The Economic Impact of Olympic Games: Evidence from Stock Markets

By means of an event study of stock market reactions to the announcement of the Olympic Games host cities, we find a significant and positive announcement effect of hosting the Summer Games, with a cumulative abnormal return of about 2% within a few days. We do not find any significant results for the Winter Games. Neither do we detect a significant impact when bidders lose the competition. Our results differ from those of a similar study by Mirman and Sharma (2008), who find that the Winter Games are subject to a significantly negative announcement impact, while the Summer Games are not. Our results, however, rely on a larger sample of 15 Olympic events and are obtained by assessing the abnormal returns after the announcement against a ?business?as?usual" situation (instead of testing the difference between winner group and loser group). Our findings are in line with economic intuition, since the Summer Games represent a larger event and are thus more likely to have a significant impact. We also find that among the winners, small economies tend to have greater cumulative abnormal returns than their large peers. --Olympic Games,economic impact,event study,stock markets

異なる標高における、紫外線BによるDNAダメージと耐性機構のエコタイプ間、種間、そして機能群間の変異

要約のみTohoku University彦坂幸毅課

The Erosion of Union Membership in Germany: Determinants, Densities, Decompositions

Union density in Germany has declined remarkably during the last two decades. We estimate socio-economic and workplace-related determinants of union membership in East and West Germany using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel by means of Chamberlain-Mundlack correlated random effects probit models. Drawing on the estimates, we project net union densities (NUD) and analyze the differences between East and West Germany as well as the corresponding changes in NUD over time. Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions show that changes in the composition of the work force have only played a minor role for the deunionization trends in East and West Germany. In East-West comparison, differences in the characteristics of the work force reflect a lower quality of membership matches in East Germany right after German unification. --Union membership,union density,correlated random effects probit model,decomposition analysis,East Germany,West Germany

The Economic Impact of Olympic Games : Evidence from Stock Markets

By means of an event study of stock market reactions to the announcement of the Olympic Games host cities, we find a significant and positive announcement effect of hosting the Summer Games, with a cumulative abnormal return of about 2% within a few days. We do not find any significant results for the Winter Games. Neither do we detect a significant impact when bidders lose the competition. Our results differ from those of a similar study by Mirman and Sharma (2008), who find that the Winter Games are subject to a significantly negative announcement impact, while the Summer Games are not. Our results, however, rely on a larger sample of 15 Olympic events and are obtained by assessing the abnormal returns after the announcement against a “business–as–usual" situation (instead of testing the difference between winner group and loser group). Our findings are in line with economic intuition, since the Summer Games represent a larger event and are thus more likely to have a significant impact. We also find that among the winners, small economies tend to have greater cumulative abnormal returns than their large peers

The Erosion of Union Membership in Germany: Determinants, Densities, Decompositions

Union density in Germany has declined remarkably during the last two decades. We estimate socio-economic and workplace-related determinants of union membership in East and West Germany using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel by means of Chamberlain-Mundlack correlated random effects probit models. Drawing on the estimates, we project net union densities (NUD) and analyze the differences between East and West Germany as well as the corresponding changes in NUD over time. Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions show that changes in the composition of the work force have only played a minor role for the deunionization trends in East and West Germany. In East-West comparison, differences in the characteristics of the work force reflect a lower quality of membership matches in East Germany right after German unification

The Influence of Anthropomorphic Chatbot Design on Consumer Tolerance of Service Failures: The Mediating Roles of Attachment and Cognitive Dissonance

Problem statement: The widespread use of chatbots in hospitality and tourism leads to inevitable service failures. Although research has investigated the influence of chatbots` anthropomorphic cues, comprehending how distinct anthropomorphic cues influence user behavior in service failure is still limited. Methodology: To explore how the anthropomorphic design of chatbots affect user`s tolerance for service failure, this research conducts a 2 (anthropomorphic appearance: 3D vs. 2D) x 2 (language style: informal vs. formal) x 2 (interdependent self-construal: high vs. low) between-subject online experiment. Result: Results show that the congruent anthropomorphic cues of chatbots can significantly improve consumers \u27 tolerance, where attachment mediates this process positively. Additionally, the interdependent self-construal level plays a positive moderating role in this process. Implications: This study contributes theoretically by explicating anthropomorphism in attachment and cognitive dissonance theory and extending the understanding of self-construal theory. Moreover, the study provides recommendations for managers to design effective anthropopathic chatbots

Investor beliefs and forecast evaluation

I introduce a novel proxy of investor sentiment and differences of opinion among trend-chasing investors to forecast skewness in daily aggregate stock market returns. The new proxy is an easy-to-construct, real-time measure available at different frequencies for more than a century. Empirically I find that negative skewness is most pronounced when investors have experienced high sentiment. The role of differences of opinion depends on the states of average investor sentiment: it positively forecasts market skewness in an optimistic state, but negatively forecasts it in a pessimistic state. Conceptually, I provide an explanation for the role of differences of opinion by augmenting the theory of Abreu and Brunnermeier (2003) with heterogeneous beliefs among trend-chasing investors. I argue that convergence of opinion in an optimistic state indicates that the price run-up is unlikely to be sustained since fewer investors can remain net buyers in the future. Therefore rational arbitrageurs coordinate their attack on the bubble, leading to a market crash. Vice versa, the convergence of opinion in a pessimistic state promotes coordinated purchases among rational arbitrageurs, leading to a strong recovery

Bank funding constraints and stock liquidity

This paper examines the relationship between bank marginal funding constraints and stock liquidity. Using bank credit default swap (CDS) spreads we show that increased funding constraints weaken bank stock liquidity (as measured by liquidity tightness, depth, and resilience). This effect strengthens during crises periods. Deteriorating bank stock liquidity is in turn priced into excess stock returns. In addition, we find that during liquidity crises, monetary expansion can break the relationship between funding costs and stock liquidity. Heightened monetary policy uncertainty, however, strengthens this relation