The rationality and reliability of expectations reported by British households: micro evidence from the British household panel survey

This paper assesses the accuracy of individuals' expectations of their financial circumstances, as reported in the British Household Panel Survey, as predictors of outcomes and identifies what factors influence their reliability. As the data are qualitative bivariate ordered probit models, appropriately identified, are estimated to draw out the differential effect of information on expectations and realisations. Rationality is then tested and we seek to explain deviations of realisations from expectations at a micro-economic level, possibly with reference to macroeconomic shocks. A bivariate regime-switching ordered probit model, distinguishing between states of rationality and irrationality, is then estimated to identify whether individual characteristics affect the probability of an individual using some alternative model to rationality to form their expectations. --household behaviour,expectation formation

Efficient Aggregation of Panel Qualitative Survey Data

Qualitative business survey data are used widely to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional indicators exploit only aggregate survey information, namely the proportions of respondents who report “up” and “down”. This paper examines disaggregate or firm-level survey responses. It considers how the responses of the individual firms should be quantified and combined if the aim is to produce an early indication of official output data. Having linked firms’ categorical responses to official data using ordered discrete choice models, the paper proposes a statistically efficient means of combining the disparate estimates of aggregate output growth which can be constructed from the responses of individual firms. An application to firm-level survey data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that the proposed indicator can provide early estimates of output growth more accurately than traditional indicators.Survey Data; Indicators; Quantification; Forecasting; Forecast Combination

Monthly GDP Estimates for Inter-War Britain

We derive monthly and quarterly series of UK GDP for the inter-war period from a set of monthly indicators that were constructed by The Economist at the time. The monthly information is complemented with data for quarterly industrial production, allowing us to employ mixed-frequency methods to produce monthly estimates of GDP and of industrial production. We proceed to illustrate how the new data compare with existing high frequency data and how they can be used to contribute to our understanding of the economic history of the UK in the inter-war period and to draw comparisons between recession profiles in the inter-war and the post-war period

Microvascular resistance predicts myocardial salvage and infarct characteristics in ST-elevation myocardial infarction

<b>Background:</b> The pathophysiology of myocardial injury and repair in patients with ST‐elevation myocardial infarction is incompletely understood. We investigated the relationships among culprit artery microvascular resistance, myocardial salvage, and ventricular function.<p></p> <b>Methods and Results:</b> The index of microvascular resistance (IMR) was measured by means of a pressure‐ and temperature‐sensitive coronary guidewire in 108 patients with ST‐elevation myocardial infarction (83% male) at the end of primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Paired cardiac MRI (cardiac magnetic resonance) scans were performed early (2 days; n=108) and late (3 months; n=96) after myocardial infarction. T2‐weighted‐ and late gadolinium–enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance delineated the ischemic area at risk and infarct size, respectively. Myocardial salvage was calculated by subtracting infarct size from area at risk. Univariable and multivariable models were constructed to determine the impact of IMR on cardiac magnetic resonance–derived surrogate outcomes. The median (interquartile range) IMR was 28 (17–42) mm Hg/s. The median (interquartile range) area at risk was 32% (24%–41%) of left ventricular mass, and the myocardial salvage index was 21% (11%–43%). IMR was a significant multivariable predictor of early myocardial salvage, with a multiplicative effect of 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.82 to 0.92) per 20% increase in IMR; P<0.001. In patients with anterior myocardial infarction, IMR was a multivariable predictor of early and late myocardial salvage, with multiplicative effects of 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.90; P<0.001) and 0.92 (95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.96; P<0.001), respectively. IMR also predicted the presence and extent of microvascular obstruction and myocardial hemorrhage.<p></p> <b>Conclusion:</b> Microvascular resistance measured during primary percutaneous coronary intervention significantly predicts myocardial salvage, infarct characteristics, and left ventricular ejection fraction in patients with ST‐elevation myocardial infarction.<p></p&gt

Radiocephalic and brachiocephalic arteriovenous fistula outcomes in the elderly

BackgroundA recent meta-analysis has suggested that patients aged >65 have worse outcomes with radiocephalic arteriovenous fistulas (RCAVFs) compared with brachiocephalic arteriovenous fistulas (BCAVFs). We hypothesized that outcomes in patients aged ≥80—a rapidly expanding cohort within this elderly group—might be skewing the results, and that age >65 may not be a contraindication to RCAVF formation. This study examined the effect of age group (<65, 65 to 79, ≥80) on functional outcomes (use; primary and secondary functional patency) in RCVAFs and BCAVFs.MethodsWe identified the outcomes of all patients undergoing a first surgical access procedure for a RCAVF or BCVAF between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2005. We examined the effect of age and other factors including sex, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, late referral (<3 months before dialysis), dialysis before surgical access, preoperative duplex ultrasound imaging, and ethnicity on non-AVF use and primary and secondary functional AVF patency. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used.ResultsFrom a total of 658 patients, 361 had a RCAVF, and 297 had a BCAVF. Their median age was 68.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 54.4 to 76.5 years), and 288 (43.8%) were aged <65 years, 274 (41.6%) were 65 to 79, and 96 (14.6%) were ≥80. Age did not influence the site of the first surgical access (P = .874). Only 85.7% of patients actually progressed to hemodialysis, and the RCAVF or BCAVF in 45.7% of those was never used for dialysis. Female sex (hazard ratio [HR], 2.24; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.387 to 3.643; P = .001) was the only factor associated with an increase risk of RCAVF nonuse, whereas diabetes (HR, 2.095; 95% CI, 1.261 to 3.482; P = .004) was the only factor associated with an increase risk of BCAVF nonuse. The respective primary patency rates at 1 and 2 years for RCAVFs were 46.0% and 27.1% for patients <65, 47.0% and 36.0% for those 65 to 79, and 45.7% and 38.1% for those ≥80. Only female sex (HR, 1.679; 95% CI, 1.261 to 2.236; P = .001) and prior hemodialysis (HR, 1.363; 95% CI, 1.0.29 to 1.804; P = .031) were associated with loss of patency of RCAVFs. The primary functional patency rates for BCAVFs at 1 and 2 years were 39.3% and 31.0% for those <65 years; 53.30% and 37.5% for those 65 to 79, and 46.3% and 42.6% for those ≥80. No factors analyzed were associated with loss of primary functional patency of BCAVFs.ConclusionsAge did not affect usability, primary or secondary patency of either RCAVFs or BCAVFs. Although patient selection is important, even patients ≥80 years who are considered suitable for surgical placement of access should not be denied a RCAVF solely because of age