The transportation sector and low-carbon growth pathways: modeling urban, infrastructure and spatial determinants of mobility

International audienceThere is still a controversy as to the effect of spatial organization on CO2 emissions. This paper contributes to this debate by investigating the potentials offered by infrastructure measures favoring lower mobility in the transition to a low-carbon economy. This is done by embarking a detailed description of passenger and freight transportation in an energy-economy-environment (E3) model. In addition to the standard representation of transport technologies, this framework considers explicitly the "behavioural" determinants of mobility that drive the demand for transport but are often disregarded in mitigation assessments: constrained mobility needs (essentially commuting) imposed by the spatial organization of residence and production, modal choices triggered by installed infrastructure and the freight transport intensity of production processes. This study demonstrates that the implementation of measures fostering a modal shift towards low-carbon modes and a decoupling of mobility needs from economic activity significantly modifies the sectoral distribution of mitigation efforts and reduces the carbon tax levels necessary to reach a given climate target relatively to a "carbon price only" policy. This result is robust to a wide range of assumptions about exogenous parameters

Urbanization and low-carbon growth pathways : Modeling the interactions between energy and real estate prices

International audienceThis presentation proposes a framework for thinking the role of urban dynamics in the transition towards low-carbon societies. This is done by capturing both the driving effect of macroeconomic trends on urban dynamics and, conversely, the consequences of urban/regional location choices on mobility needs, investments and production possibilities affecting macroeconomic trajectories and carbon emissions. In an integrated description of global macroeconomic trajectories and location decisions in multiple agglomerations, we reassess the cost of climate policies when considering not only their global dimensions captured by carbon and energy prices, but also their local determinants associated to the spatial organization in urban areas. Among the latter, we focus more specifically on the interplay between constrained mobility needs corresponding to daily commuting distances, investment constraints due to housing and transport infrastructure deployment and land prices capturing the competition for different locations within agglomerations

Monetary compensations in climate policy through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment The case of oil-exporting countries

International audienceThis paper investigates the compensations that major oil producers have claimed for since the Kyoto Protocol in order to alleviate the adverse impacts of climate policy on their economies. The amount of these adverse impacts is assessed through a general equilibrium model which endogenizes both the reduction of oil exportation revenues under international climate policy and the macroeconomic effect of carbon pricing on Middle-East's economy. We show that compensating the drop of exportation revenues does not offset GDP and welfare losses because of the time profile of the general equilibrium effects. When considering instead compensation based on GDP losses, the effectiveness of monetary transfers proves to be drastically limited by general equilibrium effects in opened economies. The main channels of this efficiency gap are investigated and its magnitude proves to be conditional upon strategic and policy choices of the Middle-East. This leads us to suggest that other means than direct monetary compensating transfers should be discussed to engage the Middle-East in climate policies

Impacts environnementaux de la mobilité des marchandises : Maîtrise en amont des flux de transport par une réorganisation des systèmes logistiques

Alors que des efforts importants de réduction des nuisances sont envisagés danscertains secteurs de l'économie (comme l'industrie qui est au cœur du processus de Kyoto), letransport apparaît comme un enjeu essentiel des politiques de développement durable dans les20 prochaines années. Plus précisément, la première partie de ce rapport a permis de soulignerle rôle croissant de la mobilité du fret dans les nuisances dues au transport, les évolutionsprévues du transport de marchandises s'inscrivant dans un contexte d'explosion des trafics etdes pollutions associées.L'orientation choisie ici cherche à aborder le problème beaucoup plus en amont enconsidérant que les entreprises sont des acteurs économiques qui adaptent leur mode defonctionnement en fonction de signaux qu'ils reçoivent : le système de production/distributionest une variable endogène qui peut évoluer. Comme l'organisation logistique est le paramètrequi structure les flux de marchandises en fonction des contraintes imposées, l'idée est alors dedévelopper un scénario de remise en cause des logiques actuelles qui permettrait unererégionalisation de la production et une maîtrise en amont de la demande de transporttransport de marchandises; logistique; développement durable

Populismos del norte y del sur: incorporación vs. defensa social

In a large parte of Western and Central Europe, political parties characterized as «populists» are, or are becoming, major competitors for government power. Given this situation, the article intends, on the one hand, to propose a typology of populist institutional regimes or programs, with emphasis on the common properties of the different types. On the other hand, discuss their generative contexts, and propose two propositions: i) that it is very likely that the configuration of factors conducive to populism will become stable in the North and remain recurrent in the South; and, ii) that the probability of more or less permanent institutionalization of these regimes is greater in the South than in the North, due to the differential robustness of the republican political institutions. Ultimately, both capitalism and democratic political institutions will suffer of strong pressures. As a result, together with innovative forms of open market economy and republican democracy, new kinds of state capitalism and elective authoritarianism will be instituzionalized in many countries. If this hypothesis is correct, populist regimes will therefore be only transitional.En gran parte de Europa Occidental y Central, partidos políticos caracterizados como “populistas” son, o están pasando a ser, competidores principales por el poder. Ante esta situación el artículo pretende, por un lado, proponer una tipología de regímenes o programas institucionales populistas, con énfasis en las propiedades comunes de los distintos tipos. Por otro lado, discutir sus contextos generativos y plantear dos proposiciones: i) que es muy probable que la configuración de factores conducentes al populismo se convierta en estable en el Norte y sigan siendo recurrente en el Sur; y ii) que la probabilidad de institucionalización más o menos permanente de estos regímenes sea mayor en el Sur que en el Norte, por la robustez diferencial de las instituciones políticas republicanas. En definitiva, tanto el capitalismo como las instituciones políticas democráticas estarán sujetos a fortísimas presiones, dando como resultado que, junto con formas novedosas de economía abierta de mercado y de democracia republicana, se institucionalicen en muchos países variedades del capitalismo de estado y el autoritarismo electivo. Si esta hipótesis es correcta, los regímenes populistas serán, por lo tanto, solo transicionales.In a large parte of Western and Central Europe, political parties characterized as «populists» are, or are becoming, major competitors for government power. Given this situation, the article intends, on the one hand, to propose a typology of populist institutional regimes or programs, with emphasis on the common properties of the different types. On the other hand, discuss their generative contexts, and propose two propositions: i) that it is very likely that the configuration of factors conducive to populism will become stable in the North and remain recurrent in the South; and, ii) that the probability of more or less permanent institutionalization of these regimes is greater in the South than in the North, due to the differential robustness of the republican political institutions. Ultimately, both capitalism and democratic political institutions will suffer of strong pressures. As a result, together with innovative forms of open market economy and republican democracy, new kinds of state capitalism and elective authoritarianism will be instituzionalized in many countries. If this hypothesis is correct, populist regimes will therefore be only transitional

ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF CLIMATE ACTION: THE URBAN DIMENSION

The benefit of implementing urban policies to tackle climate change is demonstrated in this chapter. The traditional trade-off between economic growth and environmental objective observed at a macroeconomic level, referred to as abatement costs for climate change policies, can be alleviated when urban policies such as densification or a congestion charges are being introduced. This is the result of a general equilibrium model that incorporates an urban module. Under a baseline global scenario with Kyoto emissions reduction objectives, the overall economic costs can be reduced over time thanks to additional actions taken at the local level. This is due to complementaries with other objectives such as lower local pollution which enhances city attractiveness and competitiveness. The section also discusses other types of local co-benefits of climate change policies including, health improvements and quality of life, cost savings and increased efficiency, as well as energy security and infrastructure improvements

Sustainability, Globalization, and the Energy Sector Europe in a Global Perspective

International audienceThis paper analyzes the socio-economic effects of energy sustainability challenges raised by oil depletion and climate change at the European and global level. We assess macroeconomic impacts at different time horizons over 2010-2100 and under different visions of the future of globalization . Fragmented capital markets affect the pace and direction of change and induce additional economic losses in the long term. Regionalized good markets have a positive effect in the long term since less intense international trade moderates the effects of fossil fuel constraints. A sustainable energy future will require implementing policies and measures that are able to (i) provide correct incentives for long-term investments by resorting to other signals than current market prices, (ii) incorporate sectoral measures that act complementarily to pricing schemes measures for sectors confronted with biased agents’ behaviors or strong inertias, (iii) foster globalization patterns that are consistent with energy sustainability objectives. The challenge consists in articulating the objectives and the instruments of these different policy and measures triggering the transition towards sustainable future

Prospective quantitative des dynamiques urbaines: Enjeux, obstacles et leviers de la ville " post-carbone "

This study presents the technological, organizational and macroeconomic contexts of the six transition scenarios to post carbon cities as defined in the program "Repenser des villes dans une société post-carbone" (CGDD-ADEME) . The results illustrate the need to act quickly to deal with the inertia of urban systems to allow a greater emissions reduction by 2050, and higher average growth over the next 50 years. For example, the introduction of a faster carbon tax allows a higher emission reduction of nearly 20 points and higher growth rate around 0.05 points. However, the pace of government action is not the only important variable. Acting on price signals only cannot achieve the goal of reducing emissions by a factor four by 2050. Actions on the price of carbon should be accompanied by measures of infrastructure (housing, transportation, energy production) , but also norms that affect urban form (urban tolls, densification). Finally, rethinking development patterns seems necessary to establish a post-carbon society. Economic tools as used in this report can highlight the objectives, but can hardly trace the path to achieve them. The transition to a post-carbon society must be guided by the entire scientific community, whether in the field of innovation technology or social sciences

Les actions locales dans la transition postcarbone: Une simulation des effets macroéconomiques

National audienceCe papier analyse le rôle de politiques menées à l'échelle locale pour accompagner la transition post-carbone en complément des mesures globales conventionnellement envisagées. De telles mesures sont particulièrement justifiées pour contrôler les émissions liées au transport en permettant un contrôle des besoins de mobilité et du report modal. L'analyse de ces effets est menée via un cadre de modélisation innovant permettant de représenter de façon cohérente les trajectoires économiques de long terme et les dynamiques urbaines sous-jacentes. Cet outil est utilisé sur la France pour quantifier les scénarios prospectifs définis dans le cadre du programme " Repenser les villes dans une société post-carbone ", copiloté par la mission prospective du CGDD - MEEDDM et le Service Économie et Prospective de l'ADEME. Ils permettent de démontrer l'importance de la distribution des investissements à l'échelle locale sur la nature de la transition post-carbone, que ce soit en termes de dynamiques locales (forme des villes, coûts urbains) ou des tendances nationales (PIB, émissions de carbone). Cette étude permet de mettre en avant trois dimensions cruciales à l'échelle locale pour la transition post-carbone : les effets d'agglomération et les liens entre productivité et densité ; l'articulation entre différents niveaux de gouvernance pour combiner mesures locales et globales ; l'hétérogénéité du tempo de l'action qui force à penser le tuilage temporel des mesures à court-terme et long-terme