Wicked problems and a 'wicked' solution.

BACKGROUND: 'Wicked' is the term used to describe some of the most challenging and complex issues of our time, many of which threaten human health. Climate change, biodiversity loss, persisting poverty, the advancing obesity epidemic, and food insecurity are all examples of such wicked problems. However there is a strong body of evidence describing the solutions for addressing many of these problems. Given that much is known about how many of these problems could be addressed - and given the risks of not acting - what will it take to create the 'tipping point' needed for effective action? MAIN BODY: A recent (2015) court ruling in The Hague held that the Dutch government's stance on climate change was illegal, ordering them to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 25% within 5 years (by 2020), relative to 1990 levels. The case was filed on behalf of 886 Dutch citizens, suing the government for violating human rights and climate changes treaties by failing to take adequate action to prevent the harmful impacts of climate change. This judicial ruling has the potential to provide a way forward, inspiring other civil movements and creating a template from which to address other wicked problems. CONCLUSION: This judicial strategy to address the need to lower greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands is not a magic bullet, and requires a particular legal and institutional setting. However it has the potential to be a game-changer - providing an example of a strategy for achieving domestic regulatory change that is likely to be replicable in some countries elsewhere, and providing an example of a particularly 'wicked' (in the positive, street-slang sense of the word) strategy to address seemingly intractable and wicked problems

Age at quitting smoking as a predictor of risk of cardiovascular disease incidence independent of smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years

BACKGROUND Risk prediction for CVD events has been shown to vary according to current smoking status, pack-years smoked over a lifetime, time since quitting and age at quitting. The latter two are closely and inversely related. It is not known whether the age at which one quits smoking is an additional important predictor of CVD events. The aim of this study was to determine whether the risk of CVD events varied according to age at quitting after taking into account current smoking status, lifetime pack-years smoked and time since quitting. FINDINGS We used the Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event for a cohort of participants in the Framingham Offspring Heart Study who attended the fourth examination between ages 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD. Those who quit before the median age of 37 years had a risk of CVD incidence similar to those who were never smokers. The incorporation of age at quitting in the smoking variable resulted in better prediction than the model which had a simple current smoker/non-smoker measure and the one that incorporated both time since quitting and pack-years. These models demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The risk among those quitting more than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those whose age at quitting was prior to 44 years was similar to the risk among never smokers. However, the risk among those quitting less than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those who continued to smoke until 44 years of age (or beyond) was two and a half times higher than that of never smokers. CONCLUSIONS Age at quitting improves the prediction of risk of CVD incidence even after other smoking measures are taken into account. The clinical benefit of adding age at quitting to the model with other smoking measures may be greater than the associated costs. Thus, age at quitting should be considered in addition to smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years when counselling individuals about their cardiovascular risk.This research was supported by an NHMRC health services research grant (no. 465130), an NHMRC/NHF PhD scholarship and a Vichealth Fellowship

The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Should We "Fear the Fear"? Comment on "The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Is It Everything We Feared for Health?"

RLabonté et al entitle their paper in this issue of the International Journal of Health Policy and Management "The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Is It Everything We Feared for Health?" Tantalisingly, they do not directly answer the question they pose, and in this commentary, we suggest that it is the wrong question; we should not 'fear' the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) at all, rather we should ask how we are to respond. The public health community is right to be concerned with the potential implications of trade and investment agreements (TIAs) for health, particularly with shifts from multilateral to regional/bilateral agreements including provisions with greater risk to public health. But it is critical to understand also the potential health benefits, and especially the mitigating policy and governance mechanisms to respond to adverse TIA implications. Given entrenched and divergent sectoral worldviews and perspectives between trade and health communities on these issues, achieving the requisite understanding will also likely require characterisation of these perspectives and identification of areas of common understanding and agreed solutions

Noncommunicable Disease Prevention and Control in Mongolia: A Policy Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the major global cause of morbidity and mortality. In Mongolia, a number of health policies have been developed targeting the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases. This paper aimed to evaluate the extent to which NCD-related policies introduced in Mongolia align with the World Health Organization (WHO) 2008-2013 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. METHODS: We conducted a review of policy documents introduced by the Government of Mongolia from 2000 to 2013. A literature review, internet-based search, and expert consultation identified the policy documents. Information was extracted from the documents using a matrix, mapping each document against the six objectives of the WHO 2008-2013 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs and five dimensions: data source, aim and objectives of document, coverage of conditions, coverage of risk factors and implementation plan. 45 NCD-related policies were identified. RESULTS: Prevention and control of the common NCDs and their major risk factors as described by WHO were widely addressed, and policies aligned well with the objectives of the WHO 2008-2013 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. Many documents included explicit implementation or monitoring frameworks. It appears that each objective of the WHO 2008-2013 NCD Action Plan was well addressed. Specific areas less well and/or not addressed were chronic respiratory disease, physical activity guidelines and dietary standards. CONCLUSIONS: The Mongolian Government response to the emerging burden of NCDs is a population-based public health approach that includes a national multisectoral framework and integration of NCD prevention and control policies into national health policies. Our findings suggest gaps in addressing chronic respiratory disease, physical activity guidelines, specific food policy actions restricting sales advertising of food products, and a lack of funding specifically supporting NCD research. The neglect of these areas may hamper addressing the NCD burden, and needs immediate action. Future research should explore the effectiveness of national NCD policies and the extent to which the policies are implemented in practice

Noncommunicable disease prevention and control in Mongolia: a policy analysis

Background: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the major global cause of morbidity and mortality. In Mongolia, a number of health policies have been developed targeting the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases. This paper aimed to evaluate the extent to which NCD-related policies introduced in Mongolia align with the World Health Organization (WHO) 2008– 2013 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs.Methods: We conducted a review of policy documents introduced by the Government of Mongolia from 2000 to 2013. A literature review, internet-based search, and expert consultation identified the policy documents. Information was extracted from the documents using a matrix, mapping each document against the six objectives of the WHO 2008–2013 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs and five dimensions: data source, aim and objectives of document, coverage of conditions, coverage of risk factors and implementation plan. 45 NCD-related policies were identified.Results: Prevention and control of the common NCDs and their major risk factors as described by WHO were widely addressed, and policies aligned well with the objectives of the WHO 2008– 2013 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. Many documents included explicit implementation or monitoring frameworks. It appears that each objective of the WHO 2008– 2013 NCD Action Plan was well addressed. Specific areas less well and/or not addressed were chronic respiratory disease, physical activity guidelines and dietary standards.Conclusions: The Mongolian Government response to the emerging burden of NCDs is a population-based public health approach that includes a national multisectoral framework and integration of NCD prevention and control policies into national health policies. Our findings suggest gaps in addressing chronic respiratory disease,physical activity guidelines, specific food policy actions restricting sales advertising of food products, and a lack of funding specifically supporting NCD research. The neglect of these areas may hamper addressing the NCD burden, and needs immediate action. Future research should explore the effectiveness of national NCD policies and the extent to which the policies are implemented in practice

How much priority is given to nutrition and health in the EU Common Agricultural Policy?

Agriculture in the European Union (EU) is strongly influenced by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). There have been repeated calls for CAP to address nutrition-related health, particularly obesity and non-communicable disease (NCD) in the EU. However, aligning agricultural policy such as CAP with nutrition is complex, not least because the aims of agricultural policy are predominantly economic, presenting a challenge for developing coherence between agricultural trade and health policy. This research examined the political priority given to nutrition-related health concerns within CAP to date, and the solutions suggested by agricultural, trade and health policy-makers and public health nutrition advocates, via interviews of 20 high-level participants from respective sectors. The participants provided diverse perspectives, often varying by sector and institution, on the connections between agricultural policy and nutrition-related health, the extent to which nutrition concerns have "been addressed via CAP and whether CAP is an appropriate and effective policy approach to improve nutrition-related health in the EU in the future. The key findings suggest the need for communication and agreement of clear high-level nutrition guidelines, clarity on the EU mandate to address nutrition-related health concerns via policy, and stronger engagement of civil society in the issues if CAP is to address nutrition more than it is doing currently. The difference in worldviews between agricultural/trade representatives, and those from public health, also needs to be addressed. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.orgilicenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

Obesity and Trends in Life Expectancy

Background. Increasing levels of obesity over recent decades have been expected to lead to an epidemic of diabetes and a subsequent reduction in life expectancy, but instead all-cause and cardiovascular-specific mortality rates have decreased steadily in most developed countries and life expectancy has increased. Methods. This paper suggests several factors that may be masking the effects of obesity on life expectancy. Results. It is possible that health and life expectancy gains could be even greater if it was not for the increasing prevalence of extreme obesity. It is also possible that the principal impact of obesity is on disability-free life expectancy rather than on life expectancy itself. Conclusion. If the principal impact of obesity were through disability-free life expectancy rather than on life expectancy itself, this would have substantial implications for the health of individuals and the future burden on the health care system

Innovative Use of the Law to Address Complex Global Health Problems Comment on “The Legal Strength of International Health Instruments - What It Brings to Global Health Governance?”

Addressing the increasingly globalised determinants of many important problems affecting human health is a complex task requiring collective action. We suggest that part of the solution to addressing intractable global health issues indeed lies with the role of new legal instruments in the form of globally binding treaties, as described in the recent article of Nikogosian and Kickbusch. However, in addition to the use of international law to develop new treaties, another part of the solution may lie in innovative use of existing legal instruments. A 2015 court ruling in The Hague, which ordered the Dutch government to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 25% within five years, complements this perspective, suggesting a way forward for addressing global health problems that critically involves civil society and innovative use of existing domestic legal instruments

3rd Annual Conference of the Leverhulme Centre for Integrative Research on Agriculture and Health (LCIRAH), Developing methods in agriculture and health research, London, 13–14 June 2013

Non-PRIFPRI3; ISI; CRP4; B Promoting healthy food systemsPHND; A4NHCGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH