Factors behind the dynamics of land use evolution: case of Lebanon

International audienceAbstracts Monitoring and understanding the evolution of land use and land cover is a key factor for many environmental studies as well as for policymakers. Moreover, policymakers are interested in understanding the factors that have a significant impact on land use change. This paper analyses the dynamics of land use change in Lebanon between the years 1984 and 2019 and identifies the main factors behind this process. The use of LandSat satellite images enables the creation of land use maps at several periods and the monitoring of the evolution of built up areas as well as of green areas. Five periods emerge from this analysis, for which it is possible to propose explanatory factors, after an in-depth qualitative analysis. Within the framework of Structural Equation Models, a Confirmatory Factor Analysis is carried out to determine the impacts of several factors related to governance and financial data. Moreover, the urban sprawl is further investigated and explained by cultural, environmental, and infrastructural factors. The main results reveal that the development of built up areas is highly dependent on good funding conditions, whereas banking conditions and weak governance are correlated. The case of Lebanon presents specificities probably linked to historical and cultural considerations that deserve to be studied in future works. In the form of recommendations, new land use policies should be enacted to ensure sustainability in the form of an equilibrium between the urban development, from one side, and the preservation of natural resources and good environmental conditions on the other side. This could comprise the preservation of natural zones; the subsidization of the cultivation profession; and the encouragement of urban densification instead of horizontal sprawl

Spatial analysis of land surface temperature distribution: case of the Greater Beirut Area

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Land Suitability Analysis for Sustainable Urban Development: A Case of Nabatiyeh Region in Lebanon

Urbanization has led to the degradation of green areas and natural resources, which are critical for preserving biodiversity and natural benefits. Sustainable urban development (SUD) practices aim to balance urbanization with preserving and protecting green land and natural resources to achieve greater sustainability. This study evaluated land suitability for SUD in the Nabatiyeh area of Lebanon using a multi-criteria decision analysis technique, the analytical hierarchy process, combined with a geographic information system. The elevations and slopes were the most important criteria, followed by the distances from urban agglomeration and industrial areas, accessibility, and land cover types, with corresponding weights of 34% and 36%, 12%, 9%, 6%, and 3%, respectively. The study created a suitability map for future SUD. This identification assists urban planners and policymakers in making informed decisions regarding the development of urban areas. The study’s findings highlight the efficiency of combining multi-criteria decision analysis with geospatial techniques for urban planning and environmental management in promoting sustainable development and protecting the environment. Future research could explore the possibility of integrating administrative reforms to promote SUD, including improving governance, enhancing the efficiency of governmental agencies responsible for urban development, building scientific capacities, and increasing officials’ accountability

Passengers receptivity of a new public transport mode: case of a BRT project in Lebanon

International audienceAbstract This study examines how far the level of knowledge on a new public transport mode in Lebanon might affect mode choice. Indeed, passenger mode choice is a major issue associated with the effectiveness of new transport projects, as their level of effectiveness and feasibility will depend on the number of new adopters. This investigation is performed by developing mode choice models based on data collected via a questionnaire-based survey. The models were used to compare preferences among private cars, current public transport modes and a newly proposed Bus Rapid Transit system. The driving factors are divided into two categories: economic and psychological. The results reveal that explicit evaluations of several factors on the proposed transport modes yields mode choices different from direct evaluation. Besides, the structure of the utility function reveals that economic driving factors prevail over the psychological aspects, which is the opposite of what is observed with direct mode assessment. Moreover, people’s expectations of the proposed Bus Rapid Transit were significantly positive in terms of usability in addition to operational and economic reliability. This study shows that people’s level of knowledge of previous transport modes and their perceptual expectations of new travel modes must be taken into consideration in the feasibility studies of any transport implementations in the developing countries where the public transport services are discouraged

Scenario-Based Predictions of Urban Dynamics in Île-de-France Region: A New Combinatory Methodologic Approach of Variance Analysis and Frequency Ratio

International audienceModelling land use dynamics is a critical scientific issue. Despite a diversity of models coming from the fields of remote sensing, geography, and economics, including multicriteria decision analysis and machine-learning models, taking into account the external driving factors of urbanization is still a main challenge. This study aims at simulating various land use development scenarios with global and local parameters. Thus, the developed approach is able to estimate and simulate the dynamic evolution of land use classes, the evolution of urban attractivity, both of which depend on several driving factors. The proposed scenarios incorporate anticipated global changes, such as an increase in oil prices and a decrease in wealth, and local spatial changes such as the provision of new rail lines and the development of new activity zones. The results of simulations, for the study area covering a great part of the Île-de-France region, show for the year 2050 an 18% increase in urban areas and a 25% decrease in bare soils, compared to the year 2018. Moreover, the increase of global prices and the reduction of income levels would increase the attractivity of public transport modes and drive urbanization around stations, reduce the accessible distances to public transport systems by 8.5%, reduce the dependency on private vehicles, and increase the concentrated saturation of urban development. These scenarios will serve as a basis for the deployment of nature-based solutions and renewable energy production

Impacts of a New Highway on Urban Development and Land Accessibility in Developing Countries: Case of Beirut Southern Entrance in Lebanon

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Land use impacts of implementing a bus rapid transit system: case of Beirut southern corridor

Abstract This study investigates and forecasts the effects of implementing a newly proposed Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in Lebanon on the urban land use evolution between the years 2019 and 2049. It contributes to the emerging scientific literature by proposing a technique intended to identify the potential urban land use impacts of BRT. The identification of these impacts as part of the feasibility study for the BRT is considered important for policymakers, local officials, and urban planners. The impacts are identified by conducting the Analytical Hierarchy Process, based on data collected via survey and interviews with real estate experts. The outcomes show that implementing a BRT service complemented with bus feeder services will: (i) reshape the urban fabric, in proximity to BRT routes and particularly around the stations, by triggering the Transit-Oriented Development and increasing the attractivity of urban development by 6 to 9% according to the distance from BRT route; and (ii) increase the attractivity of urban development projects by 11% in areas distant from the highway if these areas are characterized by high coverage of bus feeder services, low possibility of an increase in estate prices, and medium to high public acceptance of the proposed BRT

Geographically Weighted Regression-Based Predictions of Water–Soil–Energy Nexus Solutions in Île-de-France

International audienceDue to global urbanization, urban areas are encountering many environmental, social, and economic challenges. Different solutions have been proposed and implemented, such as nature-based solutions and green and blue infrastructure. Taking into consideration exogenous factors that are associated with these solutions is a crucial question to assess their possible effects. This study examines the possible explanatory factors and their evolution until the year 2054 of several solutions in the Île-de-France region: wastewater heat-recovery, surface geothermal energy, and heat-mitigation capacities of zones. This investigation is performed by a series of statistical models, namely the ordinary least squares (OLS) and the geographically weighted regressions (GWR), integrated within a geographic information system. The main driving factors were identified as land use/land cover and population distribution. The results show that GWR models capture a large part of spatial autocorrelation. Apropos of prediction results, areas with low, medium, and high potential for implementing specific solutions are determined. Furthermore, the implementation capacities of solutions are compared with the demand depicted as the need for slowing down the effects of surface urban heat islands and the dependence on fossil energy. Moreover, the heat mitigation capacities are not at all times distinctively linked to human activities. Further investigations are needed to discover the remaining possible reasons, particularly air quality, water, vegetation, and climate change