Climate Change Shocks Exposure Index to Drought on the Livelihoods of the Smallholder Farmers in Kinakomba Ward, Tana River County, Kenya

Being susceptible to climate change means being unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change especially droughts and a likelihood of experiencing harm due to its occurrence. The study sought to evaluate the effects of exposure to Climate related shocks on the livelihoods of the smallholder farmers with the intent of formulating appropriate policies to enable them cope with its impacts. A descriptive survey research design was used. Stratified random sampling was employed to select 390 households. Two methods were used to analyse exposure. Firstly the fuzzy logic in assessing susceptibility to drought involving a selection of input variables, Fuzzification, inference modelling and defuzzification and secondly DrinC Model software. The results revealed that the final value of the negative consequences of drought was 0.35.The study also established a single index as 0.45 for exposure for the entire study period of 35 years for Kinakomba Ward .The study showed that exposure was statistically significant at (0.000066). The study further revealed that the periods between occurrence of extreme droughts were reducing and at the same time that droughts were moving from being severe to being extreme within shorter periods of time leaving smallholder farmers who depend on rain fed agriculture with high exposures and risks as well as experiencing longer hunger periods with severe implications on their food and nutritional security for the vast populations in the study area. The Study concluded that the exposure to drought of the smallholder farmers in Kinakomba Ward is significantly related to their farming livelihood systems. This study recommends that the County Government in partnership with the National Government and other stakeholders develop a comprehensive disaster risk management framework to address the drought hazards and undertake mitigation and adaptation measures by equipping the smallholder farmers with knowledge on how to cope with the cyclic and vicious droughts’ impacts that have led to serious irreversible harm to humans and livestock in the area. Keywords: Exposure, Drought, Mitigation, Adaptation, Food security DOI: 10.7176/FSQM/94-07 Publication date: February 29th 202

The Structure-Conduct-Performance of Nearshore Marine Fisheries in Kenya: The Case of Parrotfish and Lobster Fisheries

The parrotfish and lobster fisheries play important ecological functions. Besides the ecological functions, the fisheries are important market assets exploited for food and income and cater for different markets. Because of the differences in the value of the two fisheries, competitive strategies employed by fishers and traders and the implications of these on resources and livelihoods are likely to be different. In spite of the ecological and economic importance of these fisheries, information regarding competitive strategies and how these influence livelihoods and resources have not been empirically examined among these fisheries in Kenya. Such strategies are likely to have different implications on the resources as well as livelihood/wellbeing of actors.The study employs the structure-conduct-performance framework to understand these dynamics by studying the two fishery types representing both low and high value fisheries that have different market characteristics. The study analyzes the structure, competitive strategies and performance of both fisheries at five representative sites along the Kenyan coast. A comparison of the two fisheries shows differences in terms of actor characteristics, volumes and value, as well performance/profitability of individual actors

Climate Change Shocks Sensitivity Index of Smallholder Farmers Engaged in Farming and Non-Farming Activities in Kinakomba Ward, Tana River County, Kenya

Understanding the future of smallholder farmers of Kinakomba Ward in Tana River is critical to the design and development of policies. One of the major concerns is establishing how sensitive these farmers are to climate change shocks. This study sought to determine sensitivity index of smallholder farmers that rely on rainfed agriculture and nonfarming activities to climate change related shocks with the intent of formulating appropriate programmes and policies. A descriptive survey research design was used. Stratified random sampling was employed to select 390 households. The qualitative and quantitative data collected using questionnaires was analysed by use of metric of sensitivity and chi-square goodness of fit test. The study revealed that smallholder farmers who relied on farming activity alone had a sensitivity of 43.17% to climate change related shocks while those who rely on non-farming activities had a sensitivity of 36.40%. When the households engage in both farming and non-farming, the sensitivity will increase by 21.20% due to the interactions between the two activities. Although the sensitivity percentage for the farmers who engaged in the two activities is low, sensitivity was statistically significant (P=0.00038).  Further findings showed that the ratio of farming to nonfarming was 0.58 and those households dependent on farming and engaged in nonfarming was 0.45 and when they engage in both activities at the same time, they were more sensitive at 0.942. Despite the significance sensitivity to climate change related shocks, farming sector was ranked as more important (81.5%) than other livelihood activities. The study concluded that sensitivity of the smallholder farmers to climate change related shocks had a significant influence on their livelihoods. The County Government in partnership with stakeholders develops interventions of adaptation options and empowerment of farmers with skills in diversification of livelihoods options. Keywords: Climate change related shocks, Farming, Sensitivity index, Smallholder Farmers DOI: 10.7176/FSQM/93-06 Publication date: January 31st 202

The Adaptive Capacity Index of Smallholder Farmers to Climate Related Shocks in Kinakomba Ward, Tana River County, Kenya

According to IPCC (2014) Adaptive capacity is the ability of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, take advantage of opportunities and respond to consequences arising. In a climate change context it relates to inter-relationship of social, political, economic, technological and institutional factors operating at a variety of scales Vincent, Katharine (2007) some genetic while others exposure specific. This study analyzed the adaptive capacity to climate related shocks of 390 farming households in Kinakomba Ward. The objective was: To determine the adaptive capacity index of the smallholder farmers in Kinakomba Ward. The index included five indicators of human resources, physical resources, financial resources, information and livelihoods diversity (Eakin and Bojorquez-Tapia 2008). The researcher used two methods to analyse adaptive capacity: Firstly an interview with 390 farming households to gather data on farming and household characteristics and Natural resources availability and secondly a panel of 15 Key Informants provided ratings of indicators of adaptive capacity using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) the results indicated that Livelihoods Diversity had the highest adaptive capacity score at 0.3 while the lowest adaptive capacity for Criterion was information at 0.12. Meaning that Livelihoods diversity was 3 times more preferred than information. The panel of key informants gave this alternative the highest weight and so this was the single adaptive capacity for Kinakomba ward. The results further revealed that occupational multiplicity had the highest score at 0.21 the panel of the key informants gave this indicator a high rating thus making it have the highest adaptive capacity while the lowest was given to infrastructure at 0.03, meaning occupational multiplicity at 0.21was 6 times more preferred to infrastructure at 0.03. The study concluded that When the Number of livelihoods sources are many and when the number of members in the household are also having different sources of livelihoods, then that household has a high adaptive capacity. Consequently when all the members of the households are adults and each has a job then the adaptive capacity of that household is high while a high dependency ratio leads to low adaptive capacity. The study recommended that the County and National governments and stakeholders to employ measures to adapt to climate change and variability. Keywords; Analytic Hierarchy process(AHP), Adaptive Capacity, Key informants, Analytical Network Process (ANP) software, Super Decisions version 3.0 DOI: 10.7176/FSQM/95-07 Publication date:March 31st 202

Vulnerability of Smallholder Farmers to Climate Related Shocks in Kinakomba Ward, Tana River County, Kenya

According to IPCC, (2007) Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. It is a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (Marshall et al. 2010; Wongbusarakum and Loper 2011, Mucke 2012). The study sought to determine the vulnerability to climate related shocks among smallholder farmers in Kinakomba Ward. The main purpose of the study was to assess the extent to which, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity contributed to the vulnerability of the smallholder farmers on their livelihoods. The study was carried out in Kinakomba ward in Tana River County, Kenya. A descriptive survey research design was used. Stratified random sampling was employed to select 390 out of a population of 3,908 households. Data was collected using questionnaires and Focus Group Discussions. Descriptive statistics, metric of sensitivity, composite index was used to analyse sensitivity. Two methods were used to analyse exposure. Firstly the fuzzy logic in assessing susceptibility to drought involving a selection of input variables, Fuzzification, inference modelling and defuzzification and secondly DrinC Model software. The researcher used two methods to analyse adaptive capacity namely the interview with 390 farming households to gather data on farming and household characteristics and natural resources availability and secondly a panel of 15 Key Informants provided ratings of indicators of adaptive capacity using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). To understand the interaction of these variables this study Analysed a quantitative Vulnerability score by using an equation which  combined three contributing indices of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity each normalized to 0–1 Scale (Adger and Vincent, 2005;Allison et al. 2009), the vulnerability score was obtained by adding exposure to sensitivity and subtracting the adaptive capacity. The key results from the study showed that exposure (p=0.000066) and sensitivity (P=0.00038) had a significant effect on livelihoods. These factors were also found to have a negative influence on livelihoods in the area. Further statistical findings showed that as adaptive capacity increased vulnerability decreased while when sensitivity increased vulnerability increased at the same time. The study concluded that these two dimensions of vulnerability could be modified by policy and development. The study also concluded that exposure contributed more than sensitivity and adaptive capacity to the cumulative vulnerability. The study recommended that the County and National governments and stakeholders to employ measures to adapt to climate change and variability. This study also recommended that the Government in partnership with other stakeholders develop a comprehensive disaster risk management framework to address the drought hazards and undertake mitigation and adaptation measures by equipping the smallholder farmers with knowledge on how to cope with the cyclic and vicious droughts’ impacts that have led to serious irreversible harm to humans and livestock in the area. Also that the Government in partnership with stakeholders develops interventions of adaptation options and empowerment of farmers with skills in diversification of livelihoods options. Keywords: Vulnerability, Sensitivity, Exposure, Adaptive Capacity, Fuzzification, DrinC Model software, Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) DOI: 10.7176/FSQM/95-09 Publication date:March 31st 202

Factors Influencing the Adoption of Treated Wastewater Use Among Communities in Ruai, Nairobi County, Kenya

The Dandora Estate Sewage Treatment Works (DESTW) in Ruai, Nairobi County discharges approximately 80,000 m3/day of treated wastewater (TWW) into the Nairobi River without any planned option for use. There is also no policy guideline for use of TWW in Kenya. Yet, some people still use it directly or indirectly for their various livelihoods and in unsustainable ways (unplanned, unmanaged and unregulated). This could result in a number of risks, including public health, agronomic and environmental risks. This study investigated factors influencing the adoption of the TWW use among the communities in seven estates (Sewage/IDP, Gituamba, Kamunyonge, Katworo, Bondeni, Dan Bull and By-pass) that are close to the DESTW, despite the prevailing scenario. Cross-sectional survey design was adopted in the study where semi-structured questionnaires were used to collect data from 360 households who were selected using simple random sampling from the seven estates/strata. Raw data were analysed with the help of Statistical Package for Social Sciences [version 20] software for both descriptive statistics (percentages and frequencies) and inferential statistics (Odds Ratio, and Wald χ2) for the prediction of adoption of TWW (dependent variable) using the independent variables. A multivariate logistic regression model identified gender (Wald χ2 (1) = 5.31, p = .021), main occupation in general (Wald χ2 (7) = 21.06, p =.004), farming [Wald χ2 (1) =5.31, p =.021], dependency on wastewater (Wald χ2 (1) = 40.59, p ˂ .000) and knowledge of organization regulating use of TWW (Wald χ2 (2) = 6.76, p =.034) as statistically significant predictors of adoption of TWW use in Ruai. In the absence of a policy guideline for use of TWW in Kenya, the findings of the study provide requisite baseline data useful in formulating an appropriate policy and regulations for wastewater reuse schemes. Keywords: Adoption, Treated wastewater (TWW), livelihoods, Predictors, Logistic regression DOI: 10.7176/JEES/10-6-07 Publication date:June 30th 202

Current Status in Quality of Treated Wastewater for Potential Reuse Scheme in Ruai, Nairobi County, Kenya

The study examined the current status in quality of the treated wastewater (TWW) discharged at Dandora Estate Sewage Treatment Works (DESTW) in Ruai with a view to assessing its reuse potential and conformity to the national standards recommended for safe use. The DESTW discharges approximately 80,000m3/day of TWW through its three outlets into the adjacent Nairobi River without any planned use option. However, some people use it directly or indirectly for their livelihoods oblivious of its quality status, putting at risk their own health, public health and the environment. Understandably, with freshwater becoming increasingly scarce, thus limiting livelihood options, water planners and users are forced to reconsider other water resources such as wastewater which can be used both economically and effectively. Samples of TWW were collected from the three outlets (sampling sites) at DESTW, prepared and analysed for heavy metals [lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni) and iron (Fe)]; macronutrients [nitrogen (N) as nitrate, phosphorous (P) as phosphate and potassium (K)] and environmental characteristics [microbes; faecal coliforms (FC) and total coliforms (TC), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total solid (TS), pH and chlorides]. Raw data were analysed with the help of Statistical Package for Social Sciences [SPSS] software version 20 for both descriptive statistics (means and standard deviations) and inferential statistics (ANOVA’s F and post hoc procedures by Tukey and Games-Howell test where applicable & Kruskal-Wallis H test. All inferential statistical tests were conducted at a 0.05 level of significance. Results showed that the content of Cd, Cr, Fe, Mn, phosphate, TS, chlorides, and pH were lower than their safe limits for reuse but that of lead, BOD, COD, nitrates and TC exceeded the recommended threshold limits. Results of one-way ANOVA performed on the data suggested that the levels of all the measured parameters of the study except Fe, Pb, pH, BOD and FC varied significantly among the three sites. Overall, the results show that the TWW is not entirely safe for use in its current quality state. There is need for an improved optimal wastewater treatment configuration at DESTW aimed at rendering suitable effluent for reuse schemes in Ruai. Key Terms: treated wastewater, quality, water resource, livelihoods, reuse DOI: 10.7176/JEES/10-7-07 Publication date:July 31st 202

Testing for the influence of global trade on local fish prices and food security in an African coral reef fishery

This study evaluated the potential impact of global fish trade on local food prices and potential food security and associated adaptation by analyzing a locally-collected time series of disaggregated coral reef fish prices by types of fish that differed in their market chain linkages- ranging from local to international markets. Using stepwise regression and cointegration, we did not find evidence that export of marine products (octopus) led to higher prices of locally consumed low quality but high diversity fish eaten by the poorest fishers. Long-term relationships were found between the price of local staple (maize) and octopus catch per unit effort (CPUE/area) suggesting increased affordability of maize relative to the octopus export, arising from increasing global trade. The increases in CPUE with prices of maize and octopus indicate that fishers are adjusting effort within their day to get enough staples or make more profit from octopus. Consequently, low prices of staples can reduce fishing effort on low quality fish where as high prices of export products can increase effort on export items. There is, therefore, an opportunity to increase profits by allowing the resource to replenish during low price periods but may require coordination between fisheries management and market prices. Results indicate that improved management that increases fish supply can maintain high prices and that low prices of food staples, often a result of global trade, can reduce fishing pressure on the high diversity of coral reef fishes eaten by the poor.Keywords: Modeling and Economic Theory, Poor Data and Markets, Fisheries Economic

Income distribution and inequality among fishers and fish traders in two small-scale Kenyan coral reef fisheries

Since the mid-1960s fish production has become increasingly market-driven with actors downstream in the commodity chain increasingly determining the price of fish. Previously, it has been shown that fishers' incomes tend to be low in both developed and developing countries and that linking fisheries to global markets causes income inequalities. Research has also shown that although many factors affect the sustainability of any individual fishery, income inequality and the struggle for food security are significant contributors, particularly in developing countries. Despite awareness of the link between poverty and resource exploitation, the distribution of benefits derived from fish trade remains poorly understood. This study, carried out in five small-scale coral reef fishing communities along the Kenyan coast, sought to explore this link and in so doing found that both fishers and traders engaged in a more globally integrated fishery received higher incomes. There was no evidence that greater global market integration causes higher income inequalities within a fishery, an indication that linking local fisheries to global markets has potential positive income effects. We recommend disaggregated analyses in future studies of fishery income distribution in order to properly inform interventions within the context of specific fishery resource and respective market characteristics.Keywords: Markets and Trade, Fisheries Economics, Globalisation and Trad

A Quantitative Analysis of Co-Management Success Across the Indo- Pacific

Throughout the Indo-Pacific region, communities are increasingly empowered with the ability and responsibility of working with national governments to make decisions about their marine resources. In some instances, co-management arrangements have been successful at conserving marine resources by developing locally appropriate rules to limit overexploitation. These examples have often prompted widespread replication by governments, conservation groups, and sometimes communities themselves. However, this replication is often done without a fundamental understanding of why co-management may be successful under some conditions but unsuccessful under others. Thus a question of crucial importance to resource managers, stakeholders, and common property theorists alike is what factors enable some of these institutions to succeed while others fail? Drawing on common property and adaptive governance theories, we examine relationships between socioeconomic conditions, institutional design, and the effectiveness of collaborative management in 5 countries throughout the Indo-Pacific region. This innovative project takes a big picture comparative approach to a subject that has often been studied at a local scale.Keywords: Fishery Management, Fisheries Economics, Beyond Anecdote and Advocacy: Assessing the Impact of Co-management as an Instrument for Fisheries Governanc