The Changing Cyclical Responsiveness of Wage Inflation

macroeconomics, wage inflation, cyclical responsiveness

Intermediate Swings in Labor-Force Participation

macroeconomics, labor force

The Wage Process: An Analysis of the Early 1970s

macroeconomics, wages, 1970s

Union Threat Effects and Nonunion Industry Wage Differentials

We investigate the impact of union strength on changes in nonunion wages and employment. The prevailing model in this area is the threat model, which predicts that increases in union strength cause increases in nonunion wages and decreases in nonunion employment. In testing the threat model, we are also testing two alternatives, the crowding and complements models. In contrast to the prediction of the threat model, decreases in the percent organized (reflecting a declining union threat) are associated with increases in the nonunion wage. Furthermore, increases in union wages appear to decrease, rather than to increase, nonunion wages. Evidence on the determinants of intra-industry variation in nonunion wage premia is somewhat more consistent with the crowding model and is strikingly consistent with the complements model of union and nonunion wage determination. Further evidence on the determinants of intra-industry variation in nonunion employment is consistent with the complements model and the threat model; movements in nonunion industry employment are negatively related to changes in proxies for union strength. Thus, the combined evidence supports the complements model, but neither the threat model nor the crowding model.

Time Series Changes in Youth Joblessness

This study presents a time series analysis of the youth unemployment problem stressing the cohort overcrowding effect, a result of the baby-boom induced imbalance between younger and older workers. Several techniques are used to study the problem. First, reduced form unemployment equations are estimated for the disaggregated youth groups. The results indicate that secular swings in female and white youth unemployment rates do track well with the cohort imbalance hypothesis. However, relative increases in black male unemployment remain unexplained by this model. Second, alternative measures of youth unemployment are developed by treating school enrollment and military service as equivalent to employment. In addition, several employment-to-population ratio measures are explored. Third, equations for employment, unemployment, schooling and a residual category are estimated together. This allows one to analyze flows into and out of the four states with respect to changes in explanatory variables. The results suggest that youth unemployment rates, with the exception of the black male group, peaked in relative terms in the early l970s. A detailed analysis of the declining labor market position of blacks, however, uncovers puzzling results. Although black male unemployment rates are growing, and employment rates are declining, relative wages and school enrollment rates are increasing. In fact, at least half of the decline in black employment ratios can be associated with increasing school enrollment rates.

Norm Shifts in Union Wages: Will 1989 Be a Replay of 1969?

macroeconomics, union wages, 1989

Comments and Discussion [Union Wage Determination: Policy Implications and Outlook]

macroeconomics, wage determination, inflation, unions

Judging Unions\u27 Future Using a Historical Perspective: The Public Policy Choice Between Competition and Unionization

In this paper I look at unions\u27 future using a historical perspective and focusing on the period of union ascendancy as well as the past few decades when unions have been in decline. We know trends currently in place are unfavorable to unions. What conditions would be favorable? The rise of unions from the 1930s through the early 1950s was due to the convergence of a number of events - an economic policy that attempted to restrict competition beginning in the 1930s, the twin beliefs that labor markets were inherently noncompetitive and/or that individual workplaces were exploitative, and low union premiums. The passage of highly favorable legislation, in the form of the Wagner Act, was a reflection of the idea that unions could actually improve the functioning of labor markets and serve as a countervailing power to big business. Over the past several decades, union density declined because government policy became pro-competitive, it became clearer that labor markets were relatively competitive, HR practices developed that reduced the amount of opportunistic behavior of employers, and unions increased the percentage premium they enjoyed in industries where rents were available. In this environment, the public-good aspect of labor unions - their ability to improve the functioning of labor markets - was called into question. The passage of amendments to the NLRA that were unfavorable to unions was a reflection of this changed sentiment as to the public good aspect of unions as well as to the adoption of pro-competitive market policies in general. Consequently the future trend in union density will depend on the competitiveness of the economy and on the related question of the number of opportunities for unions to fulfill their major goal of either extracting economic rents or remedying market failures that result in exploitative employment relationships