Does Long-Term GPS in the Western Alps Finally Confirm Earthquake Mechanisms?

International audienceThe availability of GPS survey data spanning 22 years, along with several independent velocity solutions including up to 16 years of permanent GPS data, presents a unique opportunity to search for persistent (and thus reliable) deformation patterns in the Western Alps, which in turn allow a reinterpretation of the active tectonics of this region. While GPS velocities are still too uncertain to be interpreted on an individual basis, the analysis of range‐perpendicular GPS velocity profiles clearly highlights zones of extension in the center of the belt (15.3 to 3.1 nanostrain/year from north to south), with shortening in the forelands. The contrasting geodetic deformation pattern is coherent with earthquake focal mechanisms and related strain/stress patterns over the entire Western Alps. The GPS results finally provide a reliable and robust quantification of the regional strain rates. The observed vertical motions of 2.0 to 0.5 mm/year of uplift from north to south in the core of the Western Alps is interpreted to result from buoyancy forces related to postglacial rebound, erosional unloading, and/or viscosity anomalies in the crustal and lithospheric root. Spatial decorrelation between vertical and horizontal (seismicity related) deformation calls for a combination of processes to explain the complex present‐day dynamics of the Western Alps

Present-day uplift of the western Alps

International audienceCollisional mountain belts grow as a consequence of continental plate convergence and eventuallydisappear under the combined effects of gravitational collapse and erosion. Using a decade ofGPS data, we show that the western Alps are currently characterized by zero horizontal velocityboundary conditions, offering the opportunity to investigate orogen evolution at the time ofcessation of plate convergence. We find no significant horizontal motion within the belt, but GPS andlevelling measurements independently show a regional pattern of uplift reaching ~2.5 mm/yr in thenorthwestern Alps. Unless a low viscosity crustal root under the northwestern Alps locally enhancesthe vertical response to surface unloading, the summed effects of isostatic responses to erosion andglaciation explain at most 60% of the observed uplift rates. Rock-uplift rates corrected from transientglacial isostatic adjustment contributions likely exceed erosion rates in the northwestern Alps. In theabsence of active convergence, the observed surface uplift must result from deep-seated processes

Triggering of the 2014 M_w7.3 Papanoa earthquake by a slow slip event in Guerrero, Mexico

Since their discovery two decades ago, slow slip events have been shown to play an important role in accommodating strain in subduction zones. However, the physical mechanisms that generate slow slip and the relationships with earthquakes are unclear. Slow slip events have been recorded in the Guerrero segment of the Cocos–North America subduction zone. Here we use inversion of position time series recorded by a continuous GPS network to reconstruct the evolution of aseismic slip on the subduction interface of the Guerrero segment. We find that a slow slip event began in February 2014, two months before the magnitude (M_w) 7.3 Papanoa earthquake on 18 April. The slow slip event initiated in a region adjacent to the earthquake hypocentre and extended into the vicinity of the seismogenic zone. This spatio-temporal proximity strongly suggests that the Papanoa earthquake was triggered by the ongoing slow slip event. We demonstrate that the triggering mechanism could be either static stress increases in the hypocentral region, as revealed by Coulomb stress modelling, or enhanced weakening of the earthquake hypocentral area by the slow slip. We also show that the plate interface in the Guerrero area is highly coupled between slow slip events, and that most of the accumulated strain is released aseismically during the slow slip episodes

Coupled, Physics-Based Modeling Reveals Earthquake Displacements are Critical to the 2018 Palu, Sulawesi Tsunami

The September 2018, Mw 7.5 Sulawesi earthquake occurring on the Palu-Koro strike-slip fault system was followed by an unexpected localized tsunami. We show that direct earthquake-induced uplift and subsidence could have sourced the observed tsunami within Palu Bay. To this end, we use a physics-based, coupled earthquake–tsunami modeling framework tightly constrained by observations. The model combines rupture dynamics, seismic wave propagation, tsunami propagation and inundation. The earthquake scenario, featuring sustained supershear rupture propagation, matches key observed earthquake characteristics, including the moment magnitude, rupture duration, fault plane solution, teleseismic waveforms and inferred horizontal ground displacements. The remote stress regime reflecting regional transtension applied in the model produces a combination of up to 6 m left-lateral slip and up to 2 m normal slip on the straight fault segment dipping 65∘ East beneath Palu Bay. The time-dependent, 3D seafloor displacements are translated into bathymetry perturbations with a mean vertical offset of 1.5 m across the submarine fault segment. This sources a tsunami with wave amplitudes and periods that match those measured at the Pantoloan wave gauge and inundation that reproduces observations from field surveys. We conclude that a source related to earthquake displacements is probable and that landsliding may not have been the primary source of the tsunami. These results have important implications for submarine strike-slip fault systems worldwide. Physics-based modeling offers rapid response specifically in tectonic settings that are currently underrepresented in operational tsunami hazard assessment

14 YEARS OF GPS TROPOSPHERIC DELAYS IN THE FRENCH-ITALIAN BORDER REGION: A DATA BASE FOR METEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSES

GPS data from 181 permanent stations extracted from different networks covering France and the Italian part of the Alps are used to estimate a homogeneous set of tropospheric parameters over 14 years (from January 1998 to May 2012). The tropospheric zenith delay (ZTD) quantified in the GPS data analysis is closely related to the value of integrated water vapor above each GPS station. GPS ZTD is already successfully used for operational weather prediction and meteorological analyses, providing valuable data to improve our comprehension of the tropospheric water cycle and in particular to improve the prediction of precipitations. Moreover, GPS tropospheric measurements are intrinsically stable, so that long term observations represent a significant contribution to climatological studies. The results of a homogeneous reanalysis of up to 14 years of data with MIT's GAMIT/GLOBK software version 10.4 are presented. The estimated tropospheric parameters are 1 ZTD every 2 hours and one couple of horizontal tropospheric gradients (NS and EW) every 3 hours for each of the 181 stations, simultaneously with a daily positioning solution. A quality check of the tropospheric parameter time series identifies offsets, for example due to instrument changes at individual sites. The resulting verified time series can further be used for meteorological and climatological studies that go beyond the geodetic work presented here. Thanks to the length of the data set in time, a regional climatological approach could permit identifying specific patterns of ZTD variation that are related to severe weather events. The regional GPS stations could then contribute to an early warning system

14 years of GPS tropospheric delays in the French\u2013Italian border region: comparisons and first application in a case study

Global Positioning System (GPS) data from 181 permanent stations extracted from different networks covering France and the Italian part of the Alps are used to estimate a homogeneous set of tropospheric parameters over 14 years (from January 1998 to May 2012). The tropospheric Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) quantified in the GPS data analysis is closely related to the value of integrated water vapor above each GPS station. GPS ZTD is already successfully used for operational weather prediction and meteorological analyses, providing valuable data to improve our comprehension of the tropospheric water cycle and in particular to improve the prediction of precipitations. Moreover, GPS tropospheric measurements are intrinsically stable, so that long-term observations represent a signi``ficant contribution to climatological studies. The results of a homogeneous reanalysis of up to 14 years of data with MIT\u2019s GAMIT/GLOBK software are presented. The estimated tropospheric parameters are one ZTD every 2 h and one couple of horizontal tropospheric gradients, seven times a day for each station, simultaneously with a daily positioning solution. A quality check of the tropospheric parameter time series identifies offsets, for example, due to instrument changes at individual sites. Our analysis strategy using the empirical GMF is validated by a comparison with the new GPT2 model. Moreover, a comparison with the IGS analysis of 1 year is provided for common stations. The resulting verified time series can be used for meteorological and climatological studies. As first examples, we present a convergence test for the ZTD change in time and a regional climatological approach that could permit identifying specific patterns of ZTD variation that are related to severe weather events. The 181 ZTD and gradient time series are made available in the Reseau National GPS permanent (RENAG) database