Leaving the Space - Opening the Gap? Electoral Effects of Parties' and Voters' Repositioning

Examining the German case in the wider Western European context for the period 1996-2017, the chapter investigates the role of supply and demand factors for vote switching in general and switching to right-wing populist parties in particular. Combining survey data from the CSES with party data from the Manifesto Project, the chapter shows that the growing success of right-wing populist parties, in Germany just as in other Western European countries, was a response to programmatic moves of mainstream center-left and center-right parties to the left. In general, voters’ movements between parties did not follow a symmetric pattern. Changes to parties further left came about as responses to increasing voter-party distances on the socio-economic dimension. In the more recent past, switches to parties further right and, in particular, right-wing populist parties like the German AfD became more frequent, and they were associated with increasing distances on the socio-cultural dimension

Do populist values or civic values drive support for referendums in Europe?

Representative democracy gives voters the right to influence who governs but its influence on policy making is only indirect. Free and fair referendums give voters the right to decide a policy directly. Elected representatives usually oppose referendums as redundant at best and as undermining their authority at worst. Democratic theorists tend to take electing representatives as normal and as normatively superior. The nominal association of popular decision making and populism has strengthened this negative view. Public opinion surveys show substantial support for holding referendums on important issues. Two major theories offer contrasting explanations for popular support for referendums; they reflect populist values or a commitment to the civic value of participation. This innovative paper tests an integrated model of both theories by the empirical analysis of a 17-country European survey. There is substantial support for all three civic hypotheses: referendum endorsement is positively influenced by attitudes towards participation, democratic ideals and whether elected representatives are perceived as responsive. By contrast, there is no support for populist hypotheses that the socioeconomically weak and excluded favour referendums and minimal support for the effect of extreme ideologies. The conclusion shows that most criticisms of referendums also apply to policy making by elected representatives. While referendums have limits on their use, there is a democratic argument for holding such ballots on major issues to see whether or not a majority of voters endorse the choice of their nominal representatives

Support for insider parties: The role of political trust in a longitudinal-comparative perspective

European democracies have experienced drastic changes in electoral competition. Voter support for insider parties that have traditionally governed has declined while support for radical and populist parties has increased. Simultaneously, citizens’ declining political trust has become a concern, as confidence in political institutions and actors is low across numerous countries. Interestingly, the linkage between political trust and support for insider parties has not been empirically established but deduced from the fact that outsider parties are often supported by dissatisfied citizens. We address this gap adopting both an institutional- and an actor-centered approach by investigating whether trust in parliaments and in parties is associated with the electoral performance of insider parties on the aggregate level. Combining different data sources in a novel way, we apply time-series cross-section models to a dataset containing 30 countries and 137 elections from 1998 to 2018. Our results show that when political trust is low, particularly institutional trust, insider parties receive less electoral support. Hence, we provide empirical evidence that decreasing levels of political trust are the downfall of insider parties, thereby opening a window of opportunity for challenging outsider parties

C-Virus und E-Parlament - In der Krise muss Politik digital ergänzt werden

Es braucht intelligente Digitalisierung, damit eine Demokratie in der Pandemie handlungsfähig bleiben kann

Die Alternative für Deutschland: Eine gefährliche Kraft im gesellschaftlichen Wandel

Die AfD hat es binnen kurzer Zeit geschafft, in alle deutsche Landesparlamente einzuziehen sowie als Bundestags-Novizin die größte Oppositionsfraktion zu stellen. Gleichwohl bleibt sie mit ihren inneren Dynamiken, den Wandlungs- und Transformationsprozessen sowie der heterogenen Koalition von bewegungs- und parlamentsorientierten Kräften ein rätselhaftes Phänomen. Vor diesem Hintergrund beleuchtet der Beitrag die Entwicklung der Partei, ihr programmatisches und parlamentarisches Profil sowie die Abgrenzung und Bezugnahme auf rechtsextreme Akteur_innen

Zur Bedeutung von "Amtsblatt- und Handbuchdaten" für die empirisch-quantifizierende Forschung

This article intends to draw the attention to two data bases which are available to quantitative historical social research. Based on precious research at the Freie Universität Berlin the possibilities for the analysis of Amtsblatt- and Handbuchdaten (official gazettes and directories) are shown. The results of the analyses of the data in the "Amtsblatt" of the SPD- and KPD/SED-candidates and representatives for the elections in Berlin in 1929, 1933, and 1946 are presented in an illustrative way. Furthermore, the prospects of analysing the same data using a network analytical approach are briefly described

Die AfD in den Landtagen: Bipolarität als Struktur und Strategie - zwischen Parlaments- und "Bewegungs"-Orientierung

Die Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) ist, bevor sie 2017 in den Bundestag eingezogen ist, seit 2014 bereits in 13 Landtagen aktiv. In dieser Studie werden das Profil, die Präsenz der AfD-Fraktionen sowie der Umgang der anderen Parteien mit dem Parlamentsneuling in zehn Landtagen (August 2014 bis September 2016) untersucht. Empirische Basis sind neben veröffentlichten Materialien vor allem Experteninterviews mit verantwortlichen Personen aus den AfD- und anderen Fraktionen. Die AfD-Fraktionen der Landtage lassen sich zwei divergenten Richtungen zuordnen: einerseits Parlaments- und andererseits einer "Bewegungs"-orientierten Richtung. Ob strategisch so angelegt oder nicht - derzeit bestimmt diese Bipolarität sowohl den elektoralen Erfolg der AfD wie auch ihre Präsenz in den Parlamenten. Eine parlamentarische Professionalisierung steckt noch in den Anfängen; das Parlamentsplenum ist im Gegensatz zur Arbeitsebene der Parlamente, also den Ausschüssen, das Spielbein der AfD und dient als Plattform für die stark über soziale Medien verlaufende Präsentation für die Öffentlichkeit.Before making it into the Bundestag in 2017, the party "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) had been present in 13 state parliaments. This study focuses on the AfD parliamentary groups profiles, on AfD's parliamentary performances and the impact they have on their respective parliaments as well as on how the representatives of the other factions in parliament deal with AfD's presence. These questions are investigated on the basis of official and otherwise published materials, information on parliamentary activities, and, in particular, expert interviews with representatives of the AfD and of other parties in parliament. Two divergent orientations can be found among the state parliament AfD factions: On the one hand parliament-centered, on the other "movement" oriented. Whether strategically designed or not - currently this bipolarity ensures both the electoral success and the parliamentary presence of the AfD. Political professionalization is very much at an early stage. Instead of emphasizing the committee work, the AfD relies heavily on the parliamentary plenum as a platform for its public relations primarily via social media