Effects of the urban heat island on the phenology of Odonata in London, UK

Urbanisation is one of the major drivers of ecosystem change, and includes increased temperatures in cities leading to an urban heat island (UHI). This study quantified the phenological response of odonates across London, UK, from 1990 to 2012 using a database of 1,031,277 historical sightings. The ordinal flight dates of each species were used to calculate the leading edge, middle, and trailing edge of the flight period (P5, P50, and P95, respectively). The results suggest that the phenology of odonates is affected by the UHI only at a community level: no significant changes in the P5 or P50 of the flight period were found, although the P95 shows a mean advance of 4.13 days compared to rural areas, thus suggesting a contraction of the flight period in urban areas. However, only one individual species (Sympetrum striolatum) exhibited an advance in the P95 of the flight period in urban areas compared to rural areas. On the other hand, climate change (minimum temperature) had a much stronger impact on the phenology of odonates at the community level with a significant advance of 6.9 days°C-1 in the P5 of the flight period, 3.1 days°C-1 in the P50, and 3.3 days°C-1 in the P95 flight date. Similarly, a significant advance in P5 was found in 7 of the 15 species tested in response to minimum temperature and 2 species showed a significant advance in P50 in response to minimum temperature, but no species showed a shift in the P95 flight date due to minimum temperature. As shown in previous studies, life history influences the phenological response of odonates, with spring species and those species lacking an egg diapause being the most responsive to increased temperatures, although summer species and species with obligate egg diapause also respond to the UHI by advancing the P95 by 3.8 days and 4.5 days respectively compared to rural areas, thus contracting the flight period. The present study shows that the UHI has negligible impacts on emergence patterns of odonates compared to climate change, which may result from the capacity of aquatic habitats to buffer the microclimatic conditions of the surrounding terrestrial habitats. We conclude by highlighting the importance of climate change on freshwater habitats over the impacts of the UHI