Systematic review of interventions for children with Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Children with Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders (FASD) may have significant neurobehavioural problems persisting into adulthood. Early diagnosis may decrease the risk of adverse life outcomes. However, little is known about effective interventions for children with FASD. Our aim is to conduct a systematic review of the literature to identify and evaluate the evidence for pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions for children with FASD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We did an electronic search of the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, CINAHL and ERIC for clinical studies (Randomized controlled trials (RCT), quasi RCT, controlled trials and pre- and post-intervention studies) which evaluated pharmacological, behavioural, speech therapy, occupational therapy, physiotherapy, psychosocial and educational interventions and early intervention programs. Participants were aged under 18 years with a diagnosis of a FASD. Selection of studies for inclusion and assessment of study quality was undertaken independently by two reviewers. Meta-analysis was not possible due to diversity in the interventions and outcome measures.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twelve studies met the inclusion criteria. Methodological weaknesses were common, including small sample sizes; inadequate study design and short term follow up. Pharmacological interventions, evaluated in two studies (both RCT) showed some benefit from stimulant medications. Educational and learning strategies (three RCT) were evaluated in seven studies. There was some evidence to suggest that virtual reality training, cognitive control therapy, language and literacy therapy, mathematics intervention and rehearsal training for memory may be beneficial strategies. Three studies evaluating social communication and behavioural strategies (two RCT) suggested that social skills training may improve social skills and behaviour at home and Attention Process Training may improve attention.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There is limited good quality evidence for specific interventions for managing FASD, however seven randomized controlled trials that address specific functional deficits of children with FASD are underway or recently completed.</p

Estimating Individual and Household Reproduction Numbers in an Emerging Epidemic

Reproduction numbers, defined as averages of the number of people infected by a typical case, play a central role in tracking infectious disease outbreaks. The aim of this paper is to develop methods for estimating reproduction numbers which are simple enough that they could be applied with limited data or in real time during an outbreak. I present a new estimator for the individual reproduction number, which describes the state of the epidemic at a point in time rather than tracking individuals over time, and discuss some potential benefits. Then, to capture more of the detail that micro-simulations have shown is important in outbreak dynamics, I analyse a model of transmission within and between households, and develop a method to estimate the household reproduction number, defined as the number of households infected by each infected household. This method is validated by numerical simulations of the spread of influenza and measles using historical data, and estimates are obtained for would-be emerging epidemics of these viruses. I argue that the household reproduction number is useful in assessing the impact of measures that target the household for isolation, quarantine, vaccination or prophylactic treatment, and measures such as social distancing and school or workplace closures which limit between-household transmission, all of which play a key role in current thinking on future infectious disease mitigation

Drug-prescribing patterns during pregnancy in the tertiary care hospitals of Pakistan: a cross sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The rationale for use of drugs during pregnancy requires a careful assessment as in addition to the mother, the health and life of her unborn child is also at stake. Information on the use of drugs during pregnancy is not available in Pakistan. The aim of this study was to evaluate the patterns of drug prescriptions to pregnant women in tertiary care hospitals of Pakistan.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a cross-sectional study conducted at five tertiary care hospitals of Pakistan. Copies of outpatient medicinal prescriptions given to pregnant patients attending the antenatal clinics were collected. The drugs were classified according to the pharmacological class and their teratogenic potential.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All the pregnant women attending the antenatal clinics received a prescription containing at least one drug. A total of 3769 distinct prescriptions given to different women were collected. Majority of the women who received the prescriptions belonged to third trimester (55.4%) followed by second (33.6%) and first trimester (11.0%). On an average, each prescription contained 1.66 ± 0.14 drugs. The obstetricians at Civil Hospital, Karachi and Chandka Medical College Hospital, Larkana showed a tendency of prescribing lesser number of drugs compared to those in other hospitals. Anti-anemic drugs including iron preparations and vitamin and mineral supplements (79.4%) were the most frequently prescribed drugs followed by analgesics (6.2%) and anti-bacterials (2.2%). 739 women (19.6%) received prescriptions containing drugs other than vitamin or mineral supplements. Only 1275 (21.6%) of all the prescribed drugs (n = 6100) were outside this vitamin/mineral supplement class. Out of these 1275 drugs, 29 (2.3%) drugs were prescribed which are considered to be teratogenic. Misoprostol was the most frequently prescribed (n = 6) among the teratogenic drugs followed by carbimazole (n = 5) and methotrexate (n = 5). Twenty nine pregnant women (0.8% of all the women studied) were prescribed these teratogenic drugs.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Less than one percent of the pregnant women attending tertiary care hospitals in Pakistan are prescribed teratogenic drugs. The prescribing practices of Pakistani physicians are similar to those in western countries.</p

A mechanistic model of infection: why duration and intensity of contacts should be included in models of disease spread

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mathematical models and simulations of disease spread often assume a constant per-contact transmission probability. This assumption ignores the heterogeneity in transmission probabilities, e.g. due to the varying intensity and duration of potentially contagious contacts. Ignoring such heterogeneities might lead to erroneous conclusions from simulation results. In this paper, we show how a mechanistic model of disease transmission differs from this commonly used assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We present an exposure-based, mechanistic model of disease transmission that reflects heterogeneities in contact duration and intensity. Based on empirical contact data, we calculate the expected number of secondary cases induced by an infector (i) for the mechanistic model and (ii) under the classical assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. The results of both approaches are compared for different basic reproduction numbers <it>R</it>₀.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The outcomes of the mechanistic model differ significantly from those of the assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. In particular, cases with many different contacts have much lower expected numbers of secondary cases when using the mechanistic model instead of the common assumption. This is due to the fact that the proportion of long, intensive contacts decreases in the contact dataset with an increasing total number of contacts.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The importance of highly connected individuals, so-called super-spreaders, for disease spread seems to be overestimated when a constant per-contact transmission probability is assumed. This holds particularly for diseases with low basic reproduction numbers. Simulations of disease spread should weight contacts by duration and intensity.</p

Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: insights into the future of swine flu (H1N1)

Here we present a review of the literature of influenza modeling studies, and discuss how these models can provide insights into the future of the currently circulating novel strain of influenza A (H1N1), formerly known as swine flu. We discuss how the feasibility of controlling an epidemic critically depends on the value of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0). The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1) has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6. This value is below values of R0 estimated for the 1918–1919 pandemic strain (mean R0~2: range 1.4 to 2.8) and is comparable to R0 values estimated for seasonal strains of influenza (mean R0 1.3: range 0.9 to 2.1). By reviewing results from previous modeling studies we conclude it is theoretically possible that a pandemic of H1N1 could be contained. However it may not be feasible, even in resource-rich countries, to achieve the necessary levels of vaccination and treatment for control. As a recent modeling study has shown, a global cooperative strategy will be essential in order to control a pandemic. This strategy will require resource-rich countries to share their vaccines and antivirals with resource-constrained and resource-poor countries. We conclude our review by discussing the necessity of developing new biologically complex models. We suggest that these models should simultaneously track the transmission dynamics of multiple strains of influenza in bird, pig and human populations. Such models could be critical for identifying effective new interventions, and informing pandemic preparedness planning. Finally, we show that by modeling cross-species transmission it may be possible to predict the emergence of pandemic strains of influenza

Models of epidemics: when contact repetition and clustering should be included

Background The spread of infectious disease is determined by biological factors, e.g. the duration of the infectious period, and social factors, e.g. the arrangement of potentially contagious contacts. Repetitiveness and clustering of contacts are known to be relevant factors influencing the transmission of droplet or contact transmitted diseases. However, we do not yet completely know under what conditions repetitiveness and clustering should be included for realistically modelling disease spread. Methods We compare two different types of individual-based models: One assumes random mixing without repetition of contacts, whereas the other assumes that the same contacts repeat day-by-day. The latter exists in two variants, with and without clustering. We systematically test and compare how the total size of an outbreak differs between these model types depending on the key parameters transmission probability, number of contacts per day, duration of the infectious period, different levels of clustering and varying proportions of repetitive contacts. Results The simulation runs under different parameter constellations provide the following results: The difference between both model types is highest for low numbers of contacts per day and low transmission probabilities. The number of contacts and the transmission probability have a higher influence on this difference than the duration of the infectious period. Even when only minor parts of the daily contacts are repetitive and clustered can there be relevant differences compared to a purely random mixing model. Conclusion We show that random mixing models provide acceptable estimates of the total outbreak size if the number of contacts per day is high or if the per-contact transmission probability is high, as seen in typical childhood diseases such as measles. In the case of very short infectious periods, for instance, as in Norovirus, models assuming repeating contacts will also behave similarly as random mixing models. If the number of daily contacts or the transmission probability is low, as assumed for MRSA or Ebola, particular consideration should be given to the actual structure of potentially contagious contacts when designing the model.ISSN:1742-468