Trends in ozone and temperature structure: comparison of theory and measurements

Comparison of model calculated trends in ozone and temperature due to inferred variations in trace gas concentrations and solar flux, is made with available analyses of observations. In general, the calculated trends in total ozone and the vertical ozone distribution agree well with the measured trends. However, there are too many remaining theoretical and sampling uncertainties to establish causality. Although qualitatively in agreement, the observed temperature decrease in the upper stratosphere is significantly larger than that calculated. Theoretical results suggest a significant influence on stratospheric ozone from solar flux variations, but observational evidence is at best inconclusive. Overall, the trend comparisons tend to be consistent with the hypothesis that several different anthropogenic influences are affecting the present global atmosphere. 7 references, 3 figures, 2 tables

Summary of the LLNL one-dimensional transport-kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere: 1981

Since the LLNL one-dimensional coupled transport and chemical kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere was originally developed in 1972 (Chang et al., 1974), there have been many changes to the model's representation of atmospheric physical and chemical processes. A brief description is given of the current LLNL one-dimensional coupled transport and chemical kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere

Treatment of dynamical processes in two-dimensional models of the troposphere and stratosphere

The physical structure of the troposphere and stratosphere is the result of an intricate interplay among a large number of radiative, chemical, and dynamical processes. Because it is not possible to model the global environment in the laboratory, theoretical models must be relied on, subject to observational verification, to simulate atmospheric processes. Of particular concern in recent years has been the modeling of those processes affecting the structure of ozone and other trace species in the stratosphere and troposphere. Zonally averaged two-dimensional models with spatial resolution in the vertical and meridional directions can provide a much more realistic representation of tracer transport than one-dimensional models, yet are capable of the detailed representation of chemical and radiative processes contained in the one-dimensional models. The purpose of this study is to describe and analyze existing approaches to representing global atmospheric transport processes in two-dimensional models and to discuss possible alternatives to these approaches. A general description of the processes controlling the transport of trace constituents in the troposphere and stratosphere is given

A two dimensional modeling study of the sensitivity of ozone to radiative flux uncertainties

Radiative processes strongly effect equilibrium trace gas concentrations both directly, through photolysis reactions, and indirectly through temperature and transport processes. We have used the LLNL 2-D chemical-radiative-transport model to investigate the net sensitivity of equilibrium ozone concentrations to several changes in radiative forcing. Doubling CO/sub 2/ from 300 ppmv to 600 ppmv resulted in a temperature decrease of 5 K to 8 K in the middle stratosphere along with an 8% to 16% increase in ozone in the same region. Replacing our usual shortwave scattering algorithms with a simplified Rayleigh algorithm led to a 1% to 2% increase in ozone in the lower stratosphere. Finally, modifying our normal CO/sub 2/ cooling rates by corrections derived from line-by-line calculations resulted in several regions of heating and cooling. We observed temperature changes on the order of 1 K to 1.5 K with corresponding changes of 0.5% to 1.5% in O/sub 3/. Our results for doubled CO/sub 2/ compare favorably with those by other authors. Results for our two perturbation scenarios stress the need for accurately modeling radiative processes while confirming the general validity of current models. 15 refs., 5 figs

Sensitivity of stratospheric ozone to present and possible future aircraft emissions

The aircraft industry is showing renewed interest in the development of supersonic, high flying aircraft for intercontinental passenger flights. There appears to be confidence that such high-speed civil transports can be designed, and that aircraft will be economically viable as long as they are also environmentally acceptable. As such, it is important to establish the potential for such environmental problems early in the aircraft design. Initial studies with LLNL models of global atmospheric chemical, radiative, and transport processes have indicated that substantial decreases in stratospheric ozone concentrations could result from emissions of NO{sub x} from aircraft flying the stratosphere, depending on the fleet size and magnitude of the engine emissions. The purpose of this study is to build on previous analyses of potential aircraft emission effects on ozone in order to better define the sensitivity of ozone to such emissions. In addition to NO{sub x}, the effects of potential emissions of carbon monoxide and water vapor are also examined. More realistic scenarios for the emissions as a function of altitude, latitude, and season are examined in comparison to prior analyses. These studies indicate that the effects on ozone are sensitive to the altitude and latitude, as well as the magnitude, of the emissions

Production of NO by galactic cosmic rays and lightning

As part of the ongoing development of the LLNL 2-D Stratospheric Transport-Kinetics Model, values for NO production rates due to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and lightning have been calculated. With the combined NO production rates from GCRs and lightning included in the LLNL 2-D model, we compared our predicted NO/sub y/ mixing ratios with those from LIMS (Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere) data and other models. Although our predicted NO/sub y/ mixing ratios are lower than the LIMS data at 16 mb and 30 mb, our values at these pressures are generally higher and in better agreement with LIMS than are the corresponding mixing ratios from other models. Further research is needed on the sensitivity of these results to changes in model transport processes. 12 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs

Summary of photochemical and radiative data used in the LLNL one-dimensional transport-kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere: 1982

This report summarizes the contents and sources of the photochemical and radiative segment of the LLNL one-dimensional transport-kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere. Data include the solar flux incident at the top of the atmosphere, absorption spectra for O/sub 2/, O/sub 3/ and NO/sub 2/, and effective absorption coefficients for about 40 photolytic processes as functions of wavelength and, in a few cases, temperature and pressure. The current data set represents understanding of atmospheric photochemical processes as of late 1982 and relies largely on NASA Evaluation Number 5 of Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modeling, JPL Publication 82-57 (DeMore et al., 1982). Implementation in the model, including the treatment of multiple scattering and cloud cover, is discussed in Wuebbles (1981)

A two-dimensional model study of past trends in global ozone

Emissions and atmospheric concentrations of several trace gases important to atmospheric chemistry are known to have increased substantially over recent decades. Solar flux variations and the atmospheric nuclear test series are also likely to have affected stratospheric ozone. In this study, the LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the troposphere and stratosphere has been applied to an analysis of the effects that these natural and anthropogenic influences may have had on global ozone concentrations over the last three decades. In general, model determined species distributions and the derived ozone trends agree well with published analyses of land-based and satellite-based observations. Also, the total ozone and ozone distribution trends derived from CFC and other trace gas effects have a different response with latitude than the derived trends from solar flux variations, thus providing a ''signature'' for anthropogenic effects on ozone. 24 refs., 5 figs