The Delphi: An Underutilized Method of Scholarly and Practical Research for a Public Relations Field in Transition

This paper introduces, analyzes, and explains the Delphi method of research, particularly as it applies to certain aspects of the public relations industry. The Delphi technique became known some fifty years ago when the Rand Corporation used it extensively for forecasting. Since then, scholars and forecasters have used it periodically for early, qualitative explorations into complex issues or domains. The overall purpose of the Delphi is to facilitate formal discussion among selected experts in a given domain around a particular topic; it is particularly useful when those experts cannot easily come together in one place. The method encourages the sharing of diverging worldviews over a few “rounds” or iterations in the hope that the views may converge into some direction around the given topic. For this reason, the Delphi has often been used in situations or environments that tend to be somewhat ambiguous and where interviews and surveys are neither timely nor appropriate. Public relations scholars started incorporating the Delphi method into their research in the late 1980s, and the technique has since been employed to explore broad-ranging issues among experts on at least seven or eight occasions. It has also been used to explore ethical norms. However, public relations literature contains little discussion about the technique and its possible applications or implications for developing knowledge in the field. This paper, then, is intended to dissect the Delphi method so as to offer guidance to public relations scholars who may wish to use it in future studies. The authors, both of whom have conducted Delphi studies, believe that the method is valuable in examining topics that are emerging or underdeveloped in the field; however, certain precautions are necessary in order to ensure that the research achieves the desired effects. The paper is created through a literature review of similar articles on Delphi studies in other domains, notably health communications, followed by an examination of some studies conducted to advance issues in public relations. The authors explore the most appropriate situations for using a Delphi and list the benefits and disbenefits of different aspects or applications of the method. They trace the evolution of Delphi research from its early roots into the era of the Internet and social media, which offer new tools for increasing the number of respondents and moving through the Delphi process more quickly than could previously be done. In advancing such an examination of the Delphi, this paper should be a useful addition to emerging public relations literature

Tax reform and retirement saving incentives: evidence from the introduction of stakeholder pensions in the UK

Faced with ageing populations, OECD governments are seeking policies to increase individual retirement saving. In April 2001, the UK government introduced Stakeholder Pensions – a low cost retirement saving vehicle. The reform also changed the structure of tax-relieved contribution ceilings, increasing their generosity for lower earning individuals. We examine the impact of these changes on private pension coverage and on contributions to personal pension accounts using individual level micro data. We use a difference-in-differences strategy, and where necessary our estimator is modified to allow for dichotomous outcomes. The results suggest that the change to the contribution ceilings affected both coverage rates and contributions to private pensions among lower earnings individuals, especially among women, and those in couples

The importance of incentives in influencing private retirement saving: known knowns and known unknowns

We summarise what economic theory predicts about how retirement savings decisions are affected by marginal withdrawal rates created by the tax, tax credit and benefit system, and by the information individuals are provided with. All these predictions vary across individuals with their circumstances. In documenting the incentives to save in a private pension provided by the tax, tax credit and benefit system we show that some individuals face a very strong incentive to place funds in a private pension at particular times during their working lives. Those who are basic rate taxpayers who expect to become higher rate taxpayers or move onto the taper of the Working Tax Credit have an incentive to delay making any private pension contributions until that time, while those expecting to move off that taper have an incentive to bring forward future pension contributions. When examining retirement saving it is important to consider both saving decisions and also the choice of retirement age. We cite previous evidence that both of these margins have been adjusted by individuals in the light of changed financial incentives. In particular there is evidence that spending by working age individuals was increased in the light of the introduction of the State Earnings-Related Pension Scheme. In addition evidence from West Germany and the United States shows that individuals' retirement ages can be affected substantially by changing financial incentives. There is less evidence of reduced spending by working age individuals in the light of the decision to index the Basic State Pension in line with prices rather than the greater of prices or earnings. New evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing shows that it is low and high wealth individuals who are most likely to be out of the labour market prior to the State Pension Age, though often for very different stated reasons. This suggests that if retirement incomes of those with low wealth are to be increased then increased labour market participation is perhaps a margin for them to adjust. Incentives to work and save are potentially affected by two recent UK reforms: the introduction of the two new tax credits (Working Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit) and the introduction of the Pension Credit. We present some preliminary evidence on whether the strong incentive to contribute to a private pension provided by the two new tax credits has boosted private pension participation, the results of which are somewhat inconclusive and are worthy of further research. Examining the distribution of current pensioner incomes with respect to the incentives induced by the Pension Credit reform we find that many single pensioners will see an unambiguous increase in the incentive to increase their private retirement income -- for example through increased saving or later retirement. There are still large numbers of single pensioners who see a reduction in the incentive to increase their retirement income, the majority of whom have private income which they might decide to reduce. Fewer individuals in pensioner couples are eligible for the Pension Credit. Despite this we find that a similar proportion faces a reduced incentive to acquire greater income as we did for single pensioners. If the expectations of individuals do not reflect the current rules of the system, then we cannot expect to observe responses fully in line with economic theory that is predicated on full information. Recent evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing suggests that on average individuals underestimate their longevity and overestimate the private pension income that they can expect to receive. On the other hand, expectations of being in paid employment at older ages are, on average, similar to the current proportions of older individuals who are in paid work and individuals' expectations of remaining in the labour market at older ages appear to square up with the marginal financial incentives to remain in work that are created by different types of pension scheme

Ill-health and retirement in Britain: a panel data-based analysis

We examine the role of ill-health in retirement decisions in Britain, using the first eight waves of the British Household Panel Survey (1991-98). As self-reported health status is likely to be endogenous to the retirement decision, we instrument self-reported health by a constructed ‘health stock’ measure using a set of health indicator variables and personal characteristics, as suggested by Bound et al (1999). Using both linear and non-linear fixed effects estimators, we show that adverse individual health shocks are an important predictor of individual retirement behaviour. We compare the impact of our constructed health measure on economic activity with that arising from the use of other health variables in the data set. We also examine the impact of the 1995 reform of disability benefits on the retirement decision

Restricted Covariance Priors with Applications in Spatial Statistics

We present a Bayesian model for area-level count data that uses Gaussian random effects with a novel type of G-Wishart prior on the inverse variance--covariance matrix. Specifically, we introduce a new distribution called the truncated G-Wishart distribution that has support over precision matrices that lead to positive associations between the random effects of neighboring regions while preserving conditional independence of non-neighboring regions. We describe Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms for the truncated G-Wishart prior in a disease mapping context and compare our results to Bayesian hierarchical models based on intrinsic autoregression priors. A simulation study illustrates that using the truncated G-Wishart prior improves over the intrinsic autoregressive priors when there are discontinuities in the disease risk surface. The new model is applied to an analysis of cancer incidence data in Washington State.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-BA927 in the Bayesian Analysis (http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ba) by the International Society of Bayesian Analysis (http://bayesian.org/

House Prices and Home Ownership: a Cohort Analysis

England has very volatile house prices. We use pseudo-panel data spanning multiple house-price cycles over nearly forty years, to assess the extent to which house prices affect access to homeownership by age thirty, and whether differences in ownership rates persist. We find that ownership rates at age thirty have varied substantially, with this variation significantly related to prices. Measurement error problems – attenuation bias and other biases - complicate an analysis of the persistence of these differences in ownership. We use two methods - including one that develops the ideas of Deaton (1985) - to deal with this and find robust evidence that cohorts with low ownership rates at thirty close about 80% of the ownership gap by age forty.

Assessing Shoreline Change and Vegetation Cover Adjacent to Back-Barrier Shoreline Stabilization Structures in Georgia Estuaries

Anthropogenic stabilization of erosional shorelines by hard-armoring structures is used for protection of property, especially if buildings, historical monuments, cultural resources, or other infrastructure are present. The post-installation effects of shoreline stabilization structures on adjacent shorelines in the back-barrier marshes of coastal Georgia are a concern, and interest in living shorelines as erosion control devices has increased because of their use of natural materials and vegetation. AMBUR shoreline analysis software was used to calculate pre-and post-installation shoreline change rates of shorelines adjacent to riprap and bulkhead structures. There was no significant difference between the post-installation shoreline change rates of the structures, but individually there is erosion immediately adjacent to four of the structures after installation (the end-around effect). Vegetation percent cover, stem height, and stem densities were measured in addition to shoreline change rates. Analysis of vegetation showed similarities between shorelines adjacent to living shorelines and control sites. There are significant differences in to vegetation cover between riprap structures and the control sites, and these results showed that installation of riprap structures significantly changes the vegetation cover of the adjacent, unprotected shorelines. These results provide novel methodologies and initial data for determining the influence of erosion control structures on back-barrier shorelines. The researcher identified limitations with available data sets and supplied needed results to researchers for future study and to coastal managers for better informed decision making about the effects of shoreline stabilization structures on adjacent shorelines

Thanks, but no thanks: women's avoidance of help-seeking in the context of a dependency-related stereotype

The stereotype that women are dependent on men is a commonly verbalized, potentially damaging aspect of benevolent sexism. We investigated how women may use behavioral disconfirmation of the personal applicability of the stereotype to negotiate such sexism. In an experiment (N = 86), we manipulated female college students’ awareness that women may be stereotyped by men as dependent. We then placed participants in a situation where they needed help. Women made aware of the dependency stereotype (compared to controls who were not) were less willing to seek help. They also displayed a stronger negative correlation between help-seeking and post help-seeking affect - such that the more help they sought, the worse they felt. We discuss the relevance of these findings for research concerning women’s help-seeking and their management of sexist stereotyping in everyday interaction. We also consider the implications of our results for those working in domains such as healthcare, teaching and counseling, where interaction with individuals in need and requiring help is common

Actualism and its author: Prospects for the future of Gentile Studies

This article describes the recent reception of Giovanni Gentile and his doctrine of actualism, describing the philosopher's rehabilitation as a major Italian thinker and actualism as a provocative account of socially situated consciousness. The discussion then turns to the future of Gentile studies, focusing on ways in which the ahistorical methods of analytic philosophy might help restore actualism and its author to their proper place in the philosophical canon