem Interactions Underlie the Spread of Avian Influenza A Viruses with Pandemic Potential

Despite evidence for avian influenza A virus (AIV) transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems, the roles of bird migration and poultry trade in the spread of viruses remain enigmatic. In this study, we integrate ecosystem interactions into a phylogeographic model to assess the contribution of wild and domestic hosts to AIV distribution and persistence. Analysis of globally sampled AIV datasets shows frequent two-way transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems. In general, viral flow from domestic to wild bird populations was restricted to within a geographic region. In contrast, spillover from wild to domestic populations occurred both within and between regions. Wild birds mediated long-distance dispersal at intercontinental scales whereas viral spread among poultry populations was a major driver of regional spread. Viral spread between poultry flocks frequently originated from persistent lineages circulating in regions of intensive poultry production. Our analysis of long-term surveillance data demonstrates that meaningful insights can be inferred from integrating ecosystem into phylogeographic reconstructions that may be consequential for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH Centers for Excellence in Influenza Research and Surveillance (CEIRS, contract # HHSN266200700010C))National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH Centers for Excellence in Influenza Research and Surveillance (CEIRS, contract # HHSN272201400008C))National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH Centers for Excellence in Influenza Research and Surveillance (CEIRS, contract # HHSN272201400006C)

Comparison of the novel ResPlex III assay and existing techniques for the detection and subtyping of influenza virus during the influenza season 2006–2007

Influenza virus is a major cause of disease worldwide. The accurate detection and further subtyping of influenza A viruses are important for epidemiologic surveillance, and subsequent comprehensive characterization of circulating influenza viruses is essential for the selection of an optimal vaccine composition. ResPlex III is a new multiplex reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-based method for detecting, typing, and subtyping influenza virus in clinical specimens. The ResPlex III assay was compared with other methods with respect to sensitivity and accuracy, using 450 clinical specimens obtained from subjects throughout Germany during the 2006–2007 influenza season. Samples were analyzed for the presence of influenza virus in Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells by rapid cell culture using peroxidase staining and conventional cell culture confirmed by hemagglutination inhibition assay, a rapid diagnostic assay (Directigen Flu A+B test; BD Diagnostic Systems, Heidelberg, Germany), in-house real-time RT-PCR (RRT-PCR), and ResPlex III (Qiagen, Hilden, Germany). ResPlex III had the highest sensitivity for detecting influenza virus in clinical specimens, followed by in-house RRT-PCR (96% compared with ResPlex III). Conventional cell culture in MDCK cells, rapid culture, and quick test assays were substantially less sensitive (55%, 72%, and 39%, respectively). Virus subtyping results were identical using ResPlex III and the standard virological subtyping method, hemagglutination inhibition. ResPlex III is a quick, accurate, and sensitive assay for detecting and typing influenza A and B viruses and subtyping influenza A viruses in clinical specimens, and might be considered for a supplemental role in worldwide seasonal and pandemic influenza surveillance

Dynamic Health Policies for Controlling the Spread of Emerging Infections: Influenza as an Example

The recent appearance and spread of novel infectious pathogens provide motivation for using models as tools to guide public health decision-making. Here we describe a modeling approach for developing dynamic health policies that allow for adaptive decision-making as new data become available during an epidemic. In contrast to static health policies which have generally been selected by comparing the performance of a limited number of pre-determined sequences of interventions within simulation or mathematical models, dynamic health policies produce “real-time” recommendations for the choice of the best current intervention based on the observable state of the epidemic. Using cumulative real-time data for disease spread coupled with current information about resource availability, these policies provide recommendations for interventions that optimally utilize available resources to preserve the overall health of the population. We illustrate the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where we assume that two types of intervention may be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned “on” or “off” repeatedly during the course of epidemic. In this example, the optimal dynamic health policy maximizes the overall population's health during the epidemic by specifying at any point of time, based on observable conditions, (1) the number of individuals to vaccinate if vaccines are available, and (2) whether the transmission-reducing intervention should be either employed or removed

The Origin and Initial Rise of Pelagic Cephalopods in the Ordovician

BACKGROUND: During the Ordovician the global diversity increased dramatically at family, genus and species levels. Partially the diversification is explained by an increased nutrient, and phytoplankton availability in the open water. Cephalopods are among the top predators of today's open oceans. Their Ordovician occurrences, diversity evolution and abundance pattern potentially provides information on the evolution of the pelagic food chain. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We reconstructed the cephalopod departure from originally exclusively neritic habitats into the pelagic zone by the compilation of occurrence data in offshore paleoenvironments from the Paleobiology Database, and from own data, by evidence of the functional morphology, and the taphonomy of selected cephalopod faunas. The occurrence data show, that cephalopod associations in offshore depositional settings and black shales are characterized by a specific composition, often dominated by orthocerids and lituitids. The siphuncle and conch form of these cephalopods indicate a dominant lifestyle as pelagic, vertical migrants. The frequency distribution of conch sizes and the pattern of epibionts indicate an autochthonous origin of the majority of orthocerid and lituitid shells. The consistent concentration of these cephalopods in deep subtidal sediments, starting from the middle Tremadocian indicates the occupation of the pelagic zone early in the Early Ordovician and a subsequent diversification which peaked during the Darriwilian. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The exploitation of the pelagic realm started synchronously in several independent invertebrate clades during the latest Cambrian to Middle Ordovician. The initial rise and diversification of pelagic cephalopods during the Early and Middle Ordovician indicates the establishment of a pelagic food chain sustainable enough for the development of a diverse fauna of large predators. The earliest pelagic cephalopods were slowly swimming vertical migrants. The appearance and early diversification of pelagic cephalopods is interpreted as a consequence of the increased food availability in the open water since the latest Cambrian

Multi-agent modeling of the South Korean avian influenza epidemic

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI) outbreaks have been reported over the past decade. South Korea recently faced AI outbreaks whose economic impact was estimated to be 6.3 billion dollars, equivalent to nearly 50% of the profit generated by the poultry-related industries in 2008. In addition, AI is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. Several studies show that a stochastic simulation model can be used to plan an efficient containment strategy on an emerging influenza. Efficient control of AI outbreaks based on such simulation studies could be an important strategy in minimizing its adverse economic and public health impacts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We constructed a spatio-temporal multi-agent model of chickens and ducks in poultry farms in South Korea. The spatial domain, comprised of 76 (37.5 km × 37.5 km) unit squares, approximated the size and scale of South Korea. In this spatial domain, we introduced 3,039 poultry flocks (corresponding to 2,231 flocks of chickens and 808 flocks of ducks) whose spatial distribution was proportional to the number of birds in each province. The model parameterizes the properties and dynamic behaviors of birds in poultry farms and quarantine plans and included infection probability, incubation period, interactions among birds, and quarantine region.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We conducted sensitivity analysis for the different parameters in the model. Our study shows that the quarantine plan with well-chosen values of parameters is critical for minimize loss of poultry flocks in an AI outbreak. Specifically, the aggressive culling plan of infected poultry farms over 18.75 km radius range is unlikely to be effective, resulting in higher fractions of unnecessarily culled poultry flocks and the weak culling plan is also unlikely to be effective, resulting in higher fractions of infected poultry flocks.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results show that a prepared response with targeted quarantine protocols would have a high probability of containing the disease. The containment plan with an aggressive culling plan is not necessarily efficient, causing a higher fraction of unnecessarily culled poultry farms. Instead, it is necessary to balance culling with other important factors involved in AI spreading. Better estimations for the containment of AI spreading with this model offer the potential to reduce the loss of poultry and minimize economic impact on the poultry industry.</p

Interspecies interactions and potential Influenza A virus risk in small swine farms in Peru

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The recent avian influenza epidemic in Asia and the H1N1 pandemic demonstrated that influenza A viruses pose a threat to global public health. The animal origins of the viruses confirmed the potential for interspecies transmission. Swine are hypothesized to be prime "mixing vessels" due to the dual receptivity of their trachea to human and avian strains. Additionally, avian and human influenza viruses have previously been isolated in swine. Therefore, understanding interspecies contact on smallholder swine farms and its potential role in the transmission of pathogens such as influenza virus is very important.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This qualitative study aimed to determine swine-associated interspecies contacts in two coastal areas of Peru. Direct observations were conducted at both small-scale confined and low-investment swine farms (n = 36) and in open areas where swine freely range during the day (n = 4). Interviews were also conducted with key stakeholders in swine farming.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In both locations, the intermingling of swine and domestic birds was common. An unexpected contact with avian species was that swine were fed poultry mortality in 6/20 of the farms in Chancay. Human-swine contacts were common, with a higher frequency on the confined farms. Mixed farming of swine with chickens or ducks was observed in 36% of all farms. Human-avian interactions were less frequent overall. Use of adequate biosecurity and hygiene practices by farmers was suboptimal at both locations.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Close human-animal interaction, frequent interspecies contacts and suboptimal biosecurity and hygiene practices pose significant risks of interspecies influenza virus transmission. Farmers in small-scale swine production systems constitute a high-risk population and need to be recognized as key in preventing interspecies pathogen transfer. A two-pronged prevention approach, which offers educational activities for swine farmers about sound hygiene and biosecurity practices and guidelines and education for poultry farmers about alternative approaches for processing poultry mortality, is recommended. Virological and serological surveillance for influenza viruses will also be critical for these human and animal populations.</p

An optimal control theory approach to non-pharmaceutical interventions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) are the first line of defense against pandemic influenza. These interventions dampen virus spread by reducing contact between infected and susceptible persons. Because they curtail essential societal activities, they must be applied judiciously. Optimal control theory is an approach for modeling and balancing competing objectives such as epidemic spread and NPI cost.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We apply optimal control on an epidemiologic compartmental model to develop triggers for NPI implementation. The objective is to minimize expected person-days lost from influenza related deaths and NPI implementations for the model. We perform a multivariate sensitivity analysis based on Latin Hypercube Sampling to study the effects of input parameters on the optimal control policy. Additional studies investigated the effects of departures from the modeling assumptions, including exponential terminal time and linear NPI implementation cost.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An optimal policy is derived for the control model using a linear NPI implementation cost. Linear cost leads to a "bang-bang" policy in which NPIs are applied at maximum strength when certain state criteria are met. Multivariate sensitivity analyses are presented which indicate that NPI cost, death rate, and recovery rate are influential in determining the policy structure. Further death rate, basic reproductive number and recovery rate are the most influential in determining the expected cumulative death. When applying the NPI policy, the cumulative deaths under exponential and gamma terminal times are close, which implies that the outcome of applying the "bang-bang" policy is insensitive to the exponential assumption. Quadratic cost leads to a multi-level policy in which NPIs are applied at varying strength levels, again based on certain state criteria. Results indicate that linear cost leads to more costly implementation resulting in fewer deaths.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The application of optimal control theory can provide valuable insight to developing effective control strategies for pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of establishing a sensitive and timely surveillance system for pandemic preparedness.</p

Cold-Adapted Influenza and Recombinant Adenovirus Vaccines Induce Cross-Protective Immunity against pH1N1 Challenge in Mice

The rapid spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza virus (pH1N1) highlighted problems associated with relying on strain-matched vaccines. A lengthy process of strain identification, manufacture, and testing is required for current strain-matched vaccines and delays vaccine availability. Vaccines inducing immunity to conserved viral proteins could be manufactured and tested in advance and provide cross-protection against novel influenza viruses until strain-matched vaccines became available. Here we test two prototype vaccines for cross-protection against the recent pandemic virus.BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice were intranasally immunized with a single dose of cold-adapted (ca) influenza viruses from 1977 or recombinant adenoviruses (rAd) expressing 1934 nucleoprotein (NP) and consensus matrix 2 (M2) (NP+M2-rAd). Antibodies against the M2 ectodomain (M2e) were seen in NP+M2-rAd immunized BALB/c but not C57BL/6 mice, and cross-reacted with pH1N1 M2e. The ca-immunized mice did not develop antibodies against M2e. Despite sequence differences between vaccine and challenge virus NP and M2e epitopes, extensive cross-reactivity of lung T cells with pH1N1 peptides was detected following immunization. Both ca and NP+M2-rAd immunization protected BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice against challenge with a mouse-adapted pH1N1 virus.Cross-protective vaccines such as NP+M2-rAd and ca virus are effective against pH1N1 challenge within 3 weeks of immunization. Protection was not dependent on recognition of the highly variable external viral proteins and could be achieved with a single vaccine dose. The rAd vaccine was superior to the ca vaccine by certain measures, justifying continued investigation of this experimental vaccine even though ca vaccine is already available. This study highlights the potential for cross-protective vaccines as a public health option early in an influenza pandemic

Host Phylogeny Determines Viral Persistence and Replication in Novel Hosts

Pathogens switching to new hosts can result in the emergence of new infectious diseases, and determining which species are likely to be sources of such host shifts is essential to understanding disease threats to both humans and wildlife. However, the factors that determine whether a pathogen can infect a novel host are poorly understood. We have examined the ability of three host-specific RNA-viruses (Drosophila sigma viruses from the family Rhabdoviridae) to persist and replicate in 51 different species of Drosophilidae. Using a novel analytical approach we found that the host phylogeny could explain most of the variation in viral replication and persistence between different host species. This effect is partly driven by viruses reaching a higher titre in those novel hosts most closely related to the original host. However, there is also a strong effect of host phylogeny that is independent of the distance from the original host, with viral titres being similar in groups of related hosts. Most of this effect could be explained by variation in general susceptibility to all three sigma viruses, as there is a strong phylogenetic correlation in the titres of the three viruses. These results suggest that the source of new emerging diseases may often be predictable from the host phylogeny, but that the effect may be more complex than simply causing most host shifts to occur between closely related hosts