Continuous Time Individual-Level Models of Infectious Disease: a Package EpiILMCT

This paper describes the R package EpiILMCT, which allows users to study the spread of infectious disease using continuous time individual level models (ILMs). The package provides tools for simulation from continuous time ILMs that are based on either spatial demographic, contact network, or a combination of both of them, and for the graphical summarization of epidemics. Model fitting is carried out within a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework. The continuous time ILMs can be implemented within either susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) or susceptible-infected-notified-removed (SINR) compartmental frameworks. As infectious disease data is often partially observed, data uncertainties in the form of missing infection times - and in some situations missing removal times - are accounted for using data augmentation techniques. The package is illustrated using both simulated and an experimental data set on the spread of the tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) disease

Measuring the impact of suspending Umrah, a global mass gathering in Saudi Arabia on the COVID‑19 pandemic

This article uses a stratified SEIR epidemic model to evaluate the impact of Umrah, a global Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic during the month of Ramadan, the peak of the Umrah season. The analyses provide insights into the effects of global mass gatherings on the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic locally and globally

Comparison of Risk Ratios of Shrinkage Estimators in High Dimensions

In this paper, we analyze the risk ratios of several shrinkage estimators using a balanced loss function. The James–Stein estimator is one of a group of shrinkage estimators that has been proposed in the existing literature. For these estimators, sufficient criteria for minimaxity have been established, and the James–Stein estimator’s minimaxity has been derived. We demonstrate that the James–Stein estimator’s minimaxity is still valid even when the parameter space has infinite dimension. It is shown that the positive-part version of the James–Stein estimator is substantially superior to the James–Stein estimator, and we address the asymptotic behavior of their risk ratios to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) when the dimensions of the parameter space are infinite. Finally, a simulation study is carried out to verify the performance evaluation of the considered estimators

Comparison of Risk Ratios of Shrinkage Estimators in High Dimensions

In this paper, we analyze the risk ratios of several shrinkage estimators using a balanced loss function. The James–Stein estimator is one of a group of shrinkage estimators that has been proposed in the existing literature. For these estimators, sufficient criteria for minimaxity have been established, and the James–Stein estimator’s minimaxity has been derived. We demonstrate that the James–Stein estimator’s minimaxity is still valid even when the parameter space has infinite dimension. It is shown that the positive-part version of the James–Stein estimator is substantially superior to the James–Stein estimator, and we address the asymptotic behavior of their risk ratios to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) when the dimensions of the parameter space are infinite. Finally, a simulation study is carried out to verify the performance evaluation of the considered estimators

Estimating Drift Parameters in a Sub-Fractional Vasicek-Type Process

This study deals with drift parameters estimation problems in the sub-fractional Vasicek process given by dxt=θ(μ−xt)dt+dStH, with θ>0, μ∈R being unknown and t≥0; here, SH represents a sub-fractional Brownian motion (sfBm). We introduce new estimators θ^ for θ and μ^ for μ based on discrete time observations and use techniques from Nordin–Peccati analysis. For the proposed estimators θ^ and μ^, strong consistency and the asymptotic normality were established by employing the properties of SH. Moreover, we provide numerical simulations for sfBm and related Vasicek-type process with different values of the Hurst index H

Mixed Caputo Fractional Neutral Stochastic Differential Equations with Impulses and Variable Delay

In this manuscript, a new class of impulsive fractional Caputo neutral stochastic differential equations with variable delay (IFNSDEs, in short) perturbed by fractional Brownain motion (fBm) and Poisson jumps was studied. We utilized the Carathéodory approximation approach and stochastic calculus to present the existence and uniqueness theorem of the stochastic system under Carathéodory-type conditions with Lipschitz and non-Lipschitz conditions as special cases. Some existing results are generalized and enhanced. Finally, an application is offered to illustrate the obtained theoretical results

Mixed Caputo Fractional Neutral Stochastic Differential Equations with Impulses and Variable Delay

In this manuscript, a new class of impulsive fractional Caputo neutral stochastic differential equations with variable delay (IFNSDEs, in short) perturbed by fractional Brownain motion (fBm) and Poisson jumps was studied. We utilized the Carathéodory approximation approach and stochastic calculus to present the existence and uniqueness theorem of the stochastic system under Carathéodory-type conditions with Lipschitz and non-Lipschitz conditions as special cases. Some existing results are generalized and enhanced. Finally, an application is offered to illustrate the obtained theoretical results

An Alternate Generalized Odd Generalized Exponential Family with Applications to Premium Data

In this article, we use Lehmann alternative-II to extend the odd generalized exponential family. The uniqueness of this family lies in the fact that this transformation has resulted in a multitude of inverted distribution families with important applications in actuarial field. We can characterize the density of the new family as a linear combination of generalised exponential distributions, which is useful for studying some of the family’s properties. Among the structural characteristics of this family that are being identified are explicit expressions for numerous types of moments, the quantile function, stress-strength reliability, generating function, Rényi entropy, stochastic ordering, and order statistics. The maximum likelihood methodology is often used to compute the new family’s parameters. To confirm that our results are converging with reduced mean square error and biases, we perform a simulation analysis of one of the special model, namely OGE2-Fréchet. Furthermore, its application using two actuarial data sets is achieved, favoring its superiority over other competitive models, especially in risk theory

An Alternate Generalized Odd Generalized Exponential Family with Applications to Premium Data

In this article, we use Lehmann alternative-II to extend the odd generalized exponential family. The uniqueness of this family lies in the fact that this transformation has resulted in a multitude of inverted distribution families with important applications in actuarial field. We can characterize the density of the new family as a linear combination of generalised exponential distributions, which is useful for studying some of the family’s properties. Among the structural characteristics of this family that are being identified are explicit expressions for numerous types of moments, the quantile function, stress-strength reliability, generating function, Rényi entropy, stochastic ordering, and order statistics. The maximum likelihood methodology is often used to compute the new family’s parameters. To confirm that our results are converging with reduced mean square error and biases, we perform a simulation analysis of one of the special model, namely OGE2-Fréchet. Furthermore, its application using two actuarial data sets is achieved, favoring its superiority over other competitive models, especially in risk theory