Spatial hazard models: limitations and applications

The paper develops an important spatial extension of longitudinal models. Longitudinal models capture variations in the timing of events. Recently, they have also been applied to variations in the spacing of events, using distance as a mathematical equivalent of time. Spatial relationships are, however, characterized by two-dimensionality, and distance alone is therefore insufficient for the assessment of their variations. The methodological extension defines spacing and spatial relationships via two dimensions and develops the associated mathematical and statistical apparatus using joint probability density functions of movement along both axes. The proposed extension will be applied to an empirical example, using data on spatio-temporal fertility patterns in Italy over the last three decades.

THE EMERGENCE OF A KNOWLEDGE AGGLOMERATION: A SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL IN INDIANA

U.S. States and communities increasingly compete for intellectual power so as to thrive toward an economically vibrant setting that spurs the entrepreneurial spirit and attracts businesses and industries from around the world. As a recent report by the U.S. census reveals, 17 U.S. States have gained such intellectual power through the net inmigration of young, single and college educated persons. The State of Indiana is among the remaining thirty-three States that have a negative net balance, even ranking among the bottom ten in their ability to attract this highly valued population segment. In fact, for every young, single, college educated inmigrant, Indiana loses nearly two to other states. However, an analysis at the state-level hides important small-scale variations. This paper therefore investigates the processes leading to changes in the spatial distribution of knowledge workers across Indiana counties, with emphases on in-situ change, retention, intra- and interstate migration. The analysis shows that these demographic changes at the county level in fact reveal a less bleak picture than the state-wide aggregate figures suggest, and uncover remarkable peaks in the landscape of intellectual capital that can serve as a catalyst for attracting intellectual capital from outside the State.

THE EFFECTS OF RURALITY AND INDUSTRIAL SPECIALIZATION ON INCOME GROWTH: U.S. COUNTIES 2000 TO 2003*

This paper— part of a comprehensive project on industry clusters and rural competitiveness— explores the role of industrial specialization and rurality on economic performance for counties in the continental United States. Regression models are estimated that evaluate the impact of industry cluster-specific employment shares on per capita income growth overall, as well as in a sequence of different contextual settings. Overall, the results suggest that economic disparities across U.S. counties will diminish. The results also suggest that economic specialization “per se” is not a guarantee for economic growth. Instead, economic growth very much depends on the type of specialization and the contextual setting, with distinct differences between, for example, the metropolitan sphere, the rural sphere, and the rural-metro interface.Manufactured Housing;Economic Growth, Industry Clusters, Rural America

Brain Drain in Rural America

The paper aims at understanding changes in the distribution and accumulation of intellectual capital by analyzing migrants' educational profiles across a sample of 303 U.S. counties. The results suggest that newcomers are better educated than the resident population, and the education gap is most pronounced for newcomers from other states. The results further suggest that the educational status of newcomers "in-migrants" is positively related to the educational status of the resident population "stayers", thus implying a further agglomeration of human capital across space. However, for interstate migrants the effect is context-dependent, playing a greater role in urban than in rural settings.Human Capital, Migration, Brain Drain, Community/Rural/Urban Development, J24, R23,

Spatial hazard models: limitations and applications

The paper develops an important spatial extension of longitudinal models. Longitudinal models capture variations in the timing of events. Recently, they have also been applied to variations in the spacing of events, using distance as a mathematical equivalent of time. Spatial relationships are, however, characterized by two-dimensionality, and distance alone is therefore insufficient for the assessment of their variations. The methodological extension defines spacing and spatial relationships via two dimensions and develops the associated mathematical and statistical apparatus using joint probability density functions of movement along both axes. The proposed extension will be applied to an empirical example, using data on spatio-temporal fertility patterns in Italy over the last three decades

THE EMERGENCE OF A KNOWLEDGE AGGLOMERATION: A SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL IN INDIANA

U.S. States and communities increasingly compete for intellectual power so as to thrive toward an economically vibrant setting that spurs the entrepreneurial spirit and attracts businesses and industries from around the world. As a recent report by the U.S. census reveals, 17 U.S. States have gained such intellectual power through the net inmigration of young, single and college educated persons. The State of Indiana is among the remaining thirty-three States that have a negative net balance, even ranking among the bottom ten in their ability to attract this highly valued population segment. In fact, for every young, single, college educated inmigrant, Indiana loses nearly two to other states. However, an analysis at the state-level hides important small-scale variations. This paper therefore investigates the processes leading to changes in the spatial distribution of knowledge workers across Indiana counties, with emphases on in-situ change, retention, intra- and interstate migration. The analysis shows that these demographic changes at the county level in fact reveal a less bleak picture than the state-wide aggregate figures suggest, and uncover remarkable peaks in the landscape of intellectual capital that can serve as a catalyst for attracting intellectual capital from outside the State

Rent Shifts in American Rental Housing Markets, 2000-2009: Directional Heterogeneity in Distance Decay Patterns

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Aging and Feminization: Implications for Future Travel Demands of the Elderly

An increasing proportion of the oldest-old (85+) population, combined with a pronounced abundance of older women relative to older men, characterize the demographic development of industrialized countries. Both, aging and feminization, strongly influence the transportation demands of the future. As people age, their driving abilities diminish, leading to driving reduction and ultimately driving cessation. Moreover, the literature suggests that the driving adjustments operate differently for men and women. Especially, women are prone to cease driving at an earlier age than men, and thus are in need of travel modes other than driving at an earlier age. This paper therefore aims at estimating the demand for non-automobile based mobility of the elderly. Towards that end, it develops a multi-risk survival model that links the demographic shifts towards a growing elderly population and towards the feminization of the older population with driving cessations rates. The model is used to simulate the future demand for non-automobile based mobility of the elderly, as well as estimates of older men's and women's expected number of years without driving a car. Preliminary results for The Netherlands and the U.S. suggest that, while women's conditional life expectancies are substantially higher than those of men, there is barely any difference between men's and women's expected number of years without driving a car. Moreover, in the Netherlands, demand growth rates will exceed the growth rates of the elderly population over the next 15 years. In the U.S., in contrast, excessive demand growth rates will occur substantially later, when the huge baby boom has reached the oldest age cohorts. The paper concludes with a discussion of policies and planning strategies needed to respond to the mobility needs of the elderly following driving reduction and driving cessation

Strategic Interaction and Spatial Multiplier Effects in Local Growth Control Policies: The California Housing Market

Since the 1970s, growth controls spread across many metropolitan regions in the United States. Several studies address the effects of local growth controls on housing markets, particularly its price effect, which is induced by rising construction cost, constrained housing supply, improved amenities, and market reorientation of homebuilders. However, only few studies explicitly address inter-jurisdictional spatial spillovers and strategic interaction of policy-makers of different jurisdictions in the design of growth control policies. This study focuses on two housing market outcomes, supply of new housing and market orientation, and utilizes a spatial econometric framework to systematically investigate local and global spatial spillovers giving rise to spatial multiplier effects. Preliminary results suggest that market orientation of new home building is primarily influenced by population growth and building permit caps, with positive spillovers at the local level only. For the supply of new housing, however, the models seem to suggest positive global spillover effects. However, there is additional indication of a potential relevance of including spatial heterogeneity in the model specification. Specifically, a north-south disparity or a coastal-inland disparity may have non-negligible impacts with concurrent implications for policy-making.spatial spillovers, growth controls, housing supply, market orientation, Public Economics, C21, H23, H73, R31,

Aging and Feminization: Implications for Future Travel Demands of the Elderly

An increasing proportion of the oldest-old (85+) population, combined with a pronounced abundance of older women relative to older men, characterize the demographic development of industrialized countries. Both, aging and feminization, strongly influence the transportation demands of the future. As people age, their driving abilities diminish, leading to driving reduction and ultimately driving cessation. Moreover, the literature suggests that the driving adjustments operate differently for men and women. Especially, women are prone to cease driving at an earlier age than men, and thus are in need of travel modes other than driving at an earlier age. This paper therefore aims at estimating the demand for non-automobile based mobility of the elderly. Towards that end, it develops a multi-risk survival model that links the demographic shifts towards a growing elderly population and towards the feminization of the older population with driving cessations rates. The model is used to simulate the future demand for non-automobile based mobility of the elderly, as well as estimates of older men's and women's expected number of years without driving a car. Preliminary results for The Netherlands and the U.S. suggest that, while women's conditional life expectancies are substantially higher than those of men, there is barely any difference between men's and women's expected number of years without driving a car. Moreover, in the Netherlands, demand growth rates will exceed the growth rates of the elderly population over the next 15 years. In the U.S., in contrast, excessive demand growth rates will occur substantially later, when the huge baby boom has reached the oldest age cohorts. The paper concludes with a discussion of policies and planning strategies needed to respond to the mobility needs of the elderly following driving reduction and driving cessation.