Broad external validation of a multivariable risk prediction model for gastrointestinal malignancy in iron deficiency anaemia.

BACKGROUND: Using two large datasets from Dorset, we previously reported an internally validated multivariable risk model for predicting the risk of GI malignancy in IDA-the IDIOM score. The aim of this retrospective observational study was to validate the IDIOM model using two independent external datasets. METHODS: The external validation datasets were collected, in a secondary care setting, by different investigators from cohorts in Oxford and Sheffield derived under different circumstances, comprising 1117 and 474 patients with confirmed IDA respectively. The data were anonymised prior to analysis. The predictive performance of the original model was evaluated by estimating measures of calibration, discrimination and clinical utility using the validation datasets. RESULTS: The discrimination of the original model using the external validation data was 70% (95% CI 65, 75) for the Oxford dataset and 70% (95% CI 61, 79) for the Sheffield dataset. The analysis of mean, weak, flexible and across the risk groups' calibration showed no tendency for under or over-estimated risks in the combined validation data. Decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical value of the IDIOM model with a net benefit that is higher than 'investigate all' and 'investigate no-one' strategies up to a threshold of 18% in the combined validation data, using a risk cut-off of around 1.2% to categorise patients into the very low risk group showed that none of the patients stratified in this risk group proved to have GI cancer on investigation in the validation datasets. CONCLUSION: This external validation exercise has shown promising results for the IDIOM model in predicting the risk of underlying GI malignancy in independent IDA datasets collected in different clinical settings

Broad external validation of a multivariable risk prediction model for gastrointestinal malignancy in iron deficiency anaemia.

BACKGROUND: Using two large datasets from Dorset, we previously reported an internally validated multivariable risk model for predicting the risk of GI malignancy in IDA-the IDIOM score. The aim of this retrospective observational study was to validate the IDIOM model using two independent external datasets. METHODS: The external validation datasets were collected, in a secondary care setting, by different investigators from cohorts in Oxford and Sheffield derived under different circumstances, comprising 1117 and 474 patients with confirmed IDA respectively. The data were anonymised prior to analysis. The predictive performance of the original model was evaluated by estimating measures of calibration, discrimination and clinical utility using the validation datasets. RESULTS: The discrimination of the original model using the external validation data was 70% (95% CI 65, 75) for the Oxford dataset and 70% (95% CI 61, 79) for the Sheffield dataset. The analysis of mean, weak, flexible and across the risk groups' calibration showed no tendency for under or over-estimated risks in the combined validation data. Decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical value of the IDIOM model with a net benefit that is higher than 'investigate all' and 'investigate no-one' strategies up to a threshold of 18% in the combined validation data, using a risk cut-off of around 1.2% to categorise patients into the very low risk group showed that none of the patients stratified in this risk group proved to have GI cancer on investigation in the validation datasets. CONCLUSION: This external validation exercise has shown promising results for the IDIOM model in predicting the risk of underlying GI malignancy in independent IDA datasets collected in different clinical settings

SARS-CoV-2 Infections Among Patients With Liver Disease and Liver Transplantation Who Received COVID-19 Vaccination.

Many safe and effective severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccinations dramatically reduce risks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) complications and deaths. We aimed to describe cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection among patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) and liver transplant (LT) recipients with at least one prior COVID-19 vaccine dose. The SECURE-Liver and COVID-Hep international reporting registries were used to identify laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in CLD and LT patients who received a COVID-19 vaccination. Of the 342 cases of lab-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in the era after vaccine licensing, 40 patients (21 with CLD and 19 with LT) had at least one prior COVID-19 vaccination, including 12 who were fully vaccinated (≥2 weeks after second dose). Of the 21 patients with CLD (90% with cirrhosis), 7 (33%) were hospitalized, 1 (5%) was admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), and 0 died. In the LT cohort (n = 19), there were 6 hospitalizations (32%), including 3 (16%) resulting in mechanical ventilation and 2 (11%) resulting in death. All three cases of severe COVID-19 occurred in patients who had a single vaccine dose within the last 1-2 weeks. In contemporary patients with CLD, rates of symptomatic infection, hospitalization, ICU admission, invasive ventilation, and death were numerically higher in unvaccinated individuals. Conclusion: This case series demonstrates the potential for COVID-19 infections among patients with CLD and LT recipients who had received the COVID-19 vaccination. Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 appears to result in favorable outcomes as attested by the absence of mechanical ventilation, ICU, or death among fully vaccinated patients

The platelet receptor CLEC-2 blocks neutrophil mediated hepatic recovery in acetaminophen induced acute liver failure

Acetaminophen (APAP) is the main cause of acute liver failure in the West. Specific efficacious therapies for acute liver failure (ALF) are limited and time-dependent. The mechanisms that drive irreversible acute liver failure remain poorly characterized. Here we report that the recently discovered platelet receptor CLEC-2 (C-type lectin-like receptor) perpetuates and worsens liver damage after toxic liver injury. Our data demonstrate that blocking platelet CLEC-2 signalling enhances liver recovery from acute toxic liver injuries (APAP and carbon tetrachloride) by increasing tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) production which then enhances reparative hepatic neutrophil recruitment. We provide data from humans and mice demonstrating that platelet CLEC-2 influences the hepatic sterile inflammatory response and that this can be manipulated for therapeutic benefit in acute liver injury. Since CLEC-2 mediated platelet activation is independent of major haemostatic pathways, blocking this pathway represents a coagulopathy-sparing, specific and novel therapy in acute liver failure

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Unmet clinical need in autoimmune liver diseases

Despite recent advances in understanding and treatment, there remain significant areas of unmet clinical need in each of the autoimmune liver diseases (AILDs). The evolving research landscape and emerging large patient cohorts are creating unique opportunities to translate science into new therapies and care pathways, with the potential to significantly improve the lives of AILD patients. However, the areas of unmet need represent real challenges, which need to be addressed, if this vision is to be realised. This review describes the areas of unmet need in AILD in adults relating to diagnostic and prognostic assessment, primary therapy, symptom management, trial design and delivery, and structured care delivery, with the aim of focusing future research prioritisatio

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in a mixed-aetiology UK cohort with cirrhosis:does α-fetoprotein still have a role?

Mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in people with cirrhosis is increasing whereas mortality from other causes is declining. Surveillance appears to reduce mortality but the optimal strategy is uncertain. Current guidelines differ by recommending ultrasonography alone or with α-fetoprotein (αFP). Records in three UK hospitals were analysed from 2006 to 2011. Of 111 HCC cases identified, 24 (47.1%) of those eligible were under surveillance: 21 (87.5%) were under combined ultrasonography–αFP, 2 (8.3%) ultrasonography-only and 1 (4.2%) αFP-only surveillance. αFP was elevated in 19 (86.4%), and αFP alone triggered a confirmatory study in 11 (9.9%) overall and 7 (29.1%) under surveillance. Surveillance, but not αFP, correlated with smaller tumours. Survival did not differ significantly between groups. Given that αFP use is associated with identifying smaller HCCs and that several diagnoses would have been delayed without αFP in this real-life cohort, these data support ongoing αFP use. However, further work is necessary with regard to whether αFP translates into improved clinical outcome and overall cost effects. In our area, stopping αFP use would also represent a significant change in practice