Predictive validity of the CriSTAL tool for short-term mortality in older people presenting at Emergency Departments: a prospective study

© 2018, The Author(s). Abstract: To determine the validity of the Australian clinical prediction tool Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care (CRISTAL) based on objective clinical criteria to accurately identify risk of death within 3 months of admission among older patients. Methods: Prospective study of ≥ 65 year-olds presenting at emergency departments in five Australian (Aus) and four Danish (DK) hospitals. Logistic regression analysis was used to model factors for death prediction; Sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve and calibration with bootstrapping techniques were used to describe predictive accuracy. Results: 2493 patients, with median age 78–80 years (DK–Aus). The deceased had significantly higher mean CriSTAL with Australian mean of 8.1 (95% CI 7.7–8.6 vs. 5.8 95% CI 5.6–5.9) and Danish mean 7.1 (95% CI 6.6–7.5 vs. 5.5 95% CI 5.4–5.6). The model with Fried Frailty score was optimal for the Australian cohort but prediction with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was also good (AUROC 0.825 and 0.81, respectively). Values for the Danish cohort were AUROC 0.764 with Fried and 0.794 using CFS. The most significant independent predictors of short-term death in both cohorts were advanced malignancy, frailty, male gender and advanced age. CriSTAL’s accuracy was only modest for in-hospital death prediction in either setting. Conclusions: The modified CriSTAL tool (with CFS instead of Fried’s frailty instrument) has good discriminant power to improve prognostic certainty of short-term mortality for ED physicians in both health systems. This shows promise in enhancing clinician’s confidence in initiating earlier end-of-life discussions

Shear Capacity of Monolithic Concrete Joints without Transverse Reinforcement.

yesA mechanism analysis based on the upper-bound theorem of concrete plasticity for monolithic concrete joints without transverse reinforcement is presented. Concrete is modelled as a rigid–perfectly plastic material obeying modified Coulomb failure criteria. Existing stress–strain relationships of concrete in compression and tension are comprehensively modified using the crack band theory to allow for concrete type and maximum aggregate size. Simple equations for the effectiveness factor for compression, ratio of effective tensile strength to compressive strength and angle of concrete friction are then mathematically developed using the modified stress–strain relationships of concrete. In addition, 12 push-off specimens made of all-lightweight, sand–lightweight and normal-weight concrete having maximum aggregate size between 4 and 19 mm were physically tested. Test results and mechanism analysis clearly showed that the shear capacity of monolithic concrete joints increased with the increase of the maximum aggregate size and dry density of concrete. The mean and standard deviation of the ratio between experimentally measured and predicted (by the mechanism analysis shear capacities) are 1·01 and 0·16 respectively, showing a closer prediction and less variation than Vecchio and Collins' equation, regardless of concrete type and maximum aggregate size

Degrees of tenant isolation for cloud-hosted software services : a cross-case analysis

A challenge, when implementing multi-tenancy in a cloud-hosted software service, is how to ensure that the performance and resource consumption of one tenant does not adversely affect other tenants. Software designers and architects must achieve an optimal degree of tenant isolation for their chosen application requirements. The objective of this research is to reveal the trade-offs, commonalities, and differences to be considered when implementing the required degree of tenant isolation. This research uses a cross-case analysis of selected open source cloud-hosted software engineering tools to empirically evaluate varying degrees of isolation between tenants. Our research reveals five commonalities across the case studies: disk space reduction, use of locking, low cloud resource consumption, customization and use of plug-in architecture, and choice of multi-tenancy pattern. Two of these common factors compromise tenant isolation. The degree of isolation is reduced when there is no strategy to reduce disk space and customization and plug-in architecture is not adopted. In contrast, the degree of isolation improves when careful consideration is given to how to handle a high workload, locking of data and processes is used to prevent clashes between multiple tenants and selection of appropriate multi-tenancy pattern. The research also revealed five case study differences: size of generated data, cloud resource consumption, sensitivity to workload changes, the effect of the software process, client latency and bandwidth, and type of software process. The degree of isolation is impaired, in our results, by the large size of generated data, high resource consumption by certain software processes, high or fluctuating workload, low client latency, and bandwidth when transferring multiple files between repositories. Additionally, this research provides a novel explanatory framework for (i) mapping tenant isolation to different software development processes, cloud resources and layers of the cloud stack; and (ii) explaining the different trade-offs to consider affecting tenant isolation (i.e. resource sharing, the number of users/requests, customizability, the size of generated data, the scope of control of the cloud application stack and business constraints) when implementing multi-tenant cloud-hosted software services. This research suggests that software architects have to pay attention to the trade-offs, commonalities, and differences we identify to achieve their degree of tenant isolation requirements

Stroke risk associated with balloon based catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation: Rationale and design of the MACPAF Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Catheter ablation of the pulmonary veins has become accepted as a standard therapeutic approach for symptomatic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF). However, there is some evidence for an ablation associated (silent) stroke risk, lowering the hope to limit the stroke risk by restoration of rhythm over rate control in AF. The purpose of the prospective randomized single-center study "Mesh Ablator versus Cryoballoon Pulmonary Vein Ablation of Symptomatic Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation" (MACPAF) is to compare the efficacy and safety of two balloon based pulmonary vein ablation systems in patients with symptomatic paroxysmal AF.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Patients are randomized 1:1 for the Arctic Front^®or the HD Mesh Ablator^®catheter for left atrial catheter ablation (LACA). The predefined endpoints will be assessed by brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), neuro(psycho)logical tests and a subcutaneously implanted reveal recorder for AF detection. According to statistics 108 patients will be enrolled.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Findings from the MACPAF trial will help to balance the benefits and risks of LACA for symptomatic paroxysmal AF. Using serial brain MRIs might help to identify patients at risk for LACA-associated cerebral thromboembolism. Potential limitations of the study are the single-center design, the existence of a variety of LACA-catheters, the missing placebo-group and the impossibility to assess the primary endpoint in a blinded fashion.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>clinicaltrials.gov NCT01061931</p

Estimating the prevalence of obstetric fistula: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Obstetric fistula is a severe condition which has devastating consequences for a woman's life. The estimation of the burden of fistula at the population level has been impaired by the rarity of diagnosis and the lack of rigorous studies. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence and incidence of fistula in low and middle income countries. METHODS: Six databases were searched, involving two separate searches: one on fistula specifically and one on broader maternal and reproductive morbidities. Studies including estimates of incidence and prevalence of fistula at the population level were included. We conducted meta-analyses of prevalence of fistula among women of reproductive age and the incidence of fistula among recently pregnant women. RESULTS: Nineteen studies were included in this review. The pooled prevalence in population-based studies was 0.29 (95% CI 0.00, 1.07) fistula per 1000 women of reproductive age in all regions. Separated by region we found 1.57 (95% CI 1.16, 2.06) in sub Saharan Africa and South Asia, 1.60 (95% CI 1.16, 2.10) per 1000 women of reproductive age in sub Saharan Africa and 1.20 (95% CI 0.10, 3.54) per 1000 in South Asia. The pooled incidence was 0.09 (95% CI 0.01, 0.25) per 1000 recently pregnant women. CONCLUSIONS: Our study is the most comprehensive study of the burden of fistula to date. Our findings suggest that the prevalence of fistula is lower than previously reported. The low burden of fistula should not detract from their public health importance, however, given the preventability of the condition, and the devastating consequences of fistula

Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors and Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND: Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) have been associated with upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. Given their worldwide use, even small risks account for a large number of cases. This study has been conducted with carefully collected information to further investigate the relationship between SSRIs and upper GI bleeding. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study in hospitals in Spain and in Italy. Cases were patients aged ≥18 years with a primary diagnosis of acute upper GI bleeding diagnosed by endoscopy; three controls were matched by sex, age, date of admission (within 3 months) and hospital among patients who were admitted for elective surgery for non-painful disorders. Exposures to SSRIs, other antidepressants and other drugs were defined as any use of these drugs in the 7 days before the day on which upper gastrointestinal bleeding started (index day). RESULTS: 581 cases of upper GI bleeding and 1358 controls were considered eligible for the study; no differences in age or sex distribution were observed between cases and controls after matching. Overall, 4.0% of the cases and 3.3% of controls used an SSRI antidepressant in the week before the index day. No significant risk of upper GI bleeding was encountered for SSRI antidepressants (adjusted odds ratio, 1.06, 95% CI, 0.57-1.96) or for whichever other grouping of antidepressants. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this case-control study showed no significant increase in upper GI bleeding with SSRIs and provide good evidence that the magnitude of any increase in risk is not greater than 2

Executive function does not predict coping with symptoms in stable patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Associations between coping with and control over psychotic symptoms were examined using the Maastricht Assessment of Coping Strategies-24, testing the hypothesis that the cognitive domain of executive functioning predicted quality and quantity of coping.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>MACS-24 was administered to 32 individuals with a diagnosis of schizophrenia. For each of 24 symptoms, experience of distress, type of coping and the resulting degree of perceived control were assessed. Coping types were reduced to two contrasting coping categories: symptomatic coping (SC) and non-symptomatic coping (NSC; combining active problem solving, passive illness behaviour, active problem avoiding, and passive problem avoiding). Cognitive functioning was assessed using the GIT (Groninger Intelligence Test), the Zoo map (BADS: Behavioural Assessment of Dysexecutive function), Stroop-test and Trail making.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Cognitive function was not associated with frequency of coping, nor did cognitive function differentially predict SC or NSC. Cognitive function similarly was not associated with symptom distress or level of perceived control over the symptom.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There was no evidence that cognitive function predicts quantity or quality of coping with symptoms in people with a diagnosis of schizophrenia. Variation in the realm of emotion regulation and social cognition may be more predictive of coping with psychotic symptoms.</p