The Maternal and Neonatal Programme Effort Index (MNPI).

A new index is presented that measures the effort levels of national programmes to reduce maternal and neonatal mortality. These indices come from a questionnaire instrument composed of 14 major headings and 81 items. Forty-nine countries including most of the population in each geographical region are covered. Data were collected from 10 to 25 raters in each country, who rated the 81 items for both the current year and 3 years ago, using a 0-5 scale running from no adequacy to full adequacy. The raters were drawn from a variety of positions and backgrounds, and were identified by a consultant retained in each country for that purpose. On average, country programmes score at about half of the maximum score, but this varies considerably across the 14 components of effort, from very low scores for access to treatment by rural women, to high scores for neonatal care. Regional averages are not far apart for the overall score, although South Asia scores are especially low and East Asia's are especially high. To a considerable extent regions agree in the relative stress they give to each of the 14 components. Over the 3-year period, average scores rose by about 10%. When countries are divided into three groups by their maternal mortality levels, most of the 14 components distinguish the high from the medium mortality countries; and about half of the components distinguish the medium from the low mortality countries. This new Maternal and Neonatal Programme Effort Index (MNPI) appears to yield useful measures for various dimensions of programme effort, and it relates sensibly to the output measure of maternal mortality, at least as it is currently measured

An econometric analysis of the determinants of fertility for China, 1952-2000

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952-2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10-12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development - consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis - played a key role in China's fertility transition.Paresh Kumar Narayan & Xiujian Pen