Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries

Headline issue: This paper informs the development community about the effects of climate change on migration patterns within and out of developing countries. It concentrates on the economic aspects of migration and on information that is relevant for the six semi-arid countries that are the focus of the PRISE (Pathways to Resilience in Semi-Arid Economies) project: Burkina Faso, Senegal, Kenya, Tanzania, Pakistan and Tajikistan. Policy intervention is required to reduce potential negative impacts in both the sending and receiving region. Badly managed migration is associated with high economic, social and psychological costs. Key findings: To ensure effective migration choices and a good management of the wider socio-economic effects, policy-makers should: Provide sufficient information about the costs and benefits of migrating, including psychological and social, along with more clarity about alternative adaptation options. Release credit constraints, present in all PRISE countries and in particular in Senegal and Tajikistan, to offset the up-front costs incurred by potential migrants, particularly high in areas with poor transportation infrastructure. Improve institutional quality to ensure the incentives to migrate are not reduced, in particular in the context of land tenure security when people are not able to sell their land or are not confident of reclaiming it upon return. Define the legal status of environmental migrants, for example, through a process led by the UN or UNHCR, in order to give people certainty about their legal situation. Put in place safeguards against distress migration, for example in the event of conflict, which can force people to choose sub-optimal migration strategies, leading to maladaptation. Support the areas affected by outward migration by promoting links between migrants and their region of origin; “managed retreat” from severely affected regions may be a last resort if they become inhospitable. Support the absorptive capacity of the receiving jurisdictions, in particular urban labour markets and public services, to manage the socio-economic implications of the arrival of migrants in a new destination. Direct migrants away from environmentally vulnerable areas where they move to for different reasons, as is the case in Senegal where more than 40 per cent of new migrant populations are located in high risk flood zones

The long-run effects of missionary orders in Mexico

This paper examines the long-run effects of different Catholic missionary orders in colonial Mexico on educational outcomes and Catholicism. The main missionary orders in colonial Mexico were all Catholic, but they belonged to different monastic traditions and adhered to different values. Mendicant orders were committed to poverty and sought to reduce social inequality in colonial Mexico by educating the native population. The Jesuit order, by contrast, focused educational efforts on the colony's elite in the city centers, rather than on the native population in rural mission areas. Using a newly constructed data set of the locations of 1,145 missions in colonial Mexico, I test whether long-run development outcomes differ among areas that had Mendicant missions, Jesuit missions, or no missions. Results indicate that areas with historical Mendicant missions have higher present-day literacy rates, and higher rates of educational attainment at primary, secondary and post-secondary levels than regions without a mission. Results show that the share of Catholics is higher in regions where Catholic missions of any kind were a historical present. Additional results suggest that missionaries may have affected long-term development by impacting people's access to and valuation of education

Historical events and their effects on long-term economic and social development

This thesis uses econometric methods to examine the effects of historical events and developments on aspects of economic and social development. Its objective is two-fold: The thesis examines causes and effects of different historical events using econometric methods and newly constructed and newly available data sets. By studying these historical events, broader theoretical questions are addressed that are relevant and have implications for today. The first chapter studies the economic effects of the Little Ice Age, a climatic period that brought markedly colder conditions to large parts of Europe. The theoretical interest of this study lies in the question whether gradual temperature changes affect economic growth in the long-run, despite people’s efforts to adapt. This question is highly relevant in the current debate on the economic effects of climate change. Results show that the effect of temperature varies across climate zones, that temperature affected economic growth through its effect on agricultural productivity and that cities that were especially dependent on agriculture were especially affected. The second chapter examines the role of adverse climatic conditions on political protest. In particular, it assesses the role of adverse climate on the eve of the French Revolution on peasant uprisings in 1789. Historians have argued that crop failure in 1788 and cold weather in the winter of 1788/89 led to peasant revolts in various parts of France. I construct a cross section data set with information on temperature in 1788 and 1789 and on the precise location of peasant revolts. Results show that adverse climatic conditions significantly affected peasant uprisings. The third chapter examines the role of different Catholic missionary orders in colonial Mexico on long term educational outcomes. I construct a data set of the location of 1000 historical mission stations. I use OLS and instrumental variables estimation to show that only Mendicant mission stations have affected educational attainment while all orders affected conversion

The effects of climate change on migration – Maria Waldinger

Migration can take many forms, from economic to political to social. Environmental migration, when it occurs, often focuses upon those who relocate because of issues such as natural disasters. But it is equally important to consider those who decide to move because of gradual environment changes

Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change

The links between climate change, economic growth and economic development have gained increasing attention over recent years in both the academic and policy literature. However, most of the existing literature has tended to focus on direct, short run effects of climate change on the economy, for example due to extreme weather events and changes in agricultural growing conditions. In this paper we review potential effects of climate change on the prospects for long-run economic development. These effects might operate directly, via the role of geography (including climate) as a fundamental determinant of relative prosperity, or indirectly by modifying the environmental context in which political and economic institutions evolve. We consider potential mechanisms from climate change to long-run economic development that have been relatively neglected to date, including, for instance, effects on the distribution of income and political power. We conclude with some suggestions for areas of future research

Historical Missionary Activity, Schooling, and the Reversal of Fortunes: Evidence from Nigeria

This paper shows that historical missionary activity has had a persistent effect on schooling outcomes, and contributed to a reversal of fortunes wherein historically richer ethnic groups are poorer today. Combining contemporary individual-level data with a newly constructed dataset on mission stations in Nigeria, we find that individuals whose ancestors were exposed to greater missionary activity have higher levels of schooling. This effect is robust to omitted heterogeneity, ethnicity fixed effects, and reverse causation. We find inter-generational factors and the persistence of early advantages in educational infrastructure to be key channels through which the effect has persisted. Consistent with theory, the effect of missions on current schooling is larger for population subgroups that have historically suffered disadvantages in access to education

EU-Entwicklungspolitik und der Klimawandel

Die Unterzeichnung des Samoa-Abkommens im November 2023 markiert eine Ausweitung der Kernbereiche der EU-Entwicklungszusammenarbeit. Dieser Beitrag zeigt, auf welche Weise der Schwerpunktbereich Klimawandel alle anderen Kernziele des Samoa-Abkommens beeinflusst: nachhaltige Wirtschaftsentwicklung, menschliche und soziale Entwicklung, Frieden und Demokratie sowie Migration und Mobilität. Zwei Anpassungsmaßnahmen verdienen bei der Verfolgung dieser Ziele größeres Augenmerk: (i) Die EU-Entwicklungspolitik sollte Innovationen in Finanzierungsmechanismen für landwirtschaftliche Familienbetriebe unterstützen, um die negativen Auswirkungen klimatischer Einkommensschocks zu dämpfen. (ii) Ferner sollte die EU-Entwicklungszusammenarbeit den Ausbau von Transportinfrastruktur fördern, da offenerer Güterhandel und Personenverkehr effizienteren strukturellen Wandel im Zuge des Klimawandels ermöglichen

"Let Them Eat Cake": Drought, Peasant Uprisings, and Demand for Institutional Change in the French Revolution

The paper studies whether a drought in 1788 affected the outbreak of peasant revolts during the French Revolution. I construct a community-level data set with information on local drought severity and peasant uprisings in 1789. Results indicate that those more affected by the drought more often participated in peasant revolts against the feudal system. Then, I investigate a mechanism through which drought may have affected peasant revolts. I find that those more affected by the drought had higher demand for institutional change as expressed in the lists of grievances. The results provide evidence on specific ways in which the drought of 1788 impacted the French Revolution, a milestone in the democratization of Western Europe